Techs

[General Turgidson]

DPDLC: Thanks for the response.  You seem better at odds than I am   :-P  And yes I know that the same number of dice offer the same chance to roll a tech whether they happen at once or over turns.

I like your strategy, but I don’t think it was on point as a response to my post.  I was arguing against the feasibility of strategies for trying to roll heavy tech while your strategy is far more cost-effective and thus better, but it does not illustrate an example of breaking the game with heavy bombers.  Perhaps you weren’t really disagreeing with me.  I couldn’t tell by the tone of your post.   :-)

I agree that techs are neat and spending at least 5 or so is highly worthwhile for most nations.  And of course sometimes someone will get heavy bombers quite early, giving their opponents a very rough time of it.

But the only way to guarantee heavy bomb tech early is to waste insane levels of IPCS

_Example: America spends 10 IPCs per turn on tech giving them 12 rolls by each third turn.  For the sake of argument we’ll say that on they’re a tad lucky and on each 3rd turn they get a tech.  On which turn do they you get the heavy bombers?  16% on turn 3.  33% by turn 6. 49% by turn 9.  74% by turn 12.  Your chance does not exceed 50% until turn 12 but with a spot of luck you might have them turn 9.  There’s a good chance one side has won (or cannot be stopped from winning) by turn 9.  So unless you get lucky or the game goes into super over-time you’re paying a fortune for techs that are not worth the investment or won’t come into play soon enough to see the desired effect.
 _

[03321]

@General:

_Example: America spends 10 IPCs per turn on tech giving them 12 rolls by each third turn.  For the sake of argument we’ll say that on they’re a tad lucky and on each 3rd turn they get a tech.  On which turn do they you get the heavy bombers?  16% on turn 3.  33% by turn 6. 49% by turn 9.  74% by turn 12.  Your chance does not exceed 50% until turn 12 but with a spot of luck you might have them turn 9.  There’s a good chance one side has won (or cannot be stopped from winning) by turn 9.  So unless you get lucky or the game goes into super over-time you’re paying a fortune for techs that are not worth the investment or won’t come into play soon enough to see the desired effect.
 _

12 rolls to get a tech is a tad lucky?  Spending 10 IPCs on techs per turn will average you a tech much closer to once every 2 turns than once every 3 (it might average exactly once/2turns, have to think about it).  And with techs working the way they do in AA50 you don’t have to worry about multiple tech hits in a single turn being wasted the way they were in Revised.  So, every now and then you will get 2 or more techs when you roll multiple die.  I believe that’s how it works anyway, it would make much more sense than the alternative.  But, just to go flat averages with that, it would be turn 2 = tech1, turn 4 = tech2, turn 6 = tech3, turn 8 = tech4, turn 10 = tech5, turn 12 = tech6.

The probability that you get heavy bombers BY one of these tech rolls would be:
tech1 = (1/6) = 16.67%
tech2 = (1/6)+(5/61/5) = 33.33%
tech3 = (1/6)+(5/61/5)+(5/64/51/4) = 50%
and so on…tech4 = 66.67%, tech5 = 83.33%, tech6 = 100%.

Now, obviously you can’t just say there’s a 1/6 chance of having the tech by turn 2 because of the 1/6 chance to get it on your first tech.  Nor can you say you will have half of the techs by turn 6.  But on AVERAGE you will have half of the techs (3) after turn 6’s roll, not 1/3 of the techs (2).  That’s how I see the math at least.  And I’m not trying to argue that US SHOULD go tech-crazy in the hopes for heavy bombers.  Simply that they should hit techs more often than in your example, and that their chance of hitting heavy bombers specifically is slightly different than your numbers.

And by the way there is a slight flaw in how you guys were looking for the probability to hit a specific tech by a specific roll.  That is, you weren’t taking into consideration the chances that you would get multiple tech hits by a certain roll.  You were only figuring the probability to get at least one tech hit by a certain roll.  If you were to draw your formulas out to infinite rolls you’d end up with a 100% chance to get ONE tech, and still only a 1/6 chance to get a specific tech.

To figure out the precise chance of getting heavy bombers with a specific number of rolls, I think you would have to find the odds of hitting EXACTLY one tech in those given rolls (multiplied by 1/6 to get the specific tech), then the odds of hitting EXACTLY two techs (multiplied by 1/3), then three techs (*.5), four techs (*2/3), five techs (*5/6), and six techs.  Add all those odds together and that would be the chance you get heavy bombers after a specific number of rolls.

EDIT: As an example of what I was saying at the end of my post, there is a 1/6 (16.67%) chance to get heavy bombers (or any specific tech) by your 6th roll, contrary to Turgidson’s 12% by roll #7.  This is because, while there is only a 66.51% chance to get at least one tech (which would result in an 11.1% chance to hit a spec. tech) a lot of that percentage is comprised of multiple hits.  More boring math…to get the specific tech:

Probability of getting the exact # of hits * Probability of hitting the specific tech after getting that # of hits

1 hit = 40.2% * (1/6) … + 2 hits = 20.1% * (1/3) … + 3 hits = 5.36% * (1/2) … + 4 hits = .8% * (2/3) …rest is almost negligible

6.7% + 6.7% + 2.68% + .54% + .054% = 16.7%

[03321]

Okay.  I did not know that, so yeah a lot of my previous post was wrong.  That means that it will be more like 2.5 turns/tech if you spend a set 10 IPC/turn, I think.

In Classic you could get more than 1 tech/turn right?  I was assuming it would work the same way.

[dpdlc]

Does tech take effect as soon as you mark it? This gives a 1 turn advantage since purchased units can only be used next turn, while tech can be used instantly…

@Craig:

Phase 1: Research & Development
Note: This is an optional rule- players should decide whether or not this phase will be included in their game.

Research & Development Sequence
1. Buy researcher tokens
2. Roll research dice
3. Roll breakthrough die
4. Mark development

[03321]

@Craig:

Step 4: Mark Development
If your research was successful, place one of your national control markers inside the appropriate advancement box on the research & development chart.  Your development becomes effective immediately.

Looks like yes.

[italiansarecoming]

roll “1” darnit didn’t get technology p:

[General Turgidson]

Even assuming your adjusted math of a tech every 2.5 turns is correct and my estimated 3 turns is wrong (once again assuming a fixed 10 ipcs on tech rolls per turn), you still only have better than a 50% chance of getting heavy bomber tech on your 3rd successful tech or (7-8th turn).

Assuming you get heavy bomber tech on turn 7, there are still four possible problems here…

1. Over the long run of the game you are spending massive IPCs to obtain a single tech that could elude you.  Tech rolls are never a sure thing.  Even if you get the tech on turn 7, the game might be over already.

2. UK/USA could be inflicting max damage on every complex in range already.

3. By turn 6 you could have instead just bough 5 more bombers doing a total of 10 (4 + 3 + 2 +1) bombing runs before you ever see heavy bombers.

[03321]

Yep.  Like I said, I wasn’t trying to argue in favor of a heavy bomber '“strat”, just trying to get a bit more accurate numbers since the difference between 2 turns/tech and 3 turns/tech is pretty significant.  But because I was working off faulty assumptions, the difference is far less significant than I thought.  With the system the way it is, rolling less dice offers you more techs per IPC investment AND per roll, which works against tech-heavy builds.

[italiansarecoming]

Meh! im not a bombing person

[Guest]

Bombing is ok, but if you must be persistant. But that assumes you are willing to keep spending money on it, which depending may not be an option.

[italiansarecoming]

THe trick to bombing is to be in the better spot example if germany has most of russia they can finish it or take a few bombers and explode the brits so taht way both allies are crusshed with “fear”        Me i skip bombing and worry about landing and such do not kid me wrong bombers i start with i win with them or lose with them becausei send them with fights (1st turn get income thats what i do)  1 bomber and my fighter 's and many inf. v lets say 3 tanks then i have a totaly force of 7+ aircraft and inf are the key to victory for russia (artillery as well)

[Lucifer]

I just come to think that, if heavybombers and rockets were removed from AA50, then there’s a small possibillity that it could be fun playing AA50 with techs…

After trying AA50, it seems like the reduced cost of bmrs probably isnt a gamebreaker after all, but combine 12 ipc bmrs + rockets + HB  :roll:

[Funcioneta]

Techs are random. Do you really fear a rockets + hb combo? 1 of 36 chances of getting both with only 10 ipcs in 2 turns. Not a great strat  :-P Allied massive bombing strat is preventing by Godzilla Japan attacking Alaska, and Axis massive bomb strat is prevented by starting superior income of Allies. I fear more buggy sparring China, nerfed logistics for USA at Pacific and powered up pokemon Japan

[Lucifer]

Even if the chance of getting either rockets or HB is only 1/12(?) after hitting @6(?), you never know when this is going to occure, so for my part it means that tech is a gamebreaker because of 2 out of 12 techs is going to ruin the game I’m playing, assuming tech is on. But it’s really sad because the only 2 techs that have nothing to do with genuine strats is rockets and HB, all other techs could be fun and are not gamebreakers. It’s not only about one specific tech is going to shift the balance of the game, point is that
10 techs is about strats, 2 techs is just rolling some dice. To use most of the 12 techs you must also know how to use them, you’re not getting automatic advantage by just being lucky. There are actually several techs that seems ok (as of now). After taking a look at the fact sheet, I think all other techs are ok, just not rockets and HB.

[italiansarecoming]

The chance increases every turn!

Anyways more people will buy bombers.

The only time  that i use bombers for is when iuse there 4attack.
example: im russia and i send my 11 bomber with 4 inf. lose 2 inf. 2 inf. stay send bomber back.
I use my bomber as a tricky savior of my army not bombing i have found it works better then buying them for bombing unless you do not got anything better to do!

[Silent Observer]

New to this forum, but been reading here for a little while now.

Of course we are not sure of how strong heavy bombers will actually be in the game yet but with hb your average “gain” from a single sb raid will be about (7*5)/6-(12/6) IPCs or something like 3,8 IPCs in net gain on average. Of course the figure gets a little more balanced if the opposition has improved production or radar, and if he has both it won’t be wise to bomb him at all.

There might be a big problem if one country gets hb during the first rounds of play, and it is this coincidental situation that bothers me, as others have previously mentioned, the game should be about strategy, not plain luck.

[Bardoly]

Welcome!

I agree the game should be more about strategy, but you don’t have to play with tech if you don’t want to.  The group that I play with likes to play with tech, and I believe that it can make the game mnore fun.

[Funcioneta]

@Subotai:

Even if the chance of getting either rockets or HB is only 1/12(?) after hitting @6(?), you never know when this is going to occure, so for my part it means that tech is a gamebreaker because of 2 out of 12 techs is going to ruin the game I’m playing, assuming tech is on. But it’s really sad because the only 2 techs that have nothing to do with genuine strats is rockets and HB, all other techs could be fun and are not gamebreakers. It’s not only about one specific tech is going to shift the balance of the game, point is that
10 techs is about strats, 2 techs is just rolling some dice. To use most of the 12 techs you must also know how to use them, you’re not getting automatic advantage by just being lucky. There are actually several techs that seems ok (as of now). After taking a look at the fact sheet, I think all other techs are ok, just not rockets and HB.

I think the best would be reducing max damage to IC to its IPC value, not allowing “negative production”. Thus, Germany could get 10 points of damage, not 20 as now, and minor ICs would not be so utterly damaged. This would solve rockets. For HB, make the bomber a 5/2 unit instead of two dices stuff, and give a +1 to strat bombing.

[Lucifer]

A solution to HB problem is a house rule like Funcioneta suggested, but it doesnt solve the problem with the AA50 game design, it looks very good overall, but here are som minor issues, like the everlasting HB problem….
In F2F game one can always agree to use tech, but not HB.

HB is not only about SBR, this tech is gamebreaker even with a house rule with no SBR attacks.
For naval combat, ftrs and subs are most effective (in AAR rules) when calcing cost/attack punch. In AA50 this changes because bmrs are cheaper and also subs are cheaper in AA50. So in AA50 the units which are most effective in naval combat are bmrs and subs. HB is twice as effective in naval combat compared to other units.
If one player in a AA50 game gets HB rnd 1 or rnd 2, then this will shift the game balance and the player who got lucky to get HB is going to win, if both players are somewhat equally experienced.
And this will aply also regardless of SBR attacks. HB is so powerfull both in naval and land combat that the only hope for the other player is also to get HB.

If US gets HB and going after Jap, Jap will be in deeeeeep trouble. And vice versa…
With HB it will be an arms race in tech and not a competion of who got most skills making strategic decisions.

[Funcioneta]

But you have boosting techs for subs and fighters, both cheaper than bombers. Maybe making HBs a 5 attack, 2 defense unit who gets a +1 for strat bombings would be enough.

Anyway, with OOB rules, as Subotai said, I’m more afraid of HB affecting naval combat. I’m not sure about this, maybe reduced cost of ships (even more with shipyards) can counter HBs.

Another item is that HB could be too powerful in Atlantic and Mediterranean with so small distances, but Pacific is another story, it has larger distances. And you need some fleet for defending your trannies and take that yummy islands. Figs can defend fleets, HBs not.

Of course, a first round HB tech could be very powerful, but chances of it with 1 dice are 1/36, less than 3%, and there are few bombers on board. Maybe is too heavy forbid techs only for so slim percent. Even so, I prefer a mandatory tech with less powerful HBs than no tech in all. Techs give a special taste to the games