@beerbelly:
I also wanted to comment on your assertion that a navy may be in a better position after performing an ‘air strike’.
In the scenario you outlined where the Japanese have 3 CV, 6 planes, BB, CA, DD against the US 2 CV, 4 planes, 2 DD, 4 SUB, you explain that defensively the US will be in a better position because they traded submarines for planes.
Yet, in that example, the US has greatly weakened both their defensive position as well as their offensive position after the air strike. If the US elects to forgo the air strike and let the IJN attack it, the IJN will have about a 67% chance of winning when both navies are at full strength. However, if the US chooses to perform a preemptive air strike, the remaining IJN force of 3 CV, 4 planes, BB, CA against the US 2 CV, 4 planes will have about a 96% chance of victory.
By performing such an air strike, you have squandered the fodder you desperately need to defend against the superior naval task force.
But if the US player is trying to gain naval dominance of the Pacific then he has more destroyers and subs arriving at the end of the turn. In this case, it was a turn 3 strike on the IJN based on what I would have at Hawaii at the end of my turn 2 if I were going all out to take over the Pacific (which the US can do). What I would have arriving from turn 3 builds would actually be a 3rd CV and a destroyer. So what the rememnants of the IJN would actually be facing on their turn would be 3 CVs, 6 fighters, and 1 DD. They can’t attack that and must return to Japan to build navy. To catch back up, which means they are not building ground units for India. I also would actually attacked with 2 more bombers from Hawaii and probably hurt the IJN even more than in the example. I was being as conservative as possible in estimations like that. If the US is set up like this and uses a sacrificial transport to take Phillipines on turn 2, Japan can’t take it back that turn. It might look like they can, but the air strike will lose them the pacific 2 or 3 turns down the road if they do. The air strike is very powerful against an “unprotected” fleet.
I agree with the poster who said that DDs are better defensive units than Subs. The US focuses more on subs, while Japan should be more focused on destroyers… but Japan should match a sub to each plane, to theaten their own air strikes as well. “Fleet subs” are simply a part of the carrier strike wing, at least that’s how you should think of them. They are defensive during an airstrike, but almost useless cannon fodder when the full fleets meet in the same space. You might actually think of “Fleet Subs” as your carrier’s torpedo bombers, and the fighters as the dive bombers.
Finally, not just in navy but in ground combat as well, IPCs are not the whole story. Position and situation are equally important to economics. The US trading a sub for a fighter with Japan, for example, is worth a lot more to the US than the 4 IPC difference that trade represents. The US can afford to build lots of subs, Japan cannot afford to build lots of planes. The US has no pressing goal other than defeating the IJN, Japan needs to save Germany through India or their side will probably lose. Japanese units are just more valuable that US units are, due to the situation. Another example of this concept can be found in Germany. Germany’s greatest difficulty in defeating Russia is a lack of Infantry on the front lines (this is why I consider Mech Inf the best tech Germany can get). An infantry in East Poland is simply worth more than an infantry in Germany is. I’d say as a rule-of-thumb guideline you might say that, too Germany, and infantry is worth +1 IPC for each space between it and Germany.
The fleet is a lot more important to Japan than it’s actual IPC value, so anytime the US is killing Japanese naval units they are hurting Japan much more than the IPC value of the units destroyed. This is not the case with the US, who’s only pressing goal is to gain naval dominance in the pacific and get the UK’s NO’s for them. All they want to build is navy, Japan hopes to build as little navy as possible. This makes trading naval and air units a good deal for the US, such a good deal for them that it is usually worth it to the US to lose 4 units if it means Japan will lose 2.