What's the consensus on a standard bid?

lol
its just what you call strategy

@Bean:

That is the whole point - it is used to throw out the extreme dice to see the strategy.

Bean is saying LL gets rid of most of the luck, hence shows strategy.

@ncscswitch:

But LL is NOT good for strategic modeling.

Results within 1 standard deviation are to be EXPECTED.  LL basically removes that.

switch is saying LL gets rid of the luck hence its strategies are not necessarily relevant for a real game.

@Bean:

LL is not representative of ADS on the whole

Bean actually agrees too.

@Bean:

You’re basically accusing LL players of sucking at ADS because of some fluffy arguments about not planning for changes in the dice.

Bean refers to  “strategy against luck” as just luck. Switch refers to it as strategy.

@Bean:

Average dice + good dice happens more often than bad dice. If either average or good happens, you’re in good shape. Therefore, if you bank on the average, you are in good shape in the long run.

Depending on the curve “average dice + good dice” could be anyway between 50-100%.
Can’t bank on the “long run”. One failure could cost you the game.

LL strategies does not work for ADS games.
Analogy. Poker.

DM,

That came across, to me, as a personal attack on people who dislike LL games.  I know you didn’t mean it too, just letting you know it did.

Anyway, I’ve said it before, i’ll say it again, the game is completely different in LL situations.  Russia has a much better shot at the triple.  Russia should be getting Artillery > Armor, 3 defending infantry always gets a hit (vs ADS when they normally get NOTHING, or so it feels), and most importantly, 3 submarines always kill a naval vessel (except BBs) each round.  If you don’t think that last is huge, you don’t realize the danger to America in KJF mode.

Anyway, I’ve said it before, i’ll say it again, the game is completely different in LL situations.  Russia has a much better shot at the triple.  Russia should be getting Artillery > Armor, 3 defending infantry always gets a hit (vs ADS when they normally get NOTHING, or so it feels), and most importantly, 3 submarines always kill a naval vessel (except BBs) each round.  If you don’t think that last is huge, you don’t realize the danger to America in KJF mode.

Your argument has zero credibility since you go by what you feel. 3 infantry kill on average 1 unit in ADS as well - the times that they kill nothing is balanced out by the fact that they hit 2 or 3 at times. The difference comes in small battles when hitting twice is the same as hitting once if there’s only one defender left, but it still does not mean you wouldn’t make the attack.

Sorry Jen.  You’re right, I didn’t mean it to if it did.  My point is I think testing things out in LL is a great (and easy) way to learn things without the need of an opponent or the time required to play a PBEM game.

I have an Excel spreadsheet that can do LL battles and show outcomes.  It is easy to adjust, and I usually have myself miss on 3’s but my opponent hit on 3’s giving me a slight worst case for LL and it is a really good way to guage how battles can turn out.  You can really get a good feel for Europe using LL and see if you are really doing yourself harm by sending 2 inf a turn to Afr with Ger or if you are better off going all troops to Europe (after rd 1 egy attack).  These are much easier to test in LL than ADS and you don’t need an opponent to do so.

I certainly agree there are differences such as artillary and to me it seems 4’s tend to be a bit devalued in groups in LL, and economics, ipc and unit count are much more important, but you can still use LL as a guide for planning since it is much easier to look 2-3 turns ahead than it is in ADS.

And I certainly wouldn’t want to bash ADS since I’ve been playing it almost exclusively for the last year.   :-)
I think my last LL game against someone was over a year ago, but I like to test my own strats using LL, then adjust a bit for ADS.

@tekkyy:

Depending on the curve “average dice + good dice” could be anyway between 50-100%.

Good + avg should be significantly greater than 50%.

If were talking bell curve, avg should fall between +/-1 std dev.
For example if I lose a battle that I had 55% chance to win, I wouldn’t call that bad luck.  I may have come out on the “bad” end but it is still within acceptable results.  You’re right it is certaily open to interpretation and how people define luck though.

Now if you attack 2 inf, 1 ftr vs. 1 inf and both hit, is it really bad luck that the defender hit?  I mean he is going to hit every third game.  When I talk about luck, I think it is more of when a trn hits a lone bomber, which is about 16-17% of the time.

I think Avg results are anywhere from 25%-75% and the extremes are the outlaying top and bottom 25.  (one in four or one in three games)  So, good + avg to me means 75% of the games.  Those are the games I really focus on trying to win.

Now, I’m sure some people will define it higher or lower, but avg should be more than just the 50% result.  Otherwise, every time a lone defending inf hits, people are going to complain “oh I lost that game because the lone Russian inf in Kar hit on G1, you only had a 33% chance to hit.  These dice just cost me the game!”
Which I think everyone here will consider a bit absurd.   :-)
Now if that inf killed 5 infantry, 2 arm, and 1 ftr, now you have a complaint.   :-D

@tekkyy:

l
LL strategies does not work for ADS games.
Analogy. Poker.

My allies strat is to secure Afr. US builds in sz 10. Hows that concerning ADS vs LL?
My overall strat with every country no matter what rules is to build more infs than other units. Is this a LL strat
or an ADS strat?

These are my strats. I know of several LL players who use this strats as well.
According to tekkyy they do not work in ADS….  :roll:

Lucifer, the difference is this:

Inf + Art > Inf + Arm in LL (Same attack punch, same cost.)
10 Submarines > 8 Fighters in LL  (Less attack punch, but can only hit fleet units, which more then makes up for the slight difference in punch.  Make them super submarines and they have MORE punch then fighters.)

I’ve been working on a number of strats for LL.  Most of them are recycled ADS strats that have bombed big time, but work just fine in LL.

@Cmdr:

as a personal attack on people who dislike LL games.

We’re not discussing who are the best people, LL’rs or ADS gamers?
Jennifer seem to think of Taliban and LL gamers in the same manner  :?

We play A&A cause it’s fun. How many play A&A for a living…?
If A&A is most fun with ADS, either because ADS feels right, or because you are winning more games with ADS,
then you use ADS. Same with LL. The reason doesn’t really matter.
For me, it’s not a big difference, related to strats, units etc.
I have asked some ADS players why they hate playing LL, one said that the fact that you cannot get more than 2 hits
with 6 defending infs drove him crazy. He should be able to get 6 hits.
For me it’s as easy as if I play allies, and Berlin is too light defended. Germany has units left to protect the capital,
but player forgot or made some other mistake. BC says UK takes Berlin with 4-5 units left, I’m using 3-4 ftrs.
The only way for my opponent to win then is if he gets lucky…I won the game but with ADS he could be saved by
destiny…!

That’s about the only thing going for LL.  You can set up your moves 5 game turns in advance if you know your opponent well.  You can’t do that in ADS.  You’re lucky if you can follow up with the start of game round 3 after Russia, England, America, Russian, England, America and Russia go.

@Craig:

If you happen to enjoy the game by playing it with LL, knock yourself out. :-)

Craig

If you happen to be blessed by the dice gods, then knock yourself out :)

The difference of dice outcome, and wins/losses, is totally different in a league and in a ladder ranking
than in a single game. If you can win games when you lose big and important 99% battles then you are really good.

The dice is a huge factor in many games, even if many of ADS followers deny this.
The difference of a ranking and a single game is that a single ADS game often (less than 50%) is decided by one
or two important battles. Not so if you rank as nr. 1 or nr. 9 in a series of games, where most players have played
well over 20-30 games. This is the big difference between LL and ADS. You don’t have 70% win record just because
the dice gods happen to favor you over other players.
You can get 20 hits better or lower than average in LL games, add with some SBR, how much ipc is that.
You can still win if you lose 200 ipc to your opponent? In ADS games yes… :wink:

@Cmdr:

Lucifer, the difference is this:

Inf + Art > Inf + Arm in LL (Same attack punch, same cost.)

Inf cost 3, art cost 4, 1 inf+1 art is 7 ipc?
Tank cost 5, 1 inf + 1 tank is 8 ipc? Is that same cost?

It’s close enough.  Stop nit picking

Then pick this nit Jen…

1 INF & 1 ART is 2 units with a total punch of 4 (both offense and defense)
1 INF & 1 ARM is 2 units with a total punch of 4 (Offense) or 5 (defense).

1 INF, 1 ART is NOT greater than 1 INF, 1 ARM in LL.
They are equal on attack and the INF/ART is inferior on defense.

Lastly, small scale battles such as this example are still ADS in LL.

It is the large battles where the difference in LL and ADS really comes into play.

So what is the consensus on a standard bid?

6-8 for the typical player, based on Tournaments and the league games I have looked at.

@Craig:

This also why I don’t play online, PBEM, TripleA, etc.  I like to see the anguish, the despair, or the triumphant howl of my opponent when that die stops rolling.

Craig

The game was meant to be played face to face…. it’s a board game!
But I totally agree with what you are saying.  FTF rules

In the absence of that, PBEM will suffice

Especially for us addicts.

LL is a valuable tool for evaluating certain aspects of the game but just isn’t a fun way to play the game.  Just my opinion.

You WERE misrepresenting the argument. You’re saying that ADS is a superior way to play than LL. I am not even arguing the superiority of one system over another. I have already said multiple times ADS is the way to go for tournaments and I would never want to change that. I’m pointing out the exact use for LL, which you actually agree with. I am not playing LL for fun. I am playing it to test strategies. Everyone who continually tries to say that ADS is funner or more superior to LL needs to quiet down and argue what is being argued.

That’s about the only thing going for LL.  You can set up your moves 5 game turns in advance if you know your opponent well.  You can’t do that in ADS.  You’re lucky if you can follow up with the start of game round 3 after Russia, England, America, Russian, England, America and Russia go.

INCREDIBLY wrong. LL does not set up 100% moves at all. You can still lose your bomber or destroyer to that TP and not kill it. You can try the Russian Triple and still fail miserably. You can bid a sub to SZ8 and have the exact same odds as in ADS of killing SZ2. Belorussia varies from 0 attacking inf surviving to 2 inf surviving. Ukraine varies from 1 art 3 arm to 2 arm. Egypt varies from 1 inf 3 arm surviving to 1 arm surviving. Heavy Pearl ranges from losing nothing to losing 2 units besides the BB. Sounds exactly like ADS, doesn’t it? There’s still enough variance in LL to have to know when to retreat, and you still have to deal with bad dice.

And in any case, you are only agreeing with me, because you are saying that LL you can set a strategy and test it without the influence of insanely polluting dice. That’s why I advocate it as a strategic modeling tool - as well as Darth Maximum and U-505, since I obviously have no influence. If you want to test one specific factor, in this case strategy, you try to attenuate the other variables or you have to work way too hard to see the strategy - if you can even see it at all in ADS.

I thought my poker analogy was clear.
In large stack LL style you can go all-in whenever you’re the odds are that you’ll win on average.

@Lucifer:

@tekkyy:

LL strategies does not work for ADS games.

These are my strats. I know of several LL players who use this strats as well.
According to tekkyy they do not work in ADS….   :roll:

I was too generic.
By “LL strategies” I mean strategies that work for LL games. They exploit the low variation of dice. Certainty of whether you’ll lose air units for example.

You are also too generic.
I did not say your strats don’t work in ADS.

I imagine you’ll change your strats a bit when playing ADS. I imagine you wouldn’t exposure your air units on a regular basis.

@DarthMaximus:

@tekkyy:

Depending on the curve “average dice + good dice” could be anyway between 50-100%.

Good + avg should be significantly greater than 50%.

Actually is there a case where its not?

rough values from Excel 10k runs
6 infantry on attack
0 hit ~30%
1 hits ~40%
2 hits ~20%

@ncscswitch:

6-8 for the typical player, based on Tournaments and the league games I have looked at.

Now, does that change with LL?
I imagine it would be higher.

@ncscswitch:

Then pick this nit Jen…

Lastly, small scale battles such as this example are still ADS in LL.

Actually, wrong.

In ADS Inf+Art would be two rolls at 2 or less.  In LL Inf+Art is one roll at 4 or less.  Much better chance of a hit.

Yes, in defense you get an ever so slight edge with the armor.  However, it’s much cheaper to stack copious amounts of infantry and artillery then infantry and armor because of the price difference.

I’d rather send inf+art out then inf+arm and lose tanks needlessly.  Especially when Russia starts with 4 tanks and has no reason to lose any of them in LL.

@tekkyy:

@ncscswitch:

6-8 for the typical player, based on Tournaments and the league games I have looked at.

Now, does that change with LL?
I imagine it would be higher.

No, bid will vary with bid rules. With 1 unit pr. TT axis bid should be 8-9 ipc.
With bid rules that allows for units to be grouped, axis bid should be a bit lower.

@Cmdr:

@ncscswitch:

Then pick this nit Jen…

Lastly, small scale battles such as this example are still ADS in LL.

Actually, wrong.

In ADS Inf+Art would be two rolls at 2 or less.  In LL Inf+Art is one roll at 4 or less.  Much better chance of a hit.

Some expert should take a look a this. If I roll 2 dice and hit with 2 or less, is that not same probability to
hit if I roll one die and hit with a 4 or less?