First, I just want to add something for you to consider in the future. Doesn’t pertain to your current game, but something to think about if you ever end up playing with the Netherlands Fights Back Expansion.
If using that expansion, the Dutch are their own playable power, and their IPP’s don’t go to the CW. While true, they would get the money in exile still if you attack the Netherlands before Japan attacks the DEI, it’s not as strong as combining that income with the CW, which is obviously your concern here.
So again, it’s more of a reminder of potential strategy change if playing with that expansion in the future! :-)
To address your actual question, you of course raise a good point. That’s a fair sum of cash going to the CW early on if the Japanese cannot strike for a couple of turns in the DEI.
I would say avoiding the Netherlands early on could definitely be a good route to go.
One thing I would say though, and this could be unrealistic, but you never know I guess, is to watch out for the UK deciding to attack the Netherlands themselves. Yes, the 10 IPP penalty for attacking a minor is steep. But if your the UK and you’re worried about the Dutch not being attacked for, say 3 turns after France falls, maybe you decide to take that risk and attack the Netherlands, and whatever DEI islands you can reach. You might end up recouping that money you lost in declaring war right away.
This would also give the UK a beachhead on mainland Europe. With the negatives of amphibious assaults, the Axis of course wouldn’t want this. A lot would have to be in favor of the Allies for that to actually hold past one turn, but circumstances being applied, it could potentially not be good.
Again, not saying this is best practice by any stretch. Just saying it would be something to look out for. You’d have to see how the game is playing out of course. The Allies could notice that Japan is realistically multiple turns away from considering an attack on the DEI, and could maybe find this worth while.
Probably too far fetched, I don’t necessarily think I would do this as the Allies. It’s more of a lesson in paying attention to what your opponent is doing, or could do I guess!