L22 Pejon_88 (X) vs. Gamerman01 (A+15), BM4, game #2

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Interesting to discuss after the game if not before then.

[Pejon_88]

Round: 7

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 13 infantry, 1 submarine, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 5 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 armour moved from Yunnan to Burma
              Japanese take Burma from UK_Pacific
        1 armour moved from Burma to Yunnan
        1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Szechwan
        1 infantry moved from Kwangsi to Hunan
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yunnan to Szechwan
        1 bomber moved from Kiangsi to Szechwan
        2 infantry moved from Kiangsi to Anhwe
        1 transport moved from 19 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from Kwangtung to 20 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 20 Sea Zone to 19 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 19 Sea Zone to Manchuria
        1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Kwangtung to 20 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 20 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Japan to 6 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 6 Sea Zone to Korea
        1 fighter moved from Dutch New Guinea to 55 Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from 36 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 20 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 19 Sea Zone to Manchuria
        2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Kiangsu to Anhwe
        1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Kiangsu to Manchuria
        1 bomber moved from Kiangsi to Manchuria
        3 fighters moved from Japan to Korea
        1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 20 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Yunnan to Hunan

    Combat - Japanese
        Battle in 55 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 submarine
            British defend with 1 submarine
                Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 55 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in 55 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 submarine in 55 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Japanese and 1 submarine owned by the British lost in 55 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 destroyer and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 submarine
            Casualties for British: 1 submarine
        Battle in Manchuria
            Japanese attack with 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers
            Russians defend with 2 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers in Manchuria, round 2 : 2/7 hits, 3,17 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 2 infantry in Manchuria, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Manchuria
            Japanese win, taking Manchuria from Chinese with 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry
        Battle in Hunan
            Japanese attack with 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
            Chinese defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Hunan, round 2 : 3/5 hits, 2,50 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Hunan, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Hunan
            Japanese win with 2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry
        Battle in Szechwan
            Japanese attack with 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            Chinese defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Szechwan, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 2,00 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Szechwan, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Szechwan
            Japanese win with 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry
        Battle in Anhwe
            Japanese attack with 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
            Chinese defend with 2 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Anhwe, round 2 : 1/6 hits, 2,67 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 2 infantry in Anhwe, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Anhwe
                Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Anhwe, round 3 : 4/6 hits, 2,67 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 infantry in Anhwe, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Anhwe
            Japanese win, taking Anhwe from Chinese with 2 fighters, 2 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for Chinese: 2 infantry
        Battle in Korea
            Japanese attack with 3 fighters and 2 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 cruiser in Korea, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Korea, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Korea
            Japanese win, taking Korea from Russians with 3 fighters and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        3 fighters moved from Korea to Japan
        1 bomber moved from Manchuria to Japan
        1 fighter and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Manchuria to 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Anhwe to 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from 19 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea
        1 fighter moved from 55 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Anhwe to 19 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Hunan to 35 Sea Zone
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yunnan to Philippines
        1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Guam to 21 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 21 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        2 marines moved from French Indo China to 36 Sea Zone
        5 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys moved from French Indo China to Yunnan
        1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 2 marines and 1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Szechwan to French Indo China
        1 destroyer and 1 submarine moved from 20 Sea Zone to 35 Sea Zone
        4 carriers, 2 destroyers and 1 submarine moved from 20 Sea Zone to 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Hunan to Kwangtung

    Place Units - Japanese
        1 submarine, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport placed in 6 Sea Zone
        4 infantry placed in Japan
        3 infantry placed in Kiangsu
        3 infantry placed in Kwangtung
        3 infantry placed in French Indo China

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Japanese collect 55 PUs; end with 55 PUs
        Objective Japanese 6 Home Islands: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 58 PUs
        Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 63 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese regular : 0,67
Japanese regular : -1,33
Russians regular : -0,33
British regular : 0,83

Great defense round.

J7.tsvg

[gamerman01]

Was on a pretty miserable sub defense streak in my games, so that one is a surprise. A lot of plinking until Anhwe and Korea, yes, stiff

Today I completely whiffed on UK1 Zone 97, first round attack
Good thing he didn’t scramble.

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Almost like in this game. Well not whiffed, but I could save my BB.

[gamerman01]

My brain is in a different place right now -

Which battle was that?

I’m working on what looks like a huge error in the Triple A calculator. I think I might have found it years ago but forgot.

[gamerman01]

Oh man.
Triple A calculator isn’t rolling for the AAAs at all.

120 bombers vs 40 AAA and 1 infantry

Calculator has the attacker only losing 1/3 of 1 bomber.

I get wrong results on small, normal battles too. Time to alert everyone I think.

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 When you attacked in SZ97 and I scrambled. Maybe UK2 or UK3.

[Pejon_88]

@pejon_88 Hmm I get 60 bombers versus 10 AA (should be 6 hits) an average of 55.01 attackers left on run count 20k

[Pejon_88]

@pejon_88 Adding one inf in def gives attackers left 54.67.

Doesn’t sound wrong to me?

[Pejon_88]

@pejon_88 My bad forgot the AAA shoots at maximum 3 air. If I’m not mistaken 60 bombers versus 20AAA should result in 30 attackers left, but calculator says 50? Adding an inf -> 49.71.

Am I thinking this entirely wrong?

[Pejon_88]

@pejon_88 1/6 + 1/6 +1/6 = 3/6, i.e 50% chance that 1AAA hits 1 air. Damn that means that there should be 40 attackers left, not 30 right?!

[gamerman01]

Survived with 2 planes and a battleship on a 59/35
That was even worse for me than I was thinking

[gamerman01]

No, I think you’re pretty confused.

1 AA vs 3 bombers should on average take down 1/2 a bomber

2 AA vs 6 bombers should on average take down 1 bomber

Now let me know what you’re seeing after trying a few more things.

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Yes looked now. +4TUV -> -50TUV :O

[gamerman01]

@pejon_88 said in L22 Pejon_88 (X) vs. Gamerman01 (A+15), BM4, game #2:

@pejon_88 My bad forgot the AAA shoots at maximum 3 air. If I’m not mistaken 60 bombers versus 20AAA should result in 30 attackers left, but calculator says 50? Adding an inf -> 49.71.

Am I thinking this entirely wrong?

Yeah, 20 AA against 60 bombers, so 60 rolls @ 1 or 10 hits. Sounds like your calculator is right. Is it Triple A?

[Pejon_88]

@gamerman01 Screenshots:

Looks correct?

[gamerman01]

Yes it looks correct, thank you. Mine isn’t doing that. Good thing I didn’t start posting publicly

[gamerman01]

Now mine’s working. I’ll go back to the game I was playing when I noticed the error. Something’s strange…

[gamerman01]

It’s something in that game. I tried it with different countries, so it’s not like a UK Pacific bug or anything.

Wait, in that game it’s working for Germany vs. UK, but not vs. ANZAC

I had been doing a calculation on Japan vs. UK/ANZAC and realized the error, now it also doesn’t work Japan vs ANZAC

Germany vs. ANZAC works…
Japan’s not working against anyone. Can you replicate that? Japan on offense against AA?

[gamerman01]

US v anyone doesn’t work
Russia v anyone doesn’t work
Japan v anyone doesn’t work
Germany does work

OK, some combinations work and some don’t. Seems to depend on the combination of which powers??