Presidential Election (as a current event- watch the tone or it's gone)

I was not too far off on my SC prediction…

McCain won by 3% over 2nd place Huckabee (I placed the margin at 5%), with Thompson 3rd and Romney 4th (though he was further ahead of Ron Paul than i would have thought).

Looks like the Hillary Express is finally getting into gear…

@JWW:

@JWW:

I’m pulling for Giuliani. Any other Giuliani supporters out there?

Silence……I take that as a no.

:lol:

James, I was initially pulling for Giuliani . . . until he basically did a disappearing act.  He played ALL his chits on winning Florida.  Well, I live in Florida and have seen the ads he is running and, let’s just say I am less than impressed.  His only messages are (1) stand strong against terrorism (ok, sure, but what else?), and (2) stop illegal immigration.  I mean, yeah, these are bread and butter Republican issues, but HELLO, THERE IS A RECESSION GOING ON HERE!!!  ANYTHING TO OFFER ON THAT FRONT???  His campaigning also seems frankly feckless – there does not seem to be any clear strategy to win the nomination, much less beat Hilary.  IMO at least.

No one in any respectable position of fiscal power in this country (you know, people like Greenspan, aka people with the training and expertise, not a talking head on television or some politician looking for power) is saying we are now, nor expect us to be in a recession.

Actually…

Yes, people with the knowledge, training and experience ARE saying we are in a recession.

Job creation is down.
Retail sales down.
Housing down.
Stock Market down.

Did I miss any of the primary characteristics of a recession?  I don;t think so…

If you don;t believe me, try the Wall Street Journal… (from September)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118921622921621367.html?mod=todays_us_opinion

Or something more recent, like the Chief Economist of U.S Bank…
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2008/01/14/daily50.html

That being said, back to the candidates for the election…

A significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting longer than a few months. It is visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade.
news.firstdata.com/glossary.cfm

A significant decline in economic activity. In the US, recession is approximately defined as two successive quarters of falling GDP, as judged by NBER. A recession in one country may be caused by, or itself cause, recession in another country with which it trades.
www-personal.umich.edu/~alandear/glossary/r.html

Broadly defined, a recession is a downturn in a nation’s economic activity. If national productivity, or gross domestic product (GDP), declines for at least two consecutive quarters, it is usually considered a recession. …
www.morganstanleyindividual.com/customerservice/dictionary/Default.asp

Just to name a few.

Notice how NONE of that is in relation to the “credit crunch” or the “houseing market.”

As for the job creation, myth:

*  Real After-Tax Personal Income Increased At A Strong 4.5 Percent Annual Rate In The First Quarter.  Per capita, real after-tax income has risen by 10.4 percent – more than $3,000 – since President Bush took office.
    * Real Wages Rose 1.3 Percent Over The 12 Months Ending In March.  This is faster than the average rate of the late 1990s economy, and it means an extra $765 in the past year for the typical family with two wage earners.
    * The Economy Has Now Experienced Over Five Years Of Uninterrupted Growth, Averaging 3.0 Percent A Year Since 2001.
    * Since The First Quarter Of 2001, Productivity Growth Has Averaged 2.8 Percent.  This is well above average productivity growth in the 1990s, 1980s, and 1970s.
    * Consumer Spending Increased At A Solid 3.8 Percent Annual Rate In The First Quarter.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/05/20070504-1.html

According to http://jobsearchtech.about.com/library/weekly/aa070303.htm in 2003 the US Unemployment rate was a whopping 6.3%.

Today it is 4.8%.  Given the margin of error, that could actually be as low as 0.8% one of the lowest unemployment rates in the 20th or 21st centuries.

As I said, anyone in a position of power (so they have the actual facts in front of them) who is NOT trying to get elected (so they have no motive to distort the information) and has the expertise (experience and/or schooling) is saying there is no recession at this time.

That is NOT to say that if Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama or Mr. McCain get elected that the current trend downward (started in 2006 after the mid-term elections and the change over of power) won’t get worse and drive us INTO a recession.  It’s just saying that, according to the definition of recession, and the current statistics we are not yet IN a recession.

Thus, any campaigning about getting us OUT of a recession is hype being thrown out to dupe the masses into feeling like there is a recession.

Money Magazine just had a huge article about it.  Most people (I don’t remember the exact figure, but it was more then 80%) feel good about their own finances and situation, but most people also worry about their neighbor’s situation.  Why?  Because they are told their neighbors are in dire straights by the media and the demagogues.  Not because their neighbors are selling their homes for a loss or are suddenly driving Ford Pintos after selling their 2006 Jaguars and Bentleys.

Admittedly, this WAS the first year I took a loss in the market.  My eldest’s 529B lost 1.8%.  Considering everything else made 22.7-28.3% I can’t say I experienced a financial recession on a personal level either.

Previous post is off topic for this thread.

Not in regards to politicians attempting to convince the people of a recession that is not here in order to get them to elect them out of fear that they will lose everything they own in a second great depression if they do not, Switch.

Recession or no, the dollar is only getting weaker Jen. I’m no economics expert, but the economy going under starts with the currency losing its value no? Perhaps there is some truth in the politicians claims Jen, you have to be open minded.  :wink:

But a weaker dollar is not, necessarily, a bad thing.  It makes are debt worth less, which means it’s easier to pay off and it allows us to export our products at a cheaper rate meaning more revenue generated from exports to offset our import deficit.

Washington has shown no interest whatsoever in paying off the debts we owe, or in the collecting the ones owed to us.

And correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t importing cheap and exporting high the goal? For this we want a stronger dollar.

@M36:

Washington has shown no interest whatsoever in paying off the debts we owe, or in the collecting the ones owed to us.

And correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t importing cheap and exporting high the goal? For this we want a stronger dollar.

Part 1:

No US Government since Andrew Jackson has been worried about paying off the debts we owe, or in the collecting the ones owed to us.

Part 2:

No, actually the reverse is true.  We want people to buy our products cheaper then their own domestic products so we sell more products.  Likewise, we want our products to be cheaper then foreign competition to keep our own money domestic instead of shipping billions over seas to support the economies of other nations at the expense of our own nation.

doing McCain victory dance  :mrgreen:

well, i hope it would be a McCain-Huckabee ticket, or McCain-Petraus, or just McCain somebody.

and a question is, would either obama or hillary have the moxy to swallow ego and accept a vice presidential candidcy.  i really dont think so.  man are they hammering each other after their so called truce

and many of their proponents are saying they should get the job b/c this nation needs a black/woman president.  what happened to being best qualified for the job?  eh, maybe bush wasnt best qualified either……

and with the economy, it looks a little painful.  like someones repeatedly kicking america’s jimmy.  but i think our economy is just too damn big to really go into a deep recession…oil is already down to $90 a barrel again.  when it gets lower and lower, our economy will go back up…man it sucks to be truly addicted to oil and people who dont like us supply us with it.

and McCain says he will give companies tax cuts but only if there is spending cuts to go with it.  Go McCain, shrink this government, it wastes money on worthless grants all over the place.  and cut some bloated bueracracy jobs.  and thank God everyone at least knows McCain is the only candidate serious about stopping pork barrel spending that is so wasteful.  thats a big reason why other politicians loathe the man.  he’ll cut off their bread and butter.

Solving the oil crisis is easy.  Allow American Companies to Drill Oil in America.  Price of Oil will drop to $40/barrel over a summer.

I think Hillary would do anything, even let her husband sleep with other women, to get into the White House, as VP or Pres, but preferably pres.

As for McCain, if he’s the Republican, there’s no way the Republicans will get the White House this year.  Too many Republicans would rather stay home and let Hillary or Barrack have the White House to prevent McCain from getting it and further slandering the title Conservative.

I’m not one.  I’ll go VOTE for Hillary of Barrack!  I don’t want McCain anywhere NEAR the White House.  He pretends to wear red, but everything he does is blue through and through.

I hope if MLXBW gets the nomination she does not have billy in her cabinet. Her candidacy could not be some ploy to get bill in as VP…could it? I think he can only serve 4 years as VP under the (12 years maximum rule)

so……MLXBW… :?

Please enlighten me as to this new title for Hillary. :?

As a side not to Jen, the most important issue facing the country right now is obviously the battle against terrorism. Who was it that pushed for the strategy General Petraeus has instituted?  I believe John McCain said more personnel where needed all along. Some of the guys at my FOB have been here since before the surge began, and they all say the same thing: We weren’t as busy before because we didn’t have the manpower to execute all the missions and patrolling. So to a civilians eyes, it is John McCain who was right about the battle in Iraq. Thats a sure ticket into the white house.

the problem is he has been wrong (by conservative standards) on far more things. the economy is starting to strugle, tax cuts have proven to be a help to the economy but he has voted against tax cuts, not because they help the rich but because he thinks they don’t help the economy grow. granted more troops on the ground was a good call, but it is also the view of most conservatives for a long time, sence before i ever heard any talk in Washington of a surge. the problem in Iraq with the way it has been fought has been IMHO that it was too political and GWB played both sides and got nothing done. now McCain who is known for playing both sides is running. i’m sorry but the big problem with the current pres is that he did exactly what McCain is known for. the only thing McCain has up on Bush is that he has a stronger stance on how to fight the war, but he also is un willing to even intertain the idea of tough interigation messerues for the enamy. i know he was tourchoured, but i’m not talking tourchour. McCain understands the need for a strong millitary but i don’t think he is the man for the rest of the job and that includes the war on Terror (but good on the theater in Iraq). for that i think he would make a good adivsor or VP at most, but not the leader of our nation.

on a side note: M36, don’t know your deployment length, but hope you and your brothers come home safe. what unit are you? if you don’t mind me asking, and also where you stationed out of? pm if you don’t want it public, i was in Camp Lajune NC just a few years back.

Monica Lewinsky’s Ex Boyfriends wife= MLXBFW

When i type Celery Clinton i have acute chest pains.

Well Fred is out.  So my new endorsement order, from best qualified in my opinion, to worst qualified is:

Fred Thompson <===No Longer Running, guess he got smart and politics is no place for smart men!
Mitt Romney
Mike Huckabee
Ron Paul
John Edwards <===Yea, he’s a democrat, but at least he’s made his own wealth.
Adolf Hitler <===Deceased
Joseph Stalin <===Deceased
Hillary Clinton <===Because when she drives our country into 3rd world status, we can blame both the baby boomers and the democrats
Barrak Obama <===Because when he drives our coutnry into 3rd world status, we can blame the democrats
John McCain <===Because he’s identical to Hillary, except he’s a man and when he drives our country into 3rd world status, we have no one to blame but Rich, White Republicans and that will bar real conservatives from the White House for at least another decade.