Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB

I vote with @trulpen. For the same reasons,
A) it was the plan before we started.
B) as the allies you should play defensive and extend the game initially for the US entry.
Unless there is a target of opportunity-taranto/tobruk.
C) the point was to save a a large portion of the home fleet. We have taken the first step there, but are still in dangerous waters. Need to regroup, and choose a better battle. Not sz110 either. I thought the point was to use this fleet to cover early us trn buys. With much less effort, the US can start invading 1+ turns earlier than a “normal” build up

Regarding timing of moves, i vote for:
24 hrs for scramble decisions,
48 for purchase + combat moves+ ideas where to NCM,
24 hrs after combat results to freshen up NCM choices due to battle results.

Also, we should believe @AndrewAAGamer comments at all times in this particular game. He has gone to alot of work to set this teaching game up ( sorry @trulpen, no disrepect intended. You are also key in this.) So his purpose is not to confuse,but instruct

Of course, if you happen to play him in another game…all bets are off.🤔

@trulpen I’m good with that. 👍

@trulpen Hmm, I and thought you were a smart guy…uh oh we’re doomed🤣

@trulpen said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

I follow your line of thinking. I’m actually in favour of it, but not in this situation. If it fails and G doesn’t lose any air at all, UK will be in a terrible position. It’s simply not worth the risk. Those air can do a much better job later on, especially during UK1, than sacrificing themselves in a lucky hope.

Also, Andrew explicitly informed us that he’d be happy if we scrambled in z110. I’m confident it’s nothing as silly as reversed psychology, but the honest opinion. And I agree with that conclusion.

If UK is lucky in that scramble, however, it’d be awesome, but it’s not even 50 % chance of getting a decent result.

BTW hadn’t seen his comment on the 110 scramble, certainly didn’t mean to imply reverse psychology, I simply put myself in his shoes under the path he is taking (sea lion off table, J1 DOW). Losing 2 planes under that is tolerable but the volatility around the outcome would certainly cause me to take a deep breath before the battle.

TripleA Move Summary: Germans round 1

TripleA Move Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 4.0

Game History

Round: 1

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 6 artilleries and 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 submarine moved from 103 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 108 Sea Zone to 106 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 117 Sea Zone to 106 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 118 Sea Zone to 106 Sea Zone
        1 battleship moved from 113 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Norway to 110 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Holland Belgium to 110 Sea Zone
        2 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to 110 Sea Zone
        2 bombers moved from Germany to 110 Sea Zone
        3 armour, 2 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from Holland Belgium to France
        1 artillery, 3 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys moved from Western Germany to France
        3 armour moved from Greater Southern Germany to France

Savegame

@Omega1759 said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

Can’t see map, is one sub not on the attack?

Hmmm, had some issues saving last night. Let me try reposting.

@AndrewAAGamer said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

@Omega1759 said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

Can’t see map, is one sub not on the attack?

Hmmm, had some issues saving last night. Let me try reposting.

All right, we want to see the dice, go KILL!

@trulpen you fooled me, that you were not a native English speaker because i thought you’re comment was a sly rejoiner, not an expression of confusion. As usual, explaining a joke destroys it, but since you asked, here goes:

I meant any future, non-teaching games anyone may play @AndrewAAGamer, they cannot make the assumption he won’t make deceptive comments.

When you said “sorry, i dont follow”, i thought you were being silly/snide and pretended to not understand because i assumed my comment was clear to anyone. So i “continued” your joke with my next comment…

@trulpen said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

We want to cripple G, but don’t want to cripple the UK. With Bismarck entering the scene, scrambling won’t risk enough german air, unfortunately. It’s a risky move to scramble, with lots of potential drawbacks. Better to let Bismark survive and then knock the sucker out with a pair or more of figs along with sweet subs.

@Omega1759 said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

Understand the reluctance to scramble, the move considers the long game and puts lots of value in reducing options for the Luftwaffe (In hands of a good player the starting Luftwaffe is worth a lot more than IPC swing).

@Omega1759 said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

Another way to think about this, pretty sure Andrew doesn’t want us to scramble and risk attrition on the Luftwaffe.

@trulpen said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

follow your line of thinking. I’m actually in favour of it, but not in this situation. If it fails and G doesn’t lose any air at all, UK will be in a terrible position. It’s simply not worth the risk. Those air can do a much better job later on, especially during UK1, than sacrificing themselves in a lucky hope.
Also, Andrew explicitly informed us that he’d be happy if we scrambled in z110. I’m confident it’s nothing as silly as reversed psychology, but the honest opinion. And I agree with that conclusion.
If UK is lucky in that scramble, however, it’d be awesome, but it’s not even 50 % chance of getting a decent result.

@surfer said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

Also, we should believe @AndrewAAGamer comments at all times in this particular game. He has gone to alot of work to set this teaching game up ( sorry @trulpen, no disrepect intended. You are also key in this.) So his purpose is not to confuse,but instruct

@Omega1759 said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

Losing 2 planes under that is tolerable but the volatility around the outcome would certainly cause me to take a deep breath before the battle.

@trulpen said in Tutor game: AndrewAAGamer (X) vs trulpen [and everyone else] (A+50) OOB:

For me, if I was in his shoes, I’d be full of anticipation.

Wow - lot of comments here. Excellent!

So turlpen’s logic regarding the SZ 110 scramble is accurate as is surfer’s comments that I am trying to instruct and not confuse. As this is a Tutor game anything I post is, IMHO, the correct way to play. Omega1759’s comments that SZ 110 could be very bad for Germany is also true, but only if the dice are not average.

Let’s dive into the SZ 110 battle.
With a 3 fighter scramble ON AVERAGE the Allies are going to lose 3 fighters and the Axis is going to lose 2 fighters. Two fighters and not a fighter/tactical combo because a fighter/tactical combo is better at Sea offensively than two fighters but the two fighters are worse on Land because the unattached tactical bomber can combo with an armor and still get its SA. Since at this point Germany does not care about the Sea beyond these initial attacks and what Germany wants is more firepower for the ultimate battle in Moscow this means keeping the tactical bombers.

If the dice come out average than the UK has less firepower to beat up the Italians which is a Primary Goal. In addition, once the Italians are neutralized any starting fighters can make Moscow. In Moscow those fighters defend at 4 (12 OFP) and add three HP. Killing 2 German fighters reduces the German attack on Moscow by 6 OFP plus 2 HP and those fighters have to face AAA. That is a really good trade for the Axis. Finally, as trulpen points out that German BB is dead in the water even if it survives. A decent chance for free, thanks to the sub attack, and certainly on the cheap for most likely a mere sub.

Now this is not to discount Omega1769’s point. If the dice go bad than it could be very bad for the Axis. However since the average is a good result for the Axis that is hoping for lucky dice which is not how we want to play unless we think the only way we can win is lucky dice. Not sure the World feels that way yet. Since average dice is good for the Axis then two of the three results are good for the Axis; better than average and average, while only one is worse, lower than average. Not sure the Allies want to dig themselves a hole on G1 66-75% of the time.

This is not to say I am not nervous. Of course I am nervous! You never know how bad the dice might get! I do like Low Luck so much better… sigh no one likes to play Low Luck but me…

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Germans round 1

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 4.0

Game History

Round: 1

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 6 artilleries and 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 submarine moved from 103 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 108 Sea Zone to 106 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 117 Sea Zone to 106 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 118 Sea Zone to 106 Sea Zone
        1 battleship moved from 113 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Norway to 110 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Holland Belgium to 110 Sea Zone
        2 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers moved from Western Germany to 110 Sea Zone
        2 bombers moved from Germany to 110 Sea Zone
        3 armour, 2 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from Holland Belgium to France
        1 artillery, 3 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys moved from Western Germany to France
        3 armour moved from Greater Southern Germany to France

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in 106 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 3 submarines
            British defend with 1 destroyer, 1 submarine and 1 transport
            1 submarine owned by the British Submerged
                Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in 106 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 transport in 106 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in 106 Sea Zone
                1 transport owned by the British lost in 106 Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in 106 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
            Germans win, taking 106 Sea Zone from Neutral with 2 submarines remaining. Battle score for attacker is 9
            Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine
            Casualties for British: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
        Battle in 110 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 1 battleship, 2 bombers, 4 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers
            British defend with 1 battleship, 1 cruiser and 1 submarine; French defend with 1 cruiser
            1 submarine owned by the British Submerged
                Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 battleship, 2 bombers, 4 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 8/10 hits, 6.00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 battleship and 2 cruisers in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                1 cruiser owned by the French, 1 cruiser owned by the British and 1 battleship owned by the British lost in 110 Sea Zone
            Germans win with 1 battleship, 2 bombers, 4 fighters, 1 submarine and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 44
            Casualties for British: 1 battleship and 1 cruiser
            Casualties for French: 1 cruiser
        Battle in France
            Germans attack with 6 armour, 3 artilleries, 7 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys
            British defend with 1 armour and 1 artillery; French defend with 1 aaGun, 1 airfield, 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 factory_major, 1 fighter and 6 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 6 armour, 3 artilleries, 7 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys in France, round 2 : 7/20 hits, 6.33 expected hits
                French roll dice for 1 aaGun, 2 armour, 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 6 infantry in France, round 2 : 5/11 hits, 4.33 expected hits
                1 aaGun owned by the French, 5 infantry owned by the Germans and 6 infantry owned by the French lost in France
                Germans roll dice for 6 armour, 3 artilleries, 2 infantry and 4 mech_infantrys in France, round 3 : 7/15 hits, 5.50 expected hits
                French roll dice for 2 armour, 2 artilleries and 1 fighter in France, round 3 : 2/5 hits, 2.33 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Germans, 1 armour owned by the French, 1 fighter owned by the French, 1 artillery owned by the British, 1 armour owned by the British and 1 artillery owned by the French lost in France
            Germans captures 19PUs while taking French capital
            Germans converts factory_major into different units
            Germans win, taking France from French with 6 armour, 3 artilleries and 4 mech_infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 32
            Casualties for Germans: 7 infantry
            Casualties for French: 1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 fighter and 6 infantry
            Casualties for British: 1 armour and 1 artillery
        Trigger Germans Conquer France: Setting switch to true for conditionAttachment_French_1_Liberation_Switch attached to French

    Non Combat Move - Germans

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : 3.17
British : -1.00
French : 0.33

Savegame

Perfect example. Horrible dice for the Allies in SZ110. If they had scrambled not a single German plane would have been lost and this game would be over on G1.