trying something different, to mix things up :)
L24 PTV: Nikola1975 (Axis +12) vs. Stucifer (Allies)
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@Stucifer I am getting a feeling that dice does not like the Emperor. That battleship last time, now Malaya and the whole of South-eastern Asia. You might get lucky with low chance attack, try it :)
Good job with the Soviets, though.
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Yeah, for some reason I completely spaced the 12 planes you had there for Amur, but I’ll trade some units in Siberia for keeping you off the money islands a bit longer ;)
Scramble option for 115 -
Game History
Round: 8 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 1 battleship, 2 carriers, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 1 bomber moved from Greece to 115 Sea Zone 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from United Kingdom to 115 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 112 Sea Zone to 115 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from 42 Sea Zone to Sumatra 1 infantry moved from New Britain to 48 Sea Zone 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 48 Sea Zone to 46 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from 46 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea
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@Stucifer No.
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Will continue with China/UK later tonight. Sorry if you got 2 emails with dice, one with 2 hits, and one with 3, I forgot I wasn’t on local game when I was planning the attack on 115 vs strat bombing
Game History
Round: 8 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 1 battleship, 2 carriers, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 1 bomber moved from Greece to 115 Sea Zone 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from United Kingdom to 115 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 112 Sea Zone to 115 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from 42 Sea Zone to Sumatra 1 infantry moved from New Britain to 48 Sea Zone 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 48 Sea Zone to 46 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from 46 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea Combat - Americans Battle in Sumatra Battle in Dutch New Guinea Battle in 115 Sea Zone Americans attack with 2 bombers, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber Germans defend with 1 destroyer, 1 submarine and 1 transport Americans win, taking Sumatra from Japanese, taking Dutch New Guinea from Japanese with 2 bombers, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 20 Casualties for Germans: 1 destroyer, 1 submarine and 1 transport Non Combat Move - Americans 1 bomber moved from 115 Sea Zone to Greece 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 115 Sea Zone to United Kingdom 1 infantry moved from Cyprus to 101 Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Greece 1 battleship, 1 carrier and 1 cruiser moved from 83 Sea Zone to 82 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Greece to 82 Sea Zone 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser and 1 fighter moved from 82 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from New Guinea to 55 Sea Zone 1 cruiser and 1 marine moved from 55 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from 42 Sea Zone to Sumatra 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 2 submarines moved from 11 Sea Zone to 32 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Wake Island to 32 Sea Zone 2 submarines moved from 32 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone Place Units - Americans 1 carrier placed in 99 Sea Zone 1 infantry placed in Greece 1 battleship, 1 carrier and 1 destroyer placed in 11 Sea Zone 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber placed in 11 Sea Zone Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 59 PUs; end with 59 PUs Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 69 PUs Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 74 PUs Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 79 PUs
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TripleA Move Summary: British round 8
TripleA Move Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory
Game History
Round: 8 Combat Move - British 1 infantry moved from Romania to Yugoslavia 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Greece to Yugoslavia 1 fighter moved from United Kingdom to Morocco 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Gibraltar to 94 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 94 Sea Zone to Morocco 1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to Morocco 1 cruiser moved from 101 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone 1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 99 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone 1 armour and 1 infantry moved from Greece to 101 Sea Zone 1 armour, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone 1 armour moved from 94 Sea Zone to Morocco 1 infantry moved from 94 Sea Zone to Morocco 1 fighter moved from 99 Sea Zone to Yugoslavia 1 armour moved from Yunnan to Kwangtung UK_Pacific take Kwangtung from Japanese
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@nikola1975 And now scramble decision in Morocco - 70% odds with bombard, figured not quite high enough for me to skip asking
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@Stucifer Yes, scramble two fighters.
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TripleA Turn Summary: UK_Pacific round 8
TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory
Game History
Round: 8 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 1 battleship, 2 carriers, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 1 bomber moved from Greece to 115 Sea Zone 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from United Kingdom to 115 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 112 Sea Zone to 115 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from Java to 42 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from 42 Sea Zone to Sumatra 1 infantry moved from New Britain to 48 Sea Zone 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 48 Sea Zone to 46 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from 46 Sea Zone to Dutch New Guinea Combat - Americans Battle in Sumatra Battle in Dutch New Guinea Battle in 115 Sea Zone Americans attack with 2 bombers, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber Germans defend with 1 destroyer, 1 submarine and 1 transport Americans roll dice for 2 bombers, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber in 115 Sea Zone, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 3.00 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 115 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 transport in 115 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 destroyer owned by the Germans, 1 submarine owned by the Germans and 1 transport owned by the Germans lost in 115 Sea Zone Americans win, taking Sumatra from Japanese, taking Dutch New Guinea from Japanese with 2 bombers, 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 20 Casualties for Germans: 1 destroyer, 1 submarine and 1 transport Non Combat Move - Americans 1 bomber moved from 115 Sea Zone to Greece 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 115 Sea Zone to United Kingdom 1 infantry moved from Cyprus to 101 Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Greece 1 battleship, 1 carrier and 1 cruiser moved from 83 Sea Zone to 82 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Greece to 82 Sea Zone 1 battleship, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser and 1 fighter moved from 82 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from New Guinea to 55 Sea Zone 1 cruiser and 1 marine moved from 55 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone 1 marine moved from 42 Sea Zone to Sumatra 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 2 submarines moved from 11 Sea Zone to 32 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Wake Island to 32 Sea Zone 2 submarines moved from 32 Sea Zone to 55 Sea Zone Place Units - Americans 1 carrier placed in 99 Sea Zone 1 infantry placed in Greece 1 battleship, 1 carrier and 1 destroyer placed in 11 Sea Zone 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber placed in 11 Sea Zone Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 59 PUs; end with 59 PUs Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 69 PUs Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 74 PUs Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 79 PUs Purchase Units - Chinese Trigger Chinese Artillery Supplies: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Open Chinese buy 4 artilleries and 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Chinese Trigger Chinese Guerilla Kiangsi: Chinese has 1 infantry placed in Kiangsi 1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Szechwan to Hunan 1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Kwangsi Chinese take Kwangsi from Japanese 2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Honan to Anhwe 1 infantry moved from Szechwan to Hunan 1 fighter moved from Szechwan to Anhwe Combat - Chinese Chinese creates battle in territory Kiangsi Battle in Hunan Chinese attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry Japanese defend with 1 artillery Chinese roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Hunan, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 artillery in Hunan, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Hunan 1 artillery owned by the Japanese lost in Hunan Chinese win, taking Kiangsi from Japanese, taking Hunan from Japanese with 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 1 Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery Battle in Anhwe Chinese attack with 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 2 infantry Japanese defend with 1 infantry Chinese roll dice for 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Anhwe, round 2 : 2/5 hits, 1.83 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Anhwe, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Anhwe Chinese win, taking Anhwe from Japanese with 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Chinese 1 fighter moved from Anhwe to Szechwan Place Units - Chinese 1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Anhwe 3 artilleries placed in Yunnan Turn Complete - Chinese Chinese collect 15 PUs; end with 15 PUs Objective Chinese 1 Burma Road: Chinese met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 18 PUs Purchase Units - British British buy 1 artillery, 1 destroyer, 1 factory_minor, 1 fighter, 4 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Purchase Units - UK_Pacific UK_Pacific buy 1 artillery and 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; Combat Move - British 1 infantry moved from Romania to Yugoslavia 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Greece to Yugoslavia 1 fighter moved from United Kingdom to Morocco 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Gibraltar to 94 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 94 Sea Zone to Morocco 1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to Morocco 1 cruiser moved from 101 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone 1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 99 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone 1 armour and 1 infantry moved from Greece to 101 Sea Zone 1 armour, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone 1 armour moved from 94 Sea Zone to Morocco 1 infantry moved from 94 Sea Zone to Morocco 1 fighter moved from 99 Sea Zone to Yugoslavia 1 armour moved from Yunnan to Kwangtung UK_Pacific take Kwangtung from Japanese Combat - British Germans scrambles 2 units out of 93 Sea Zone to defend against the attack in Morocco Battle in Morocco British attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 2 infantry Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 2 infantry Germans roll AA dice in Morocco : 0/2 hits, 0.33 expected hits British roll dice for 2 battleships and 2 cruisers in Morocco, round 2 : 4/4 hits, 2.33 expected hits British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 2 infantry in Morocco, round 2 : 2/6 hits, 2.33 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 aaGun, 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 2 infantry in Morocco, round 2 : 2/5 hits, 2.33 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the British lost in Morocco 1 aaGun owned by the Germans, 1 artillery owned by the Germans, 2 fighters owned by the Germans and 2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Morocco British win, taking Morocco from Germans with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 29 Casualties for British: 2 infantry Casualties for Germans: 1 aaGun, 1 artillery, 2 fighters and 2 infantry Battle in Yugoslavia British attack with 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber Italians defend with 1 infantry British roll dice for 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Yugoslavia, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.83 expected hits Italians roll dice for 1 infantry in Yugoslavia, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the British lost in Yugoslavia 1 infantry owned by the Italians lost in Yugoslavia British win with 2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0 Casualties for British: 1 infantry Casualties for Italians: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - British 1 carrier moved from 99 Sea Zone to 94 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Morocco to Gibraltar 1 fighter moved from Morocco to 94 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to 99 Sea Zone 1 tactical_bomber moved from 99 Sea Zone to Greece 1 fighter moved from Yugoslavia to 99 Sea Zone 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Yugoslavia to Greece 1 armour, 1 artillery, 2 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Romania to Bulgaria 1 artillery and 7 infantry moved from Greece to Bulgaria 3 transports moved from 101 Sea Zone to 100 Sea Zone 2 artilleries and 1 infantry moved from Egypt to 100 Sea Zone 3 infantry moved from Trans-Jordan to 100 Sea Zone 2 artilleries, 4 infantry and 3 transports moved from 100 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone 2 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Albania 1 cruiser and 1 marine moved from 83 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 80 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone 1 carrier and 2 fighters moved from 40 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Szechwan 1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Shan State 1 fighter moved from Western India to Yunnan 1 fighter moved from Western India to Sumatra 1 infantry moved from Southern Persia to Baluchistan 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Union of South Africa to 73 Sea Zone 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 73 Sea Zone to 83 Sea Zone 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 83 Sea Zone to Egypt 1 transport moved from 83 Sea Zone to 73 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Anglo-Egyptian Sudan to Egypt 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 83 Sea Zone Place Units - British 1 factory_minor placed in Iraq 2 infantry placed in Egypt 1 artillery placed in Union of South Africa 1 destroyer and 1 transport placed in 82 Sea Zone 1 infantry placed in Southern Persia 1 infantry placed in Union of South Africa 1 fighter placed in Egypt 1 transport placed in 73 Sea Zone Turn Complete - British British collect 47 PUs; end with 47 PUs Objective British 4 Control Convoy Lanes: British met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 50 PUs Objective British 1 Original: British met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 53 PUs Objective British 2 Southern Europe Beach Head: British met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 56 PUs Place Units - UK_Pacific 1 artillery and 3 infantry placed in Eastern India Turn Complete - UK_Pacific Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 5 Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 132 Sea Zone. Rolls: 2,5,6,4,3,2,4 UK_Pacific collect 10 PUs (5 lost to blockades); end with 12 PUs Trigger UK Pacific 4 No Enemy Submarines: UK_Pacific met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 15 PUs Objective UK Pacific 2 Kwangtung And Malaya: UK_Pacific met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 18 PUs Some Units in Eastern India change ownership: 1 artillery and 3 infantry
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Chinese regular : 0.17 Americans regular : 0.00 Italians regular : 0.67 Japanese regular : 0.33 Germans AA : -0.33 Germans regular : -0.83 British regular : 1.50
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British fleet has no chill, those bombard dice!! 😲
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TripleA Turn Summary: Italians round 8
TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory
Game History
Round: 8 Combat Move - Italians 1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia Combat - Italians Non Combat Move - Italians Turn Complete - Italians Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 1 Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 99 Sea Zone. Rolls: 6,1,5,4,6,6 Italians collect 8 PUs (1 lost to blockades); end with 8 PUs
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
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Game History
Round: 8 Purchase Units - ANZAC ANZAC buy 1 destroyer and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; Combat Move - ANZAC 1 destroyer moved from 64 Sea Zone to 58 Sea Zone 2 fighters moved from 42 Sea Zone to 58 Sea Zone Combat - ANZAC Battle in 58 Sea Zone ANZAC attack with 1 destroyer and 2 fighters Japanese defend with 1 submarine ANZAC roll dice for 1 destroyer and 2 fighters in 58 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.33 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 submarine in 58 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the Japanese lost in 58 Sea Zone ANZAC win with 1 destroyer and 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Japanese: 1 submarine Non Combat Move - ANZAC 2 fighters moved from 58 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from Queensland to Wake Island 1 destroyer moved from 55 Sea Zone to 42 Sea Zone 1 submarine moved from 64 Sea Zone to 45 Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from 99 Sea Zone to Greece 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Queensland to New South Wales Place Units - ANZAC 1 destroyer and 1 transport placed in 64 Sea Zone Turn Complete - ANZAC ANZAC collect 11 PUs; end with 13 PUs Trigger ANZAC 1 Control Original And Malaya: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 16 PUs Objective ANZAC 3 Pacific Supply Lines: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 19 PUs Objective ANZAC 2 Control Strategic Islands: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 22 PUs Combat Move - French Non Combat Move - French 1 infantry moved from Scotland to United Kingdom 1 infantry moved from Algeria to Morocco 1 destroyer moved from 101 Sea Zone to 99 Sea Zone Turn Complete - French
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Japanese regular : -0.17 ANZAC regular : -0.33
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@Stucifer Bah. This is not fun anymore - the income difference is too big for few rounds now and I can’t see how to overturn it. You are defending all key points very well, and threatening to take some additional income in new round.
I will surrender. Very well played. It might have been too easy for you, this one?
Looking back what I did wrong:
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The Iceland adventure to chase that battleship was probably the first big mistake in Europe - the fleet went too far away, it was basically shut off from the game for some time, allowing Allies to kill the Italian.
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Not enough focus in Barbarossa.
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Taking Guinea island seemed like like a good idea, but again, I was too far, and it was too easy for Americans to disrupt that income, while Pacific UK managed to build defense. Japan seemed ok for some time, but lost too much time there, while not really threatening Australia.
- Few wrong “small” decisions on battles, which just made the situation worse.
What do you think?
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@nikola1975 I agree with all of those points.
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Iceland the battle went well for you but gave me breathing room as the UK to put more money into Egypt without worrying about a Sealion. I almost didn’t scramble the fighters because losing those ships doesn’t put me any further behind than I usually am as the UK in the Atlantic with a German naval build on round 1.
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Definitely put Italy to the screws and kept my income as UK to the point I was barely putting resources into the Med as the US. I think if you don’t do Sealion you are probably best off with Germany focusing on either supporting Italy getting its NOs in the Med or with Italy focusing on getting some income in Russia that can’t be convoyed and supporting Germany with a strong mechanized can-opener force, going for the Southern Caucasus hard.
I also prefer to push hard to Leningrad early and often build a 2nd transport in the Baltic to shuck 4 infantry in each round. This has the added benefit of making Norway a less tantalizing target to the Allies. It also lets me exert pressure on Moscow early while pivoting mechanized to Stalingrad, ideally forcing the USSR to retreat and only trade it by round 5 or 6. Italy if supporting can rush through to capture Southern Caucasus and at that point I should be around 80+ with Germany. -
Guinea/Solomons is a good NO to suffocate the ANZAC but you have to have really good fleet positioning to keep the flies away. Priority is always the money islands for me, but denying ANZAC or UK is pretty high too. I really like the Wake Island hold as the US if I can get away with it.
The Phillipines/SZ36 seems underrated in a lot of games I see as the primary staging area for your main fleet.
I like SZ37 and use it a lot but it, doesn’t have the reach to SZ55. From 36, you are forcing the Allies to use either 2 blockers or not hold 55. 36 also supports amphib attacks on Wake, Marshall, Gilbert, all of Indonesia, Queensland, and Malaya, while being able to retreat to SZ 6/7 to defend the Home Islands if necessary.
Generally I think attacking the USSR as Japan isn’t worth it, I almost always empty out Manchuria Korea and push south. If the soviets attack me, they don’t get the infantry, and I can use a couple subs between 5 & 6 to stifle any extra income they’d be getting. Eventually my economy is going from the big money in Indonesia that I can shuck some forces into Manchuria & Korea to retake that income and eventually chase them off the coast just by having a large air force and a bunch of transports for my Phillipines/FIC shuck in SZ 7.
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@Stucifer Great points. Makes me want play a rematch 😀
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@nikola1975 said in L24 PTV: Nikola1975 (Axis +12) vs. Stucifer (Allies):
It might have been too easy for you, this one?
I was worried about that armour stack coming through Ukraine for a while, but the lack of power up north let me shift everything down to Stalingrad. I think that is one of the clearest strategic errors in hindsight. 2nd was not taking Crete both to give Germans the NO and also to force a reaction from UK. For your bid as Italy if you are going to go Med I think a destroyer in 99 and an infantry in Tobruk is a better spend. Or a mech + armor between Albania and Northern Italy for a hard Barbarossa.
Although I would really stress bidding more units to Germany or Japan is more effective use of your money. If UK decides to roll the dice on the Toranto attack, even with the 3 plane scramble you are hard pressed to not lose those units as Italy, and if you do any naval buildup will be very slow and tedious. I like to try and feel the UK strategy out, let them risk the attack in 99 and take advantage of the board position that opens up elsewhere.
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Crete is a 6-IPC swing, -3 UK +3 GER. and usually you can grab Cyprus too which cuts another 3 from UK.