L22 Pejon_88 (X) vs. Gamerman01 (A+15), BM4, game #2

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Ok, great! Would be very interested to briefly hear what your mind was conjuring there if you don’t mind? :)

[gamerman01]

Yup, can’t say right away and it was probably foolish anyway - I’m so used to Egypt being the last city.

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Interesting to discuss after the game if not before then.

[Pejon_88]

Round: 7

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 13 infantry, 1 submarine, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 5 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 armour moved from Yunnan to Burma
              Japanese take Burma from UK_Pacific
        1 armour moved from Burma to Yunnan
        1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Szechwan
        1 infantry moved from Kwangsi to Hunan
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yunnan to Szechwan
        1 bomber moved from Kiangsi to Szechwan
        2 infantry moved from Kiangsi to Anhwe
        1 transport moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Kwangtung to 20 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 20 Sea Zone to 19 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 19 Sea Zone to Manchuria
        1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Kwangtung to 20 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 20 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Japan to 6 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 6 Sea Zone to Korea
        1 fighter moved from Dutch New Guinea to 55 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 36 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 20 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 19 Sea Zone to Manchuria
        2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Kiangsu to Anhwe
        1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Kiangsu to Manchuria
        1 bomber moved from Kiangsi to Manchuria
        3 fighters moved from Japan to Korea
        1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 20 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Yunnan to Hunan

    Combat - Japanese
        Battle in 55 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 submarine
            British defend with 1 submarine
                Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 55 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in 55 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 submarine in 55 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Japanese and 1 submarine owned by the British lost in 55 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 destroyer and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 submarine
            Casualties for British: 1 submarine
        Battle in Manchuria
            Japanese attack with 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
            Russians defend with 2 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers in Manchuria, round 2 : 2/7 hits, 3,17 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 2 infantry in Manchuria, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Manchuria
            Japanese win, taking Manchuria from Chinese with 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry
        Battle in Hunan
            Japanese attack with 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
            Chinese defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Hunan, round 2 : 3/5 hits, 2,50 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Hunan, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Hunan
            Japanese win with 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry
        Battle in Szechwan
            Japanese attack with 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            Chinese defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Szechwan, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 2,00 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Szechwan, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Szechwan
            Japanese win with 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry
        Battle in Anhwe
            Japanese attack with 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
            Chinese defend with 2 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Anhwe, round 2 : 1/6 hits, 2,67 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 2 infantry in Anhwe, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Anhwe
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Anhwe, round 3 : 4/6 hits, 2,67 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Anhwe, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Anhwe
            Japanese win, taking Anhwe from Chinese with 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for Chinese: 2 infantry
        Battle in Korea
            Japanese attack with 3 fighters and 2 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 cruiser in Korea, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Korea, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Korea
            Japanese win, taking Korea from Russians with 3 fighters and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        3 fighters moved from Korea to Japan
        1 bomber moved from Manchuria to Japan
        1 fighter and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Manchuria to 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Anhwe to 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea
        1 fighter moved from 55 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Anhwe to 19 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Hunan to 35 Sea Zone
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yunnan to Philippines
        1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Guam to 21 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 marines moved from French Indo China to 36 Sea Zone
        5 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys moved from French Indo China to Yunnan
        1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 2 marines and 1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Szechwan to French Indo China
        1 destroyer and 1 submarine moved from 20 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        4 carriers, 2 destroyers and 1 submarine moved from 20 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Hunan to Kwangtung

    Place Units - Japanese
        1 submarine, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport placed in 6 Sea Zone
        4 infantry placed in Japan
        3 infantry placed in Kiangsu
        3 infantry placed in Kwangtung
        3 infantry placed in French Indo China

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Japanese collect 55 PUs; end with 55 PUs
        Objective Japanese 6 Home Islands: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 58 PUs
        Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 63 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese regular : 0,67
Japanese regular : -1,33
Russians regular : -0,33
British regular : 0,83

Great defense round.

J7.tsvg

[gamerman01]

Was on a pretty miserable sub defense streak in my games, so that one is a surprise. A lot of plinking until Anhwe and Korea, yes, stiff

Today I completely whiffed on UK1 Zone 97, first round attack
Good thing he didn’t scramble.

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Almost like in this game. Well not whiffed, but I could save my BB.

[gamerman01]

My brain is in a different place right now -

Which battle was that?

I’m working on what looks like a huge error in the Triple A calculator. I think I might have found it years ago but forgot.

[gamerman01]

Oh man.
Triple A calculator isn’t rolling for the AAAs at all.

120 bombers vs 40 AAA and 1 infantry

Calculator has the attacker only losing 1/3 of 1 bomber.

I get wrong results on small, normal battles too. Time to alert everyone I think.

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 When you attacked in SZ97 and I scrambled. Maybe UK2 or UK3.

[Pejon_88]

@pejon_88 Hmm I get 60 bombers versus 10 AA (should be 6 hits) an average of 55.01 attackers left on run count 20k

[Pejon_88]

@pejon_88 Adding one inf in def gives attackers left 54.67.

Doesn’t sound wrong to me?

[Pejon_88]

@pejon_88 My bad forgot the AAA shoots at maximum 3 air. If I’m not mistaken 60 bombers versus 20AAA should result in 30 attackers left, but calculator says 50? Adding an inf -> 49.71.

Am I thinking this entirely wrong?

[Pejon_88]

@pejon_88 1/6 + 1/6 +1/6 = 3/6, i.e 50% chance that 1AAA hits 1 air. Damn that means that there should be 40 attackers left, not 30 right?!

[gamerman01]

Survived with 2 planes and a battleship on a 59/35
That was even worse for me than I was thinking

[gamerman01]

No, I think you’re pretty confused.

1 AA vs 3 bombers should on average take down 1/2 a bomber

2 AA vs 6 bombers should on average take down 1 bomber

Now let me know what you’re seeing after trying a few more things.

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Yes looked now. +4TUV -> -50TUV :O

[gamerman01]

@pejon_88 said in L22 Pejon_88 (X) vs. Gamerman01 (A+15), BM4, game #2:

@pejon_88 My bad forgot the AAA shoots at maximum 3 air. If I’m not mistaken 60 bombers versus 20AAA should result in 30 attackers left, but calculator says 50? Adding an inf -> 49.71.

Am I thinking this entirely wrong?

Yeah, 20 AA against 60 bombers, so 60 rolls @ 1 or 10 hits. Sounds like your calculator is right. Is it Triple A?

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Screenshots:

Looks correct?

[gamerman01]

Yes it looks correct, thank you. Mine isn’t doing that. Good thing I didn’t start posting publicly

[gamerman01]

Now mine’s working. I’ll go back to the game I was playing when I noticed the error. Something’s strange…