League General Discussion Thread

[simon33]

You might be right, although skipping the SZ111 attack is also a bit weak. I guess you can still send the second bomber to SZ110 and just live with the scramble.You might get good rolls, maybe bad but better to chance it than making the SZ124 sub sit on the bench and then be destroyed.

[trulpen]

The sb won’t matter for a scramble in z111, if that was a point. It’s obvious Germany just wants to strafe there anyway, so it’s prefectly safe to scramble the fig. Getting stuck with the bs in z111 is very bad. I like to get 2 subs in there, but with a sub in z106 there will be only 1 if z106 is to be attacked, which I usually prefer.

[simon33]

@trulpen No I am only worried about a scramble in 110. 111 is a no brainer for the allies.

[trulpen]

Since the loss of air is greatest in z110 I believe the 2 sb’s have the greatest use in z110.

[simon33]

My point was I still think you should 111 even with the 2 subs bid even though it makes the opening shakier but I am less sure about that with the Scottish fighter bid.

Honestly, I would much rather send 1 sub to probably die in 106 than miss the 111 attack, which also kills the 124 sub anyway. Maybe that is the optimum move against the 106+111 subs bid. I guess you could also move that sub up to SZ121 but it just dies there not providing much distraction for UK.

[simon33]

should attack

[Pejon_88]

From the discussion it’s obvious that a sub in 106 is great. Either you force Germany to attack with 3 subs, which weakens all other attacks. Maybe only if you are hell bent on taking out all UK transports that’s sound. Or make it into a coin flip when they attack with 2 subs only. Also I don’t think it’s terrible for Germany not being able to attack with that most-western sub. You can place it strategically instead.

[simon33]

I think sending 3 subs there only works if you also attack SZ109, which I can’t really like.

[trulpen]

2 figs definitely makes z111 shakier and makes it more risky for G to conduct both attacks. The upside is that with no sub in z106, 2 subs can join z111 which evens things out a bit. On the other hand then an attack on z106 is really just a coinflip with a sub against a des. The reward for success usually makes it kind of worth it anyway, even though it’s only something like 30-40 %.

Anyway, with an extra fig in Scotland it might very well be that Bismarck has to go to z110 with an option to perhaps sink the northern fleet the next turn.

[Pejon_88]

@simon33 yup that’s what I meant. Depending on the UK bid there is situations when this is most sound. E.g. when they place no sub in 106 but in both 110 and 111

[trulpen]

I think 2 subs vs 1 sub, 1 des is quite ok. If the 2 subs get atleast 1 hit, the defender can’t really afford to save the des. There’s only 50 % chance of getting into a situation with sub against des, and if that fails there’s 2 subs vs 1 des next battle round, which utterly sucks.

[simon33]

@trulpen said in League General Discussion Thread:

The reward for success usually makes it kind of worth it anyway, even though it’s only something like 30-40 %.

1 sub vs 1DD 1TT is 40% attacker kills everything and lives, 20% attacker kills DD only (and loses the sub) 40% defender kills the sub and loses nothing.

So totally worth it from an IPC standpoint, on the average. Even more worth it when the SZ121 sub is otherwise dead meat.

@trulpen said in League General Discussion Thread:

I think 2 subs vs 1 sub, 1 des is quite ok. If the 2 subs get atleast 1 hit, the defender can’t really afford to save the des. There’s only 50 % chance of getting into a situation with sub against des, and if that fails there’s 2 subs vs 1 des next battle round, which utterly sucks.

So you reckon take the first hit on the DD and submerge the sub? Interesting. You are giving up on the chance of saving the TT then. What is that chance? I calculate 60% * 1/3 + 60% * 4/23 * 2/3 = 27%. Hmm.

[Pejon_88]

@simon33 you have first strike with the UK sub which is great. Then my goal would be to save the transport as far as possible so would most likely go max defence. 2 vs 1 at two or less is still very much up to luck. We have all seen those battles go on for 10 rounds without any hits.

[simon33]

@pejon_88 said in League General Discussion Thread:

@simon33 you have first strike with the UK sub which is great. Then my goal would be to save the transport as far as possible so would most likely go max defence. 2 vs 1 at two or less is still very much up to luck. We have all seen those battles go on for 10 rounds without any hits.

Obviously I was talking about the case if that UK sub has missed and the Germans get one hit. Other cases are pretty obvious - you lose the sub if the british sub gets a first strike to try to defend the TT in a coin flip. Or if the Germans get 2 hits the Brits have no decision.

[Pejon_88]

@simon33 I’d still most likely lose the sub for a chance to save the transport

[simon33]

@pejon_88 said in League General Discussion Thread:

@simon33 I’d still most likely lose the sub for a chance to save the transport

trulpen may have a point here though. If you save the sub it then improves your odds to kill both the subs UK1. Probably you will keep both the sub and the DD from 109 and kill both subs whereas if you kill the sub there is still a reasonable chance that you fail to kill both subs on UK1 and only a 27% chance of saving the TT isn’t so great.

I guess the UK sub surprise strike is the reason the battle is only 53% for Germany, 40% for UK.

[Pejon_88]

@simon33 Yes I know, it’s something to consider of course. Yes it’s due to the surprise strike. Some quite difficult odds calculation to do by hand hehe.

[trulpen]

It’s a risky venture. First strike is powerful, but only has that 16,7 % chance of hitting. For me that’s not good enough odds, but rather prefer to safeguard at taking out the surviving subs for sure. It’s usually an NO of 3 IPC for UK.

[trulpen]

Well, I have to admit that I’m leaning towards being a careful general, playing rather conservatively and usually not pursuing daring attacks or defenses unless the times are truly desperate.

[trulpen]

Sorry, my bad. UK of course knows if the sub hit in the first instance, since it’s first strike. That makes things better. If it hits, definitely sink the sub after 1 german hit. If it misses and 1 german hit, then I’d say definitely sink the des.