A Bad Opening I Might Play

[rockrobinoff]

If I was playing an A&A player I thought a great deal better than me, I might go for this:

Assume tech, NOs, and dice. No bid. Dardenelles Closed (or not).

to karellia: 3 inf + art and 3 fighers + cruiser bombard = 78%

to SZ 2: 2 subs and a fighter = 83%

to egypt: 2 inf + art + 2 tanks + bomber = 75%

grab baltic, east poland, and ukraine in standard ways (a big stack in baltic preferable -
to retake karellia after Russia takes in back)

If it all works out you collect 52 IPCs and are running all over Russia. The Eastern Front
plays itself from that position.

The big however is that it really blows if any of those go wrong, especielly if you lose
extra planes in Karellia. Germany down planes and Britain up ships is a handful. That said,
Kar+EGY+SZ2 should all work out approxinmately 50% of the time, and is an easy victory.

[critmonster]

So you are writing off the Italian fleet and using them to fortify France @ 3 inf/ turn?

[axis_roll]

@critmonster:

So you are writing off the Italian fleet and using them to fortify France @ 3 inf/ turn?

With the mega quick punch described above, it might be a good thing to trade the italian navy for some uk planes?

[Zhukov44]

Probably safer is go with a 4th fig to Karelia and use the 2 subs to attack the destroyer/tranny.

Karelia is too dicey with the aa guns.  It’s more tempting in low luck if there is no bid unit there.

The Italian fleet will be safe IF there is success in Egy, so 25% of the time it’s at risk.

Re. Egy…no doubt it’s always risky but against an equal oppo not taking moderate risks might be my undoing.  If I know I’m better than my opponent then I can hold out for 90%+ battles only.  But if my opponent is equally skilled and is willing to try the 75% fights while I am not then the odds will favor him.  So if I got a 75% shot at those irreplaceable colonial units…usually I want that shot.

[rockrobinoff]

my point is about going for egy in concert with the karellia and SZ 2. if it all works, it is game over, so it is almost beside the point that it is “safer” to go for the dest+tranny combo, or whether or not someone should attack egypt in other openings.

that said, i think this is a bad opening - that axis has a safer way to victory, but if i was playing a perfect opponent (or advising a weak player how they might defeat a strong one) I might offer up this ‘all or nothing’ strat.

[Zhukov44]

With dice, it’s too risky as you say. In low luck, going Karelia with 4 figs isn’t bad because Germany shouldn’t lose any more than 2 planes and (with luck) could get away without losing any.  Using only 3 figs is unacceptable–the aa is 50% to hit and then it will probably cost all 3 figs to take Karelia.  So if Germany is determined to strike both Karelia and Egy then forgoing 2 is a must methinks.

[Corbeau Blanc]

You can check my game vs Butcher.

I did a similar opening:

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=15189.0

I went to Karelia with 4 fighters, 3 inf + art, cruiser’s bombard.

I splitted the rest of my attacks between to hit all UK’s fleet, hoping to end up at least even. It was not a very successful result in Atlantic, I could have cut down my losses by foregoing seazone 9 where I was a bit greedy and sending it to sea zone 12.

All in all, as you can see, Italians are very strong despite foregoing Egypt G1 and bad results in Atlantic. Nothing prevents Japan from sending ships, fighters and bombers to Europe. A fact many axis players ignore.

[Krupp Steel]

@Corbeau:

You can check my game vs Butcher.

I did a similar opening:

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=15189.0

I went to Karelia with 4 fighters, 3 inf + art, cruiser’s bombard.

I splitted the rest of my attacks between to hit all UK’s fleet, hoping to end up at least even. It was not a very successful result in Atlantic, I could have cut down my losses by foregoing seazone 9 where I was a bit greedy and sending it to sea zone 12.

All in all, as you can see, Italians are very strong despite foregoing Egypt G1 and bad results in Atlantic. Nothing prevents Japan from sending ships, fighters and bombers to Europe. A fact many axis players ignore.

During the NCM you can move units to territories that were captured the same turn? If so i’ve been missing out.

[Yoshi]

yep, this is legal (and really usefull)

[Corbeau Blanc]

Yep, only planes can’t land on a territory you just conquered. Inf / art / tanks are fair game :)

It’s really what you could call a Blitzkrieg:

• Attack the frontline territory with inf/art only, keeping tanks in reserve
• Take the next territory with amphibious assault or paratroopers if you use techs
• Move in all armor in NCM deep into ennemy territory

If well executed, it can be a game ender or at least enable you to bypass a deadzone.