AndrewAAGamer Solo Test
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Caen [dice 1d1000<=1]
St Lo [dice 1d1000<=1]
1 [dice 1d1000<=1]
29 [dice 1d1000<=1]
17 [dice 1d1000<=1] -
1d1000<=1: 29; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 843; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 459; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 247; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 962; Hits: 0 -
TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: AlliedFighters round 7
TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: D-Day 2 fix
Game History
Round: 7 Movement Reset - AlliedFighters AlliedFighters collect 0 PUs; end with 0 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
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St Lo [dice 1d1000<=1]
1 [dice 1d1000<=1]
29 [dice 1d1000<=1]
17 [dice 1d1000<=1] -
1d1000<=1: 847; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 1000; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 915; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 538; Hits: 0 -
St Lo [dice 1d1000<=1]
29 [dice 1d1000<=1] -
1d1000<=1: 553; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 68; Hits: 0 -
TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: AlliedFighters round 8
TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: D-Day 2 fix
Game History
Round: 8 Movement Reset - AlliedFighters AlliedFighters collect 0 PUs; end with 0 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
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TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: AlliedFighters round 8
TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: D-Day 2 fix
Game History
Round: 8 Movement Reset - AlliedFighters AlliedFighters collect 0 PUs; end with 0 PUs Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from St.LoG: 1 armour EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to St.LoG: 1 artillery EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by USA-UK from A21: 2 USAinfantrys EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from G21: 2 infantry EDIT: Turning off Edit ModeCombat Hit Differential Summary :
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St Lo [dice 1d1000<=1]
Cherbourg [dice 1d1000<=1]
21 [dice 1d1000<=1] -
1d1000<=1: 571; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 631; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 888; Hits: 0 -
TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: AlliedFighters round 9
TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: D-Day 2 fix
Game History
Round: 9 Movement Reset - AlliedFighters AlliedFighters collect 0 PUs; end with 0 PUsCombat Hit Differential Summary :
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@AndrewAAGamer said in AndrewAAgamer (Allies) vs. Germany (Ragnell804):
Odds of at least 1 area area with Bad dice
65.30%
Odds of at least 2 areas with Bad dice
This is slightly more complicated to do. We have to add up percentages of all different possibilities that include this result. Let’s write some of them out. We have four areas, EG - CAEN - St. Lo - Cherbourg. A 1 means bad dice in the area, a 0 means no bad dice. Let’s look at bad dice in two areas first.
EG - CAEN - St. Lo - Cherbourg
1 - 1 - 0 - 0 = 23% * 23% * 77% * 77% = 3.13%
1 - 0 - 1 - 0 = 23% * 77% * 23% * 77% = same calculation = 3.13%
1 - 0 - 0 - 1 = …
0 - 1 - 1 -0 = …
0 - 1 - 0 - 1 = …
0 - 0 - 1 - 1 = …
As you can see, we just have the same calculation 6 times. The 6 comes from the total number of combinations of two numbers out of a total of four numbers. This can be calculated directly on a calculator using the Combination Formula, which is defined as follows.
Most calculators have a built-in function to calculate this (i.e. you can type in 4C2 instead of the longer expression on the right side)And not to forget, we also have to include the possibilities that have bad dice in three or four areas, because those are also included from the wording “at least two areas”.
I am not going to write out the combinations for that, now we can simply use the Combination Formula.
4C3 = 4 and 4C4 = 1 (and 4C2 = 6)The entire calculation is as follows.
(23% * 23% * 77% * 77%) * 4C2 + (23% * 23% * 23% * 77%)*4C3 + (23%^4)*4C4 = 22.84%
Odds of at least 1 area with Very Bad dice
8.70%
Odds of at least 2 areas of Very Bad dice
Same logic, however the percentages change to 2.25% and 97.75%
(2.25% * 2.25% * 97.75% * 97.75%) * 6 + (2.25% * 2.25% * 2.25% * 97.75%) * 4 + (2.25%^4)*1= 0.3%You can even create a general formula for this if you want, however for now this will do I think.
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And by the way, the matrix thing you did was clever. That way you would indeed find the probabilities of bad dice and very bad dice in the first place ^^
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@AndrewAAGamer said in AndrewAAgamer (Allies) vs. Germany (Ragnell804):
BTW if you did that it would be awesome if you used 16% / 68% /16% as the low, normal and high parameters.
I missed this. Currently the calculation are based on 15% - 70% - 15%. Is that a big deal? Where do the 16% and 68% come from? They seem familiar but I can’t put my finger on it. It had to with the standard deviations I believe.
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Is the purpose of this tactical, strategic or mathematical?
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LOL - that’s me. I can be clever with math but I am not good with math formulas.
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@VictoryFirst said in AndrewAAGamer Solo Test:
@AndrewAAGamer said in AndrewAAgamer (Allies) vs. Germany (Ragnell804):
BTW if you did that it would be awesome if you used 16% / 68% /16% as the low, normal and high parameters.
I missed this. Currently the calculation are based on 15% - 70% - 15%. Is that a big deal? Where do the 16% and 68% come from? They seem familiar but I can’t put my finger on it. It had to with the standard deviations I believe.
You are quite correct. 68.2% is the standard deviation of the Bell Curve.
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@crockett36 said in AndrewAAGamer Solo Test:
Is the purpose of this tactical, strategic or mathematical?
Both strategic and mathematical. Their is a broad discussion among a few of us, both on and off this site, as to how balanced DDay is, so some of us on this site are doing some testing to determine if it is balanced and if not how badly out of balance it is.
Originally some said it was as bad as 10% Allies vs 90% Axis or 20% Allies vs 80% Axis while I was saying 50% vs 50%. But based on the testing I am doing now it appears I was wrong - it does not appear to be 50-50. Not sure how much out of whack yet, still trying to figure that out. My current guess is 30-70 based on some of the numbers VictoryFirst is showing.
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In my test I found that there were a few land combat battles that had a 90% plus hit against 1 unit that I did not take the hit unless there was carry over from a previous battle. I found this to be rather disturbing as quite a few times there was no hit. With a 90% hit chance I am thinking it is better to take the hit, only a 10% difference, rather than missing, a 90% difference. So ONLY if their is 1 targeted unit left and the rolling side gets 90% plus I am taking it as a hit every time going forward.
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