Italy 1

[nhgrif]

After the UK’s turn, here’s what the Mediterranean looks like:

SZ93 of course still has the French boats.
SZ97 Taranto was overwhelmingly successful for the Allies.  Italy scrambled both fighters, Germany scrambled a fighter.  United Kingdom brought two fighter and a strategic bomber from London as well as the fighter from Malta and everything from SZ98.  All of the Axis units were killed.  UK lost only a submarine and one plane.  UK is left with a cruiser, carrier, and two fighters in that sea zone.
SZ99 has 1 transport.  He dropped an infantry off in Greece.
Greece has 5 UK infantry.
SZ95 & 96 of course still have the starting Italian boats.
Germany attacked and retreated out of Yugoslavia leaving 1 neutral infantry defending Yugoslavia.  Southern France was not attacked by Germany, leaving the starting French units there.
There is a UK fighter in Gibraltar, along with one infantry and one mech infantry (transported down from London).
There is a UK infantry and tank in Morocco (transported from Canada).
There is one destroyer and two transports in SZ91 (one destroyer hit by the Germany submarine they had to kill in order to drop off troops down here).
Egypt is left with just the two ANZAC infantry.  Alexandria has the ground units from Alexandria+Egypt, minus the 1 infantry that went to Greece.
Tobruk has the starting Italian troops, of course, plus a German tactical bomber.

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I think that’s a complete description of what is left in the Mediterranean (for a particular game I played recently).  Taranto roll went exceptionally well for UK, but lucky rolling aside:

• Should Italy/Germany scramble fighters to defend Taranto?  Or should they hope to do some damage with boats alone, then counter-attack?

Now, the answer to the above question changes what options Italy has on its turn slightly, and that can be addressed in coming discussion, but… where should Italy go from here?  Playing this, I felt I had a lot of options and a lot of potential targets, but none were super great, and if I took what I felt was an appropriate force into any of the battles, I felt I wouldn’t have been doing enough, or leaving something exposed.

The plan here was for Italy to can-open USSR for Germany.  HOWEVER, if we consider the UK’s movement and their purchase, should the Axis’s overall plan at this point have shifted over to a straight up Sealion?  UK lost the French fighter due to scrambling to defend against Germany taking out the Royal Navy. Its only planes in London are the Scotland plane and one it purchased.  It also purchased a tank and 4 infantry in London (and moved all the Scotland units down).  Leaving UK with 7 infantry, 1 tank, 2 fighters, and 5 AA.  Is UK exposed enough at this point for Germany to take London on G2 with 3 tanks, 3 infantry, two naval bombardments, and a pile of planes?

If switching into a real Sealion is the Axis’s best plan here, what does Italy need to do on its first turn here?

[Witt]

Italy should sink the French ships and the lone TT off Greece. Leave S France to Germany , but take Yugoslavia.
Germany can destroy the U.K. fleet in 97.
I am not a fan of Sealion early on. I think Russia is where the game is won and where Germany can make up the income, whilst keeping Russia poor. Itaky can still can open for Germany.

I am not sure that Germany has enough odds on London. The IK has 15 units and you have 6 plus Air . You have not said how many , but it can only be 9.
You said two Bombardments. Does that mean your Battleship survived attacking the RN amd was not counterattacked on his turn?

[Witt]

I ran it through the AAA calculator.
If you have 3 Ft, 4 Tacs amd 2 Bombers, you would have an 80% of success, but lose 10 points of income in units.
If you have that much Air, it is a good chance to cripple the Allies early on. Would still be a struggle, but you could have fun with Japan , as the US might spend more income that it had wanted in Europe.

[Witt]

… but if you fail to take London, be prepared to concede.

[weddingsinger]

I’m curious if you have the ability to sink the UK transports off Gibraltor.  As Germany I’d really want to do that.  Including if I had to sacrifice Italy’s transport to take Algeria or Morocco as a safe landing spot for the Germans (though I don’t think it would be based on what you’re saying).  If I had a sub to pair with 1 bomber I might do it, knowing I’ll lose both IF I wanted to do Sea Lion.

Are there any fighters still in London?  Did he buy 6 inf or 7 inf for London on UK1?  If he didn’t, and only has the French fighter still in London (so 2 available to defend, because only the fighter from Gibraltor can make it back), I’d do Sea lion.

Meanwhile, Italy’s only job is to kill the French fleet and get into position to kill Greece.  They don’t have the fire power to kill the UK fleet.  Germany will have to consider that as an option, or… just leave it and go do Sea Lion.  That UK fleet would need 3 turns to get back to the UK (Sea Lion +2), and its planes are 2 turns away (Sea Lion+1)

Rule of thumb: if UK brings both fighters down from London, never scramble.  I’d only scramble for sure if they didn’t bring either fighter and I had 3 fighters available to scramble.

[nhgrif]

@weddingsinger:

Are there any fighters still in London?  Did he buy 6 inf or 7 inf for London on UK1?  If he didn’t, and only has the French fighter still in London (so 2 available to defend, because only the fighter from Gibraltor can make it back), I’d do Sea lion.

There are fighters in London.

Of the three that started in London, the French fighter was killed in the English channel scramble, and the two UK fighters went to Taranto.
He rebased the Scottish fighter to London, and purchased a fighter on turn one. 
He also purchased 1 tank, and 5 infantry.  He also transported 2 infantry away from London, did not bring the Canadian units to London, and moved all the Scottish units south to London.

London has 7 infantry, 1 tank, 2 fighters, 5 AAA.

@weddingsinger:

Rule of thumb: if UK brings both fighters down from London, never scramble.  I’d only scramble for sure if they didn’t bring either fighter and I had 3 fighters available to scramble.

I will keep this in mind.

@weddingsinger:

I’m curious if you have the ability to sink the UK transports off Gibraltor.  As Germany I’d really want to do that.  Including if I had to sacrifice Italy’s transport to take Algeria or Morocco as a safe landing spot for the Germans (though I don’t think it would be based on what you’re saying).  If I had a sub to pair with 1 bomber I might do it, knowing I’ll lose both IF I wanted to do Sea Lion.

This is what I actually did and it didn’t work out so great.  Italy took 1 cruiser and 2 transports to Gibraltar.  Dice were not with me.  Killed the two ground units, but lost all four of my units to the UK fighter.

I didn’t quite do Sealion.  I dropped off some units and prepared a second round of pick-up drop-off for Sealion the next turn.  A few German ships went down to 91 and wiped out all of the UK boats.  At this point, I probably could/should have taken the three transports down with and dropped them off in Africa.

[simon33]

Without reading all of this, UK should always take SZ96. Letting an Italian transport live can be a fatal mistake. I normally use the SZ91 Cruiser and Gibraltar fighter.

[weddingsinger]

@nhgrif:

London has 7 infantry, 1 tank, 2 fighters, 5 AAA.
–—
I didn’t quite do Sealion.  I dropped off some units and prepared a second round of pick-up drop-off for Sealion the next turn.  A few German ships went down to 91 and wiped out all of the UK boats.  At this point, I probably could/should have taken the three transports down with and dropped them off in Africa.

I’d bomb London and invade as quick as I could.  With only 7 inf there Germany should be able to steam roll him.

It’ll still take a while for Italy to recover.  In my previous games where they got wiped out like this, I just turned Italy into a bomber factory for a while and got ready for Germany to drop a carrier and transport in the Med (via S. Europe) to help keep Italy’s boats afloat, if UK still has planes/ships in Africa.

[Caesar-Seriona]

Actually UK raiding Italian navy might promote Sea Lion because UK just weakened their airforce against Germany and if UK was too stupid to beef up London, Germany might favor it.