L24 PTV Stucifer (X+10) vs max334 (L)

@max334 no scramble, thanks

@max334 No scramble to Holland, scramble 1 fighter to Malaya.

TripleA Turn Summary: Italians round 4

TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History

Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Italians
        Italians buy 1 destroyer, 1 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 5 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Italians

    Combat - Italians

    Non Combat Move - Italians
        2 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy
        2 infantry moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine
        2 armour and 2 mech_infantrys moved from Romania to Ukraine
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Northern Italy to Romania
        3 fighters moved from Alexandria to Southern Italy
        1 armour, 1 artillery, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Alexandria to Tobruk
        1 infantry moved from Libya to Tobruk
        1 artillery moved from Tunisia to Libya

    Place Units - Italians
        1 destroyer and 1 transport placed in 99 Sea Zone
        1 infantry placed in Southern Italy

    Turn Complete - Italians
        Italians collect 12 PUs; end with 17 PUs
        Objective Italians 5 Control Convoy Lanes: Italians met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 20 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

TripleA Move Summary: Germans round 5

TripleA Move Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History

Round: 5

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 1 airfield, 3 fighters, 4 infantry, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
        Trigger Germans 6 Atlantic Wall Broken Switch: Setting switch to false for conditionAttachment_Germans_6_Atlantic_Wall_Possible_Switch attached to Germans

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Western Germany to 113 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from France to 113 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from France to Holland Belgium
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Holland Belgium
        2 bombers, 3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Italy to 113 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Vologda to Novgorod
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Leningrad to Kursk
        1 fighter moved from Leningrad to Novgorod
        1 infantry moved from Leningrad to Northern Belarus
              Germans take Northern Belarus from Russians
        1 infantry moved from Ukraine to Kursk
        5 armour, 4 artilleries, 2 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys moved from Ukraine to Rostov
        1 armour moved from Eastern Poland to Southern Belarus
              Germans take Southern Belarus from Russians
        1 armour moved from Southern Belarus to Northern Belarus

Savegame

Scramble decision in 113

@max334 I like to use the battle calculator’s TUV feature and average units remaining. If a battle is less than 80%s then I usually go with average units and manually calculate TUV because the numbers can get skewed.

In this case the odds are nearly 100% even with the scramble. So you can compare average TUV swing and see if it changes between the two. In this case I think it is essentially flat. Which means on average each of your fighters gets a plane. But part of that is because the engine is automatically selecting a 12-ipc strat bomber as my 2nd and 3rd casualty, so it would probably be more like a -4 IPC avg TUV if you scramble.

As far as reasons to still do it: you’re already looking at a -28 battle. If you can keep that number where it is and trade UK fighters for German ones, it takes pressure of US to build more Atlantic fleet to stay close to shore, and helps Russia. I’d have to consider what I would do with my fighters if I don’t scramble them too. Maybe you want to start moving them from London towards India along the Gibraltar-Egypt pipeline. If that is more important to you than the German planes you may or may not shoot down (luck still! She can be a fickle creature…)

I also find this tool useful sometimes, when I want to look at the likelihood of a more extreme outcome:

https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/dice

For example, if I want to know how likely it is for all of your fighters + your battleship to score hits on the first round:

it is 19.75%. Since you also have a destroyer and a cruiser, you could get 3 hits from your BB+Fighters and one from them. The chance that you get at least 3 hits from your BB+fighters is 59%.

You’d still need to hit with your DD or cruiser (67% chance one of them hits), so your odds of getting 4 hits in the first round is about 50-50.

The battle calculator shows average units left for Germany being 6.73. so over the course of the simulations UK killed 4 most of the time, only 3 a small amount of the time, and 5-6 enough of the time to average a little over 4 kills total. Also a little over half of the battles went to round 2 as the Average #rounds is 1.65

TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 5

TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History

Round: 5

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 1 airfield, 3 fighters, 4 infantry, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
        Trigger Germans 6 Atlantic Wall Broken Switch: Setting switch to false for conditionAttachment_Germans_6_Atlantic_Wall_Possible_Switch attached to Germans

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Western Germany to 113 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from France to 113 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from France to Holland Belgium
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Holland Belgium
        2 bombers, 3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Italy to 113 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Vologda to Novgorod
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Leningrad to Kursk
        1 fighter moved from Leningrad to Novgorod
        1 infantry moved from Leningrad to Northern Belarus
              Germans take Northern Belarus from Russians
        1 infantry moved from Ukraine to Kursk
        5 armour, 4 artilleries, 2 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys moved from Ukraine to Rostov
        1 armour moved from Eastern Poland to Southern Belarus
              Germans take Southern Belarus from Russians
        1 armour moved from Southern Belarus to Northern Belarus

    Combat - Germans
        British scrambles 3 units out of United Kingdom to defend against the attack in 113 Sea Zone
        Battle in Novgorod
            Germans attack with 1 fighter and 1 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Novgorod, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Novgorod, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Novgorod
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Novgorod
            Germans win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in Holland Belgium
            Germans attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            British defend with 2 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 0/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 2 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 3 : 0/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 2 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Holland Belgium
                Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 4 : 1/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                British roll dice for 2 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 4 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Holland Belgium
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Holland Belgium
                Germans roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 5 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Holland Belgium
                Germans roll dice for 1 artillery in Holland Belgium, round 6 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 infantry in Holland Belgium, round 6 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Holland Belgium
            Germans win, taking Holland Belgium from British with 1 artillery remaining. Battle score for attacker is -3
            Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry
            Casualties for British: 2 infantry
        Battle in 113 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 battleship, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 1 transport
                Germans roll dice for 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers in 113 Sea Zone, round 2 : 4/11 hits, 6.17 expected hits
            Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British
                British roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 1 transport in 113 Sea Zone, round 2 : 4/6 hits, 3.50 expected hits
                2 fighters owned by the Germans, 1 bomber owned by the Germans and 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Germans lost in 113 Sea Zone
                1 destroyer owned by the British, 1 cruiser owned by the British and 1 fighter owned by the British lost in 113 Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers in 113 Sea Zone, round 3 : 5/7 hits, 4.00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 battleship, 2 fighters and 1 transport in 113 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 2.00 expected hits
                1 transport owned by the British, 1 battleship owned by the British and 2 fighters owned by the British lost in 113 Sea Zone
            Germans win with 1 bomber, 3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 31
            Casualties for Germans: 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
            Casualties for British: 1 battleship, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 1 transport
        Battle in Kursk
            Germans attack with 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Kursk, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Kursk, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Kursk, round 3 : 3/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Kursk, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Kursk
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Kursk
            Germans win with 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in Rostov
            Germans attack with 5 armour, 4 artilleries, 2 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 5 armour, 4 artilleries, 2 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys in Rostov, round 2 : 5/15 hits, 5.83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Rostov, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Rostov
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Rostov
            Germans win, taking Rostov from Russians with 5 armour, 4 artilleries, 1 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Kursk to Ukraine
        1 fighter moved from Novgorod to Ukraine
        1 aaGun and 3 infantry moved from Western Ukraine to Ukraine
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine
        1 aaGun, 1 armour, 4 artilleries, 10 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Leningrad to Northern Belarus
        2 transports moved from 118 Sea Zone to 117 Sea Zone
        4 infantry moved from Germany to 117 Sea Zone
        4 infantry and 2 transports moved from 117 Sea Zone to 118 Sea Zone
        4 infantry moved from 118 Sea Zone to Leningrad
        1 destroyer moved from 117 Sea Zone to 115 Sea Zone
        3 infantry moved from Romania to Bessarabia
        1 artillery moved from Eastern Poland to Northern Belarus
        2 infantry moved from Eastern Poland to Northern Belarus
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Eastern Poland to Western Ukraine
        2 armour and 4 mech_infantrys moved from Germany to Eastern Poland
        1 mech_infantry moved from Eastern Poland to Northern Belarus
        1 bomber moved from 113 Sea Zone to France
        3 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from 113 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
        2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Normandy Bordeaux to France
        2 infantry moved from Western Germany to Germany
        1 aaGun moved from Western Germany to Holland Belgium
        2 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia

    Place Units - Germans
        2 infantry placed in Germany
        1 transport placed in 102 Sea Zone
        2 infantry placed in Romania
        1 airfield placed in Ukraine
        3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber placed in Western Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 57 PUs; end with 57 PUs
        Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 62 PUs
        Objective Germans 7 Control of Balkans: Germans met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 65 PUs
        Objective Germans 2 Control Stalingrad Or Leningrad Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 70 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : 1.67
Germans regular : -3.17
British regular : -1.17

Savegame

TripleA Turn Summary: Japanese round 5

TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 1 airfield, 1 artillery, 1 battleship, 1 fighter, 5 infantry, 1 marine and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        2 infantry moved from Japan to 6 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 6 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from 36 Sea Zone to Manilla
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Davao to 36 Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from 35 Sea Zone to 22 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Marianas to 22 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 22 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 132 Sea Zone to Malaya
        1 infantry moved from Sumatra to 38 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 38 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
        1 marine moved from Dutch New Guinea to 46 Sea Zone
        1 battleship, 2 carriers, 1 destroyer, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 35 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from 36 Sea Zone to Manilla
        3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 36 Sea Zone to Manilla
        1 cruiser and 1 marine moved from 46 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
        1 infantry and 1 marine moved from 43 Sea Zone to Java
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 38 Sea Zone to 59 Sea Zone
        2 bombers moved from French Indo China to 39 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 132 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        1 battleship moved from 38 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser moved from 38 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from 132 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
        1 artillery moved from French Indo China to 37 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Borneo to 37 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 37 Sea Zone to 132 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 132 Sea Zone to Malaya
        2 infantry moved from French Indo China to Yunnan
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from French Indo China to Yunnan
        1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from French Indo China to Hunan
        1 infantry moved from Kiangsi to Hunan
        1 infantry moved from Anhwe to Kiangsi
        1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers moved from French Indo China to Hunan
        1 cruiser moved from 132 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone

    Combat - Japanese
        Battle in 59 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 tactical_bomber
            British defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the British lost in 59 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for British: 1 transport
        Battle in Malaya
            Japanese attack with 2 artilleries and 2 infantry
            British defend with 1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 1 infantry; UK_Pacific defend with 1 harbour
                Japanese roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 cruiser in Malaya, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 2 artilleries and 2 infantry in Malaya, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                UK_Pacific roll dice for 1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Malaya, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 aaGun owned by the British lost in Malaya
                Japanese roll dice for 2 artilleries and 2 infantry in Malaya, round 3 : 3/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                UK_Pacific roll dice for 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Malaya, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the British and 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Malaya
            Japanese win, taking Malaya from UK_Pacific with 2 artilleries and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
            Casualties for British: 1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 1 infantry
        Battle in Manilla
            Japanese attack with 3 fighters, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            Americans defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 battleship in Manilla, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 infantry in Manilla, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Manilla
            Japanese win, taking Manilla from Americans with 3 fighters, 3 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry
        Battle in Java
            Japanese attack with 1 infantry and 1 marine
            British defend with 1 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 2 cruisers in Java, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry and 1 marine in Java, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                UK_Pacific roll dice for 1 infantry in Java, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry and 1 marine in Java, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                UK_Pacific roll dice for 1 infantry in Java, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Java
            Japanese win, taking Java from UK_Pacific with 1 infantry and 1 marine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry
        Battle in 39 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 2 bombers and 1 submarine
            British defend with 1 destroyer
                Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 39 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Japanese roll dice for 2 bombers in 39 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in 39 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the British lost in 39 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 2 bombers and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
        Battle in Hunan
            Japanese attack with 1 armour, 1 fighter, 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
            Chinese defend with 3 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 1 armour, 1 fighter, 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 2 tactical_bombers in Hunan, round 2 : 4/6 hits, 2.83 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 3 infantry in Hunan, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 1 mech_infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Hunan
                3 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Hunan
            Japanese win, taking Hunan from Chinese with 1 armour, 1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 1
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            Casualties for Chinese: 3 infantry
        Battle in Yunnan
            Japanese attack with 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            British defend with 1 artillery
                Japanese roll dice for 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Yunnan, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 1 artillery in Yunnan, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the British lost in Yunnan
            Japanese win, taking Yunnan from Chinese with 1 fighter, 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
            Casualties for British: 1 artillery

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yunnan to French Indo China
        1 fighter and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Hunan to French Indo China
        1 fighter moved from French Indo China to 43 Sea Zone
        1 carrier and 1 destroyer moved from 38 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 59 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone
        2 bombers moved from 39 Sea Zone to French Indo China
        3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Manilla to 36 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Japan to Davao
        1 destroyer moved from 6 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 artillery moved from Amur to Buryatia
        3 artilleries moved from Buryatia to Buyant-Uhaa
        2 infantry moved from Southern Manchuria to Buyant-Uhaa
        1 infantry moved from Southern Manchuria to Jehol
        1 infantry moved from Jehol to Chahar
        1 infantry moved from Jehol to Anhwe
        1 artillery moved from Anhwe to Kiangsi
        1 fighter moved from Japan to Davao
        1 destroyer moved from 36 Sea Zone to 43 Sea Zone

    Place Units - Japanese
        1 battleship and 1 transport placed in 6 Sea Zone
        1 fighter and 1 marine placed in Japan
        1 airfield, 1 artillery and 2 infantry placed in French Indo China
        3 infantry placed in Southern Manchuria

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 1
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 42 Sea Zone. Rolls: 1
        Japanese collect 60 PUs (1 lost to blockades); end with 60 PUs
        Objective Japanese 6 Home Islands: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 63 PUs
        Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 68 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese regular : 0.67
Americans regular : -0.33
Japanese regular : 0.83
UK_Pacific regular : -2.00
British regular : -0.33

Savegame

@max334 scramble 2 fighters and tac to Yunnan.