Am I winning or Losing: data analysis of high-level BM4 games

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

With the release of Elo rankings, I could identify BM4 League games between two high-level players of similar talent (no more than 100 elo point gap in skill level and greater than 1700 average Elo). I eliminated a few games which had a player surrender due to personal reasons, and analyzed 17 games from the last three years.

The following graph shows the magic cutoff point of a 20 point Allied advantage after turn 10 which guarantees victory or defeat. This is a useful threshold to calculate which territories you want to hold in order to ensure victory.

Interestingly, Moscow and India hold for a much longer time than in the “old” days. This isn’t surprising as the balance mod gives more income to Russia and handicaps Japan. The improvements of Axis gameplay has allowed them to eventually overcome Allied defenses despite territory advantages that previously would have marked doom.

[AndrewAAGamer]

Okay, I admit I am not a chart guy. Are you saying 9 Allied victory’s had a $20+ advantage in monies after Turn 10 while the 8 Axis victory’s had less than a $20 advantage for Allies after Turn 10? If so, that is really interesting!

[SuperbattleshipYamato]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris

I’m a total idiot when it comes to tournaments, but what’s elo? I’m very curious.

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@AndrewAAGamer yes, you can see the income advantage of the Allied player at Turn 10 and have a very good idea who will win the match eventually. More than 20 PUs/turn means a very high likelihood of a W.

Dice don’t matter too much after that point. There aren’t that many major battles that are less than a 100% chance of victory for the attacker.

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@SuperbattleshipYamato same ranking system that Chess uses: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

Beat someone with an Elo rating much better than you and your value goes way up. Lose to someone with a rating much worse than you and your value goes way down.

[SuperbattleshipYamato]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris

Thank you!

If you don’t mind me asking, is there a list with all elo ratings of every players known?

[pacifiersboard]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris
I got a question: Is the compared income

• cash at end of round 10

• production (regardless of convoy blockades) at end of round

• or production regardless of convoy blockades at end of each Power’s turn?

[pacifiersboard]

@SuperbattleshipYamato

@MrRoboto said in Proposal for a new, ELO-based, ranking system:

Maybe try this link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Larckt6iOuBZtZ-AVzDPv-HEofZJdeN8ptXXotun0Og/edit?usp=sharing

[SuperbattleshipYamato]

@pacifiersboard

Thank you!

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@pacifiersboard net income earned during turn 10. That has convoy damage subtracted from the gross income.

I went into the save files and looked at the PU totals at the end of the France turn.

[MrRoboto]

@SuperbattleshipYamato said in Am I winning or Losing: data analysis of high-level BM4 games:

If you don’t mind me asking, is there a list with all elo ratings of every players known?

I created that ELO list about 2 months ago.
It counts every League game (@gamerman01 and @farmboy are dissecting the forum for all games retroactively) done on this forum.

It will officially be introduced Jan 1st 2024.

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris
Wow that amount is way lower than I expected. I didn’t think 20 IPC Lead for the Allies was enough by turn 10 (and some games are already over before turn 10).

[SuperbattleshipYamato]

@MrRoboto

Very, very impressive!

[gamerman01]

All BM games have been entered (goes back to about 2015) and do need to be error checked by a 2nd person.

I have entered a few more years back just in the last week, and data goes back to Nov 2014 so far.
G40 came out in 2012 and there are some games in 2012. 2013 and 2014 is going to be well over 1,000 games to enter, and there was no post league results thread then, so the entry is going to become much more difficult. (Actual ending dates of games matter with ELO method, and sometimes the players will banter back and forth days after the resignation).

I’m stuck temporarily right now on the transition from the post games results thread to game by game review in the league games forum (imagine if someone made a post to a game a month after it’s over).

So the all-time OOB rankings will definitely change significantly after 2014 and 2013 are all entered.

Again, all BM games are entered, so analyze to your heart’s content.

It must have taken some effort for ABH to eliminate games that were resigned early for personal reasons. Nice.

[gamerman01]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris
Wow that amount is way lower than I expected. I didn’t think 20 IPC Lead for the Allies was enough by turn 10 (and some games are already over before turn 10).

I think the same.
I guess in my current game I was up 14 at the end of round 10, and it’s a pretty tight game. So 1 piece of anecdotal evidence that seems to confirm your finding

[gamerman01]

@Arthur-Bomber-Harris said in Am I winning or Losing: data analysis of high-level BM4 games:

Interestingly, Moscow and India hold for a much longer time than in the “old” days. This isn’t surprising as the balance mod gives more income to Russia and handicaps Japan.

The India NO of +3 that is easy to hold is also quite significant. +9 instead of +6 per turn

I’ve never done high bid OOB, where like a fighter to India and infantry in a couple territories around there would seem to basically make up for this NO

But like you said “old days” when everyone did small bids like 10-20, India was a house of cards and Russia had a pretty bad time, yes.