Ukraine bid

[ajgundam5]

Switch Germany only starts with 6 Figs … so does Japan

[Romulus]

@AJ:

Switch Germany only starts with 6 Figs … so does Japan

I think Switch calculated also the bombers. German has 7 aircraft: 6 fighter and 1 Bomber.

[Romulus]

Jennifer and Frood, according to me both of you are saying almost the same thing in a slightly different ways.
In regards to the stats of the AA gun, there is a properties that may be used: the theorem of total probability.

If we consider A the event that first dice hit and B the event that second dice hit, we all agree that each probability a priori is P(A) = P(B) = 1/6 = 0.166666 approximately 17%.
The probability of the two events, that are independent, is:
P(A AND B) = P(A)*P(B) = 1/36 = 0.027777 approximately 3%.

Given the fact that the two events are independent but not disjoint (or they are not mutually esclusive, that is the same) the probability of hitting at least one of the two aircraft is:

P(A OR B) = P(A)*P(B) - P(A AND B) = (1/6) * (1/6) - 1/36 = 11/36 = 0.305555 approximately 31%. (as Frood said)

There is another way to compute the  same probability, considering the complementary event A’ and B’, that are the events in which aircraft is not hit.

The a priori probability in this case is 5/6. So:

P(A OR B) = 1 - P(A’ AND B’) = 1 - (5/6) * (5/6) = 1 - 25/36 = 11/36 = 0.305555

What Jennifer calculated is the conditional probability of P(A) given that P(B) is not verified. Being the events independent we have that P(A AND B) = P(A)*P(B) and so, for the Bayes Law:
P(A|B) = P(A AND B)/P(B) = P(A)*P(B)/P(B) = P(A) = 0.166666

So you are looking different aspects of the problem but you have calculated the correct probabilities!

[ajgundam5]

@Romulus:

@AJ:

Switch Germany only starts with 6 Figs … so does Japan

I think Switch calculated also the bombers. German has 7 aircraft: 6 fighter and 1 Bomber.

Oh yeah … my mistake

[newpaintbrush]

@Frood:

Ah the miracle of math…

Dude!  Bewbies are teh miracle!

Anyways -

Usually if Germany puts 1 or more infantry equivalents in Ukraine, I’ll just hit West Russia and Belorussia.

If Germany put an infantry and AA gun in Ukraine, though, I might commit three Russian tanks to attack Ukraine, build 2 inf 2 artillery at Caucasus, and 2 tanks at Moscow.  So if Germany tried to retake Ukraine, I could re-retake Ukraine.  All it would take would be one turn of Russia holding at Ukraine, and free Russian AA gun.

[Jennifer]

Thanks Romulus.

BTW, the more i think about it, my plan of Inf in W. Russia and Arm in Ukraine may not be the correct layout.  Thinking instead the Infantry AND the Armor should be in Ukraine.

What other options do you all have for a bid of Infantry, Armor usable by Germany in Europe. (Not Africa in other words, cause that’s a given and standard location for an Axis bid as far as I’ve seen.)

[newpaintbrush]

@Jennifer:

Thanks Romulus.

BTW, the more i think about it, my plan of Inf in W. Russia and Arm in Ukraine may not be the correct layout.  Thinking instead the Infantry AND the Armor should be in Ukraine.

What other options do you all have for a bid of Infantry, Armor usable by Germany in Europe. (Not Africa in other words, cause that’s a given and standard location for an Axis bid as far as I’ve seen.)

1.  I would put inf/armor in Libya.  Just to be clear on wat I would do.

2.  Ukraine or Belorussia is just about it for inf/armor in Europe.  Eastern Europe is possible.  You could even try to make a case for Norway, for fighter base to mess with sea zone NW of UK and threaten UK invasion, but I think it won’t work very well.  (Nowhere else is really required; you don’t need or want infantry anywhere else).

[Jennifer]

Yea, we’d all go Libya if given our druthers. :P  That’s why I excluded it!

Anyway, anyone run numbers on W. Russia with + 1 Infantry/Armor?  Would it do enough dmg to be significant or would it just be crushed?

[cyan]

with 1inf,1 tank to wrussia you would lose 7 inf traditional. if you only want to lose 3 inf you need to do only wrussia. so is 4 inf worth not doing ukraine or belrussia.

[Jennifer]

4 Infantry is 50% of Russia’s starting income.  Can Russia afford to lose 4 more infantry in W. Russia and NOT get the German fighter in Ukraine and NOT get the 3 IPC for Ukraine?

[cyan]

@Jennifer:

4 Infantry is 50% of Russia’s starting income.  Can Russia afford to lose 4 more infantry in W. Russia and NOT get the German fighter in Ukraine and NOT get the 3 IPC for Ukraine?

if you only do wrussia you only lose 3 infantry. i don’t think its worth doing ukraine or belrussia too. and i don’t lilke only attack 1 terrtory round 1.

[Guest]

To negate the Axis bid, hell yes I would do only West Russia and kick butt there!

[Jennifer]

But, as far as I see it, you have not negated the Axis bid.  You have given them +2 more by allowing them to keep their fighter.  Actually, you gave them +28 IPC in units on your front lines by not killing Ukraine.

Meanwhile, your entire army is in W. Russia with only your builds and 6 Infantry from the East front as backup.  As Germany, I might be tempted to for go Egypt, take Gibraltar, get a Carrier to make SZ 5 a pain, and plow 100% of my forces in W. Russia to destroy the Russian offensive machine right there.

I’d have to look at it with a board before I make that plan official though.

[frood]

I think you have negated it in that the AA gun that was bid ended up serving no purpose at all.

And it’s not very accurate to say that you have given Germany 28 IPCs of extra units on your front, because
a) Killing WR, you wipe out 18 IPCs of units so that’s only a difference of 10 IPCs, not 28
a.1) If you are strafing Ukraine, hoping NOT to take it, you are in fact gunning for the same 18 IPCs but without having a Ftr shooting at you.
b) In killing Ukraine, you will lose a fair bit of IPCs yourself which you have to offset against those 28 IPCs
c) After killing Ukraine you will probably lose any tanks to Germany’s counter-attack.
d) West Russia can be taken and held with more Russian units and defending against fewer German units (esp. if you also strafe / take Belo w/ 2 Ftr 3 Inf)

I think that’s what my R1 looks like right now - Take WR w/ all avail. units except a few thrown into Belo. I can go either way on the Belo attack though. But West Russia is such a key territory, a big stack there has so many options and hence exerts a big influence on Germany. But Ukraine? That 1 German fighter is not worth losing 4 Russian Tanks.

[Guest]

If Germany places a 1 INF, 1 ARM bid to West Russia:

The Russian defenders would look like this (on average):
West Russia:  4 INF, 2 ART, 3 ARM, 1 AA
Caucuses:  8 INF, 1 ARM, 2 FIG, 1 AA, 1 IC

Germany’s available forces to attack either one are:
Ukraine: 3 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM
Belo:  3 INF (For WR attack only)
Eastern:  1 ARM
Balkans:  1 ARM
and of course any air power you wish to pull away from attacks in SZ13, SZ15, and Egypt.

Without using air support, Germany has a 50/50 chance to liberate WR (with 1 ARM left being the median result).
With air support it goes up, but Germany also risks their aircraft to AA fire, and Germany will take heavier losses in their other battles without the extra air power.
It also leaves Germany with a grand total of 4 INF east of Germany (2 Eastern, 2 Balkans) once they complete the attack, and 5 dead tanks game to date.

Russia meanwhile will have 8 INF, 2 ARM, 2 FIGs available to counter West Russia and/or attack Ukraine.

Balance of power shifted to the Allies…

[axis_roll]

@Frood:

I think you have negated it in that the AA gun that was bid ended up serving no purpose at all.

And it’s not very accurate to say that you have given Germany 28 IPCs of extra units on your front, because
a) Killing WR, you wipe out 18 IPCs of units so that’s only a difference of 10 IPCs, not 28
a.1) If you are strafing Ukraine, hoping NOT to take it, you are in fact gunning for the same 18 IPCs but without having a Ftr shooting at you.
b) In killing Ukraine, you will lose a fair bit of IPCs yourself which you have to offset against those 28 IPCs
c) After killing Ukraine you will probably lose any tanks to Germany’s counter-attack.
d) West Russia can be taken and held with more Russian units and defending against fewer German units (esp. if you also strafe / take Belo w/ 2 Ftr 3 Inf)

I think that’s what my R1 looks like right now - Take WR w/ all avail. units except a few thrown into Belo. I can go either way on the Belo attack though. But West Russia is such a key territory, a big stack there has so many options and hence exerts a big influence on Germany. But Ukraine? That 1 German fighter is not worth losing 4 Russian Tanks.

In A&A, you can not look strictly at the difference in IPCs after the results of a battle.

There are many other factors involved like strategic importance of a territory, what defending units are being eliminated, as well as taking into account the counter-attack.  Also, there’s opportunity cost as well.

[Jennifer]

Usually Russia will own both Ukraine and W. Russia on Russia 1.  If a bid forces Russia NOT to own Ukraine, then yes, you have netted 28 IPC from your bid, the total cost of replacing all the units you otherwise would have lost.

And yes, there is more too it then that.  Not only did you not take those units, but they are available on Round 1, an increase in value.  Not only available, but in position to do something, again an increase in value.

[frood]

@axis_roll:

@Frood:

I think you have negated it in that the AA gun that was bid ended up serving no purpose at all.

And it’s not very accurate to say that you have given Germany 28 IPCs of extra units on your front, because
a) Killing WR, you wipe out 18 IPCs of units so that’s only a difference of 10 IPCs, not 28
a.1) If you are strafing Ukraine, hoping NOT to take it, you are in fact gunning for the same 18 IPCs but without having a Ftr shooting at you.
b) In killing Ukraine, you will lose a fair bit of IPCs yourself which you have to offset against those 28 IPCs
c) After killing Ukraine you will probably lose any tanks to Germany’s counter-attack.
d) West Russia can be taken and held with more Russian units and defending against fewer German units (esp. if you also strafe / take Belo w/ 2 Ftr 3 Inf)

I think that’s what my R1 looks like right now - Take WR w/ all avail. units except a few thrown into Belo. I can go either way on the Belo attack though. But West Russia is such a key territory, a big stack there has so many options and hence exerts a big influence on Germany. But Ukraine? That 1 German fighter is not worth losing 4 Russian Tanks.

In A&A, you can not look strictly at the difference in IPCs after the results of a battle.

There are many other factors involved like strategic importance of a territory, what defending units are being eliminated, as well as taking into account the counter-attack.  Also, there’s opportunity cost as well.

Wasn’t I taking exactly those things into account?

Except for the “strategic importance of a territory”. In this regard I think I have a different approach to the game from a lot of other players. My basic philosophy is that units are far more valuable than territory. As Jennifer notes, units that are in position are worth more than units that are not. By that logic, units that are in position (such as Russia’s forces on R1) are more valuable than the 3 IPCs it gains from Ukraine which will only mean one more Infantry placed in Moscow at the END of the NEXT turn.

Off hand the only time I view a territory as having great strategic value is when taking it will prevent a bunch of tanks from being added to a counter attack - eg. Germany has a bunch of tanks in Karelia, and you take Eastern Europe to prevent those tanks from striking the Balkans next turn, where you have your main force.

My thinking on Ukraine is influenced also by what I’ve learned in chess. In chess, if one side has more material (pieces and pawns) than the other, then it is to that sides advantage to start trading off pieces, because eventually trading will leave that side with something and the other with nothing. In AAR, Russia has fewer pieces and less ability to replace them, so I don’t like to do big trades as result from taking Ukraine.

But if I can destroy MORE enemy units than I will lose in the attack and the counter-attack, then I will take the territory. Not because of the territory, but because of the unit gain.

In AAR, units are the most direct expression of a country’s power, and give you the actual ability to destroy your opponent. In the long run yes you need to gain territory but you can’t do that if you throw your units away for short-term gains.

[Amon-Sul]

@Jennifer:

Usually Russia will own both Ukraine and W. Russia on Russia 1.  If a bid forces Russia NOT to own Ukraine, then yes, you have netted 28 IPC from your bid, the total cost of replacing all the units you otherwise would have lost.

And yes, there is more too it then that.  Not only did you not take those units, but they are available on Round 1, an increase in value.  Not only available, but in position to do something, again an increase in value.

i agree, if you go KGF

otherwise, see it diferently

[Romulus]

Frood you are right and your similarity with chess is very interesting!

Also I play chess and I would like to make a consideration.
In chess strategy elements are not reduced to the piece count. There are situation in which you sacrifice one of your pieces for gaining other objective, for example breaking the cover of the opponent King. Furthermore in chess there are two fundamentals factors that must be taken in account: position and tempo (timing). If a player have more pieces, and is doing the right moves but he is one turn behind his opponent he is in big problems. You also said that availability of units change their extimed value.

And also in AAR there are such factors. For my understanding axis_roll referred to such factors, and considered important for the strategy also the value of territory that is not expressed in form of IPC.
For example, Buratyia is important to take for Japan because avoid US plane to land there after attacking on Japan TRN.
In my limited experience I see position and tempo also important factor in AAR.
Returning on topic: I think Ukraina should be attacked even if there is a bid that place there an AA gun.