Italy a bad design

[gamerman01]

@chompers:

If the German sub doesn’t kill the transport/destroyer in SZ 106 there’ll be another infantry and tank in GB, plus you’re missing the 1 french infantry there as well.  If Germany loses even one plane sinking the GB fleet turn 1 this is a real dicey attack.  Big potential gains but big potential losses as well.

Exactly.  Why do you assume Germany will have all aircraft she starts with?

[domicron]

Not even close to broken.  Play more games.

[Imperious Leader]

If the German sub doesn’t kill the transport/destroyer in SZ 106,

Oh you mean against the German bomber and submarine?

So you mean a 4 and 2 vs a 2?

Yes quite right, so bring that extra fighter from France and make it 100%

4,3,2 vs 2

Yea thats much better. Yes the game is not busted if that destroyer rolls 3 hits in a row and the Germans miss rolling 4,4,3,3,2,2,…. Thats pretty optimistic thinking. I think they still sell loaded dice in vegas…

[Imperious Leader]

If Germany loses even one plane sinking the GB fleet turn 1 this is a real dicey attack.

Yea with 47 to 28, losing that plane will drop the odds to 44 to 28. Yep pretty even odds i must say.

When you played this how many times did UK win?

[chompers]

Wait wha?  SZ 106 is off the coast of Canada.  How is the bomber attacking it?

[BJCard]

Kind of dumb to have UK not be able to declare war on Italy on its turn… Hell, it can declare war on Japan on any turn and Japan is half a world away!

By the way IL, UK has 3 Fighters on UK, 12 Inf, (1 Original, 1 French, 1 from Canada, 9 bought), 1 Arm (from Canada) So that is 2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/3/4/4/4 = 39, so yes, the loss of one German fighter makes it a pretty even battle.

[chompers]

I believe he’s assuming GB sinks the Italian fleet turn 1.

[BJCard]

@chompers:

I believe he’s assuming GB sinks the Italian fleet turn 1.

So am I.  If you bring the fleet back then you can have a a Tac Bomber on UK too for a total of 42 on D.

[Striker]

I’ve run the odds in triple A(which will slightly skew results towards Axis,as right now the calculator assumes tactical bombers only ever attack on 4, when of course they will be attacking on 3 after the right amount of casualties).

ASSUMING:
Defense
11 allied infantry(1 brit 1 french at placement, 9 bought the first turn, Canadian transport sunk)
3 fighters

Attacker:
4 fighters, 3 tactical, 1 bomber, SB BB, SB CA, 3 tanks, and 3 Infantry

56% of the time the attacker will win.  Basically you are doing a game deciding gamble on turn two.  And this is assuming Germany took no fighter casualties G1! If even one dies then the odds are 41% win or worse for the attacker.

If I see the 9 inf defense build by UK as Germany I’m not going to go for the attack. It took probably an hour to set up the game, I’d at least like it to remain interesting for a couple rounds in.  Might as flip a coin to see who wins.

[calvinhobbesliker]

@Striker:

I’ve run the odds in triple A(which will slightly skew results towards Axis,as right now the calculator assumes tactical bombers only ever attack on 4, when of course they will be attacking on 3 after the right amount of casualties).

ASSUMING:
Defense
11 allied infantry(1 brit 1 french at placement, 9 bought the first turn, Canadian transport sunk)
3 fighters

Attacker:
4 fighters, 3 tactical, 1 bomber, SB BB, SB CA, 3 tanks, and 3 Infantry

56% of the time the attacker will win.  Basically you are doing a game deciding gamble on turn two.  And this is assuming Germany took no fighter casualties G1! If even one dies then the odds are 41% win or worse for the attacker.

If I see the 9 inf defense build by UK as Germany I’m not going to go for the attack. It took probably an hour to set up the game, I’d at least like it to remain interesting for a couple rounds in.  Might as flip a coin to see who wins.

Did this calculation include the AA gun?

[jeffdestroyer]

AA gun will likely take out at least one aircraft.

(UK should move its tac. bomber to Uk if all German air force is intact and block sz with DD to negate German BB, CA support)

Some of the German Tact bombers start losing the “4” on Rd2, the odds start to swing to the allies if you run a single round simulations after that point.

I do not see how all aircraft stay intact after the naval battles on G1 and none gets killed by AA gun on G2.

The first Sea Lion roll is more important than ever for the Germans which puts Sea Lion attack below 50% It could go down to 30% since one land unit must survive.  (Frood calc.)

Its like an onside Kick in a football succeeding.  See it once (G  1) but not usually two in a row (G2)

I still think that German TR builds are needed to to distract UK, thus help Italian Navy, support Barb and support Norway in the long run

[gamerman01]

One more thing, right?  Japan can’t attack J1.  If they do, the Americans can land a bomber in London.

[Imperious Leader]

Kind of dumb to have UK not be able to declare war on Italy on its turn… Hell, it can declare war on Japan on any turn and Japan is half a world away!

UK can’t declare war on Japan. Again the axis player does this. Of course eventually its at war if Japan does nothing for 3 turns.

By the way IL, UK has 3 Fighters on UK, 12 Inf, (1 Original, 1 French, 1 from Canada, 9 bought), 1 Arm (from Canada) So that is 2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/3/4/4/4 = 39, so yes, the loss of one German fighter makes it a pretty even battle.

OK UK starts with 2 infantry and 3 fighters, then UK brings the Inf from Canada and buys 9 more. But remember the Germans sub in SZ 109 most likely will remain and that destroyer and fighters will have to fight it. The sub can hit back too.

But lets assume the best. UK has according to you attacked the Italian fleet and did not block SZ 110. I have always maintained that by buying 9 INF and Bringing the fleet block that sealion is averted 100%.

UK has: 2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/4/3 and one AA gun vs  SB 4,3, and 4,4,4,4,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,1,1,1

or 14 hits and 31 points against 14 hits and a total of 47, doing Low Luck UK kills 5 units, and Germany kills 7-8 units, leaving UK with 6-7 units and 17-19 points against Germany’s 9 units and a total of 27

On the next round Germany kills another 4+ units and UK kills 3. The balance is now UK either has just 1 infantry and 2 planes or just 2 planes. Germany is at 6 units ( tank, bomber, 4 fighters)

The rest is clear to anybody, UK falls. Italy brings the fighter to London and game over. Nobody can do anything to save it.

This is the result if UK does not block at SZ 110. AS i have maintained and proven many times over, If Germany buys 1 CV and 2 AP and commits to Sealion, and UK does not bring the carrier block with fighters and destroyer and does not buy 9 land units, UK will fall unless dice really go bad. This is a forced move sequence for a number of players and should not be modeled in the game. Italy should be neutral till its own turn.

56% of the time the attacker will win.  Basically you are doing a game deciding gamble on turn two.

I will take a 12% margin of victory offered on the second turn any day. The real problem is we should not have to be in this position if UK was restricted into attacking Italy and Italy was neutral till their own turn. Then and only then Germany could consider another buy because it does not need to foil the threat of losing the Italian navy.

Germany knows that if UK blocks with CV , DD and 2 fighters and buys 9 INF, that sealion is not possible, but it also knows that not buying a CV and 2 AP will cause UK to most likely destroy the Italian fleet on the west coast.

Now players don’t have this “thing” to deal with every-game. It is solved by the restriction on UK.

[almashir]

Well, I’ve only had a chance to play one game since I got Global, but the Italians didn’t have any problems.  The German player threw every ship, sub, and aircraft he possibly could against the Royal Navy.  When he was done, there was not a single British ship left in sea zones 109, 110, 111, or 112.  Of course, in the process this left him with not quite enough firepower to take France on turn one.  He tried again on turn 2 and failed.  The Italians actually ended up taking Paris on their turn 2, and the Germans took London on turn 2, at which point the Luftwaffe was down to 2 fighters, and the Germans had nothing but their starting forces on the Soviet border.  The British had to use their Gibraltar fleet to re-take the UK, leaving the Italians in a good position.

Meanwhile, the Japanese had run amok and wiped out every Chinese unit on the map, and cutting off the Burma Road.  This prodded the British to declare war on turn 2 to reopen the Burma road and push the Japanese back.  On turn 3, the Japanese wiped out the US fleet that had just moved to Hawaii.  That’s where we left it, because we ran out of time.

The point of all this is that the Italians were probably in the best shape of anyone (except maybe the US, which has the income to replace a fleet every turn).  Of course, I think the Italian player was probably the most skilled of all of us playing.

[Quark]

I just want to point out that even if Italy loses its initial fleet there is way to build it up again. Build an airbase on Sicily and you have a CV with unlimited capacity in SZ 95, using the scramble ability, and Italy can build up in good order. After an initial exchange where Germany retaliates in the Med I dont think it would take more than the 2 Italian and maybee 2 German Ftrs to make a strike against a small Italian fleet in SZ 95 a bad deal for Allies.

As an Italian player that lost the SC 95 on I1 I would save my 10 starting IPC and let Germany clear SC 95 on G2. If the French fleet is still around i has to be destroyed as well. By then there is not much of an allied naval presence left and the Italian SZ 97 can transport 2 inf to Sicily where you place your air base with 2 ftrs. Remaining IPC can be put into a sub, destroyer or transport as needed.

Germany can help out with additional ftrs as needed. Granted that this is a opportunity cost for Germany but it keeps the Med and African theater open and forces the allies to keep defences in the area.

Cheers

Quark

[oztea]

IL is right, the payoff in the Med runs the risk of losing london far to easily

And in my game it didnt matter….

Either italy is the only power in the med with boats on its 2nd to 5th turn with 2 Crusiers, 1 Destroyer and a Battleship or…

Italy is the only power in the med with boats on its 2nd to 5th turn with a cruiser and a destoyer

Killing the boats helps…yes. But doing it later is easier.

[bugoo]

I think the real question is, will London falling on turn 3 (I just can’t see it happening turn 2, it would require insanely good dice on G1 and G2) mean the end of the game?  Or will the red monster just start crushing the Germans at that point?

[BJCard]

@Imperious:

Kind of dumb to have UK not be able to declare war on Italy on its turn… Hell, it can declare war on Japan on any turn and Japan is half a world away!

UK can’t declare war on Japan. Again the axis player does this. Of course eventually its at war if Japan does nothing for 3 turns.

By the way IL, UK has 3 Fighters on UK, 12 Inf, (1 Original, 1 French, 1 from Canada, 9 bought), 1 Arm (from Canada) So that is 2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/3/4/4/4 = 39, so yes, the loss of one German fighter makes it a pretty even battle.

OK UK starts with 2 infantry and 3 fighters, then UK brings the Inf from Canada and buys 9 more. But remember the Germans sub in SZ 109 most likely will remain and that destroyer and fighters will have to fight it. The sub can hit back too.

But lets assume the best. UK has according to you attacked the Italian fleet and did not block SZ 110. I have always maintained that by buying 9 INF and Bringing the fleet block that sealion is averted 100%.

UK has: 2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/2/4/3 and one AA gun vs  SB 4,3, and 4,4,4,4,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,1,1,1

or 14 hits and 31 points against 14 hits and a total of 47, doing Low Luck UK kills 5 units, and Germany kills 7-8 units, leaving UK with 6-7 units and 17-19 points against Germany’s 9 units and a total of 27

On the next round Germany kills another 4+ units and UK kills 3. The balance is now UK either has just 1 infantry and 2 planes or just 2 planes. Germany is at 6 units ( tank, bomber, 4 fighters)

The rest is clear to anybody, UK falls. Italy brings the fighter to London and game over. Nobody can do anything to save it.

This is the result if UK does not block at SZ 110. AS i have maintained and proven many times over, If Germany buys 1 CV and 2 AP and commits to Sealion, and UK does not bring the carrier block with fighters and destroyer and does not buy 9 land units, UK will fall unless dice really go bad. This is a forced move sequence for a number of players and should not be modeled in the game. Italy should be neutral till its own turn.

56% of the time the attacker will win.  Basically you are doing a game deciding gamble on turn two.

I will take a 12% margin of victory offered on the second turn any day. The real problem is we should not have to be in this position if UK was restricted into attacking Italy and Italy was neutral till their own turn. Then and only then Germany could consider another buy because it does not need to foil the threat of losing the Italian navy.

Germany knows that if UK blocks with CV , DD and 2 fighters and buys 9 INF, that sealion is not possible, but it also knows that not buying a CV and 2 AP will cause UK to most likely destroy the Italian fleet on the west coast.

Now players don’t have this “thing” to deal with every-game. It is solved by the restriction on UK.

UK has 3 fighters in London, you only have one 4.  If those fighters are defending the sea on the CV, then the BB/CA bombardment cannot happen.

Secondly, the UK can attack Japan on ANY turn.  If the UK attacks Japan, the US is not brought into the war yet.

[Imperious Leader]

UK has 3 fighters in London, you only have one 4.  If those fighters are defending the sea on the CV, then the BB/CA bombardment cannot happen.

Well no.

UK does have 3 fighters, Germany has 3 tactical bombers at 4, 4 fighters at 3 and one bomber at 4, plus 3 tanks and 3 infantry.

Thats was the old system. The improvement is this:

Germany now builds one DD and 3 AP. Now they got 4 tanks and 4 infantry.

This forces uk to attack the German fleet at SZ 112 which is 1 BB, 1 CA, 1 DD and uk has 1 CV, 1 DD and 4 planes. It must destroy the fleet and keep at least one ship to block the transports.

If it still goes for Italy navy, and brings the CV , DD and tactical to attack Italian fleet, then it has no block and Germany will take the Island. If it however, brings the DD and 3 fighters to attack the 3 German ships and does not win the battle resulting in UK keeping the DD to block ( which means the fighters are sacrificed), it can still stop the German transports in the Baltic with a block.

However the attack against the Italian fleet is now just a CV, DD and 2 planes: 4,3, and 2. This attack will fail.

[BJCard]

Fair enough