As soon as you put ships in the Baltic, a smart allied player will just stack London immediately and prepare to back it with the US.
I don’t see how anyone gets ‘Sea Lioned’, except on the cheap shot Tech roll. Unless your opponent seriously drops the ball, or doesn’t know what they’re doing to begin with, its extremely difficult to take out the UK in the second round. Damn near impossible in the third. Its not the kind of thing you can really plan a strategy around, though if you’re discrete about your naval build up, you might be able to catch someone off guard once in a blue moon. The problem is, if you bid a transport in sz 5 and make a heavy transport build on G1, then the Allied player has to be a complete moron not to realize what he’s up against. If you play it smooth, you might be able to keep a carrier alive into the 3rd round, but then you’re playing a whole psych game with your opponent. Building ships as G is more of a rookie play, so you almost have to convince the other guy that you don’t really know what you’re doing, in order to slip the naval build by them. There’s a reason why the more experienced players focus on the Luftwaffe or Tanks though. Ships tie you down and have to be defended, and more often than not, you’re fighters just end up at the bottom of the sea along with any carriers you might have bought. Also, when Russia is indomitable on the Eastern Front, its much harder for the Japs to press the attack, which almost neutralizes the added pressure you’re placing on the UK.
I don’t know, I’m not going to say I’ve never seen it happen, but usually if someone manages to snatch London, its because of some oversight in the allied defenses that is exploited, more than any grand strategic planning by the German player.
Another possibility (and I don’t really recommend this, but I have seen it done) is to save your cash with Germany so that you can spend 80+ ipcs at once. A save-move will always draw suspicion from the Allied player, but it sometimes gives you a few more options than you’d have with a more prolonged build up. And if it doesn’t work out, you can always just drop a massive tank stack at the last minute, instead of committing to a navy. Again though, saving is not something I would usually recommend for the Axis, because the clock is always ticking.
:)