What if a truce ended the war on the Eastern Front in 1942 or 1943?

[SuperbattleshipYamato]

Let’s say Hitler did not declare war on the US. After that, Hitler planned a better strategy for Case Blue. What strategy would that have been? After a victorious German breakthrough in the extreme south of the Soviet Union, Stalin sues for peace, Vichy France and Spain join the Axis, Rommel stays in Egypt without Montgomery having the resources to breakthrough at El Alamein without the Sherman tanks. What happens next? Thank you for responding in advance!

[ABWorsham4]

@superbattleshipyamato123

A second drive on Moscow would face the bulk of the Soviet forces.

The drive south to be successful needed to bag large pockets of Soviet troops. Soviet forces had the ability to withdrawal faster than the Germans could advance.

[SuperbattleshipYamato]

@abworsham4

Thank you for responding!

For a more successful 1942 campaign, to start, Germany should have encircled Stalingrad (like Leningrad, but there is a problem of overextension), or following the original Case Blue plan of cutting the supply line on on the Volga, and then turn all of Army Group South to invade the Caucausus-accomplishing objectives on at a time rather than simieataneously. Other than that I haven’t go any other ideas. Perhaps further development is necessary.

[Imperious Leader]

@superbattleshipyamato123 I know this about October 16th 1941 Stalin asked Molotov if Germany had conditions that could be reasonable for an armistice. This was predicated on the threat that Stalin’s top generals and advisors said that it looks like Moscow will fall. The plan was either ask for armistice conditions or move the capital 500 miles east to ? ( forgot the name). However, Zhukov was asked about 8-9 days latter whether Moscow can be held and he said yes. Stalin had planned on leaving Moscow on his special train, but the confidence given to him by Zhukov made the decision easy. Their was one more time after the failure of the Soviet offensive ( i think it was called Mars or something) in early spring 1942 when this assessment was given another consideration with the same result.

[SuperbattleshipYamato]

@imperious-leader

It’s actually possible for an armistice to happen in 1942-all the way to mid-1944, as some weird Soviet peace overtures were offered in neutral countries. These weren’t anything serious, but if the condition I outlined had happened, they might have been pursued much more vigourously. Hitler would probably have accepted, at the advise of his generals and Luftwaffe officers (to replace Barbarossa’s and Case Blue’s losses), economists, and “race scientists” (to consolidate the newly conquered lands and peoples in the east). Hitler was far more rational during the war before the failure at Stalingrad. Of course, it would only have been a truce as it would have left Germany far too deep in the Soviet Union. Perhaps it would have also included access to Soviet oil. With the Soviet Union still quite strong and rebuilding with the factories in the Urals, Hitler would have had to do his extermination plan slowly, to prevent a massive revolt in conjunction with a resumption of Soviet attacks. But what happens then? That is the question.

[Imperious Leader]

@superbattleshipyamato123 For Germany the war was one of extermination, Possible German terms would have been harsh and latter most likely broken after a period of time that was advantageous to the Reich. After 1941, Germany needed at least a few years of rebuilding as they never had a wartime economy going and was fighting “on the cheap” smaller nations and this could be only satisfied if the war was not of attrition. If an armistice occurred, Germany would go after English assets until they secured the areas under the Caucasus only breaking the treaty when it was to her advantage.

[Cernel]

@imperious-leader said in What if a truce ended the war on the Eastern Front in 1942 or 1943?:

The plan was either ask for armistice conditions or move the capital 500 miles east to ? ( forgot the name).

Kuybyshev (which is next to Moscow, incapable to be a capital and still named as Samara in the Axis&Allies alternate universe).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samara

During World War II, Kuybyshev was chosen to be the alternative capital of the Soviet Union should Moscow fall to the invading Germans, until the summer of 1943, when everything was moved back to Moscow. In October 1941, the Communist Party and governmental organisations, diplomatic missions of foreign countries, leading cultural establishments and their staff were evacuated to the city.[21] A dugout for Joseph Stalin known as “Stalin’s Bunker” was constructed but never used. To mark its role as wartime national capital a special Revolution Day parade was held at the city’s Kuybyshev Square on November 7, 1941

[barnee]

@superbattleshipyamato123 said in What if a truce ended the war on the Eastern Front in 1942 or 1943?:

Hitler would have had to do his extermination plan slowly,

I think the plan was to starve them to death. No camps needed.

Doesn’t mean it woulda worked

[SuperbattleshipYamato]

@barnee

Perhaps, there was a plan for that-but there probably wouldn’t be any massive massacre (in proportion to what was historically done) by the Heer or Einsatzgruppen, as the military commanders would probably say that it won’t be good for discipline to treat at least 5 countries (the Baltic States, Belarus, and Ukraine) and a nice chunk of Russia as a gigantic free fire zone. And seeing the resistance to Germany in the actual war, it wouldn’t have been so hard for a massive rebellion to start, followed by a massive Soviet invasion.

Hitler actually had a plan to deport and enslave the peoples of the Soviet Union, part of Generalplan Ost:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generalplan_Ost

This would have had to be take this part more slowly. This might not have even been done at all until Germany conquered enough of the Soviet Union.

I guess we talked enough about the east-how would the war with the west go? As I said in my scenario, Hitler did not declare war on the US, and the Second Battle Of El Alamein did not happen (the British only won because of Shermans and Grants, which would not have come in this scenario). Rommel would have stayed in Egypt. The Allied victory in the Battle Of The Atlantic would have taken more time. Vichy France and Spain would have joined the Axis, causing chaos for the British in the Mediterranean. Japan would probably have surrendered in 1944. So what happens then? Would the US have entered the war after the truce? Would Britain have sued for peace after the fall of Gibraltar and possibly Malta. And would the Soviet Union have dared to go to war with Germany again if Britain sued for peace? So many possibilities! I hope to hear your perspective on this!

[barnee]

@superbattleshipyamato123 heh heh lot’s going on here : ) I imagine Roosevelt woulda “manufactured” an incident if necessary to make a DOW. Wouldn’t have been as effective as what happened for uniting the country as Pearl Harbor probably, but USA woulda been in it imo.

That’s all i got time for now : )

[SuperbattleshipYamato]

@barnee

An incident would not have been needed-Pearl Harbour still would have happened, just without Hitler declaring war on the US. The Battle Of The Atlantic would still have been won by the Allies, it just would have taken longer without the US fully committing to it. US participation would still have increased though, and if Germany did not declare war (which they should not, to make this scenario more likely), the US would have declared war on Germany in 1943. It might have been a different situation with a truce though.