@Bean:
Japanese fighters to Ukraine is annoying, but they are not likely to be used in trading any territories right after that due to having to fly over the Caucasus AA gun. Plus, Ukraine immediately borders any build in Caucasus, and Russia should have plenty of units. And it’s very unlikely to be able to go to Ukraine until round 3, because round 1 sees the fighters in Kwang to counterattack Yakut, China, and India for maximum flexibility. And only 4 fighters, since 2 are being used in Hawaii.
I typically won’t land my ftrs in Kwa on J1, it is Fic barring some KJF strat. 7 inf to Chi on J1. I really don’t care about Yak/Ind. You’ll see that resistance disapear quite fast with 6 inf standing in China and 4 ftrs/bom in range on Sin. The Allies can have those if I get Sin with a decent sized stack on Rd 2 and Germany in Ukr.
And with a mix of inf/arm buys by Ger, Russia can’t push Ger out of Ukr (which is the key thing), now I just have to wait for Japan. And that really isn’t an issue with Germany on the boarder of Cauc.
So, if Ukr is left open to a big move by Ger in Rd 2, I’ll do it, knowing I have 2 ftrs for back up.
@Bean:
Also if you go to Ukraine hard early, and you would have to go very hard, that means ignoring Karelia/Belorussia. If you send even 1 inf to each of those that could very well mean the difference between keeping Ukraine since Russia builds immediately on Caucasus and can have arm builds in Russia reach it.
You can afford to ignore Kar/Belo if it means Ukr on G2/3. As long as you have the numbers to hold Ukr (or make the Russian counter so costly that even if they do it you can clean up the remnants and essentially take them out of the game as an offensive threat). You’ll get Kar/Belo the next turn but now have the option of landing G ftrs in Ukr, I’ll trade those 4 ipc (or 1 rt) for a strong position in Ukr.