What's the consensus on a standard bid?

There’s no reason to believe that an axis bid of G sub in sz7 is too powerful.
There’s 50% for G losing a ftr. G can retreat, but than means that UK navy survives.
I don’t see this often, but the triplea BC says +/- 76% for G victory, 1,5 G units left.

I once had this done to me in LL, attacker hit with subs, (4 or less), I roll for Russian sub,
no hit, G attacks, and he got two hits!!
I didn’t hit with a 5 or less!! I NEVER forget that one. Never  :cry:

A 76% of chance of killing all alied ships with only 1 bomb and maybe a fig is a very good deal for Germany. Remember that if things go bad, you still can retreat, so you only risk badly the subs.

The chances are you’ll get 2 hits in firs round and allies 1 hit. 2nd round 1 or two for you, 1 for allies. Then BB is in a ugly situation.

It can screw totally the UK position at Atlantic at a 76 %. The people banned instant tech only for Sea Lion G1 , that has less % of success  :-P

And if USSR make the Nor conquest move, better, it’s a USSR fig and armor killed and you still can go for z1 tra and z13 BB with the other sub  :-D

Retreating is not good, do you want the battleship to repair?

Why does everyone presume Russia loses a fighter in the Norway attack?

I’ve never lost a fighter hitting Norway with Russia.  I just end up with some pieces out of position, which I don’t like.  But the out of position pieces is better then England blowing an entire round to rebuild a battleship, IMHO.

(3 Infantry, Fighter from Karelia; Armor from Archangelsk)

After all, that’s a 60% chance to take the land.  All you really need is to kill the fighter there, since that reduces the attack to 2 submarines and a bomber vs battleship, transport, submarine.  Those are not good odds.

If you couple that attack with a Ukraine attack, yum, potential of two fighters in Germany killed before G1….and he builds a carrier putting two more in the water and wow, you’ve neutralized or destroyed 4 defensive fighters on the land. WEG

The only problem is that the Norway attack is risky.  It can easily go really well or really poorly for you.

Why would you re-build a battleship? Build an AC; cheaper and achieves more for fleet defence once you land ftrs on it.

@Ender:

Why would you re-build a battleship? Build an AC; cheaper and achieves more for fleet defence once you land ftrs on it.

Aircraft Carriers dont get free shots on the shore
Aircraft Carriers sink in one hit
Aircraft Carriers don’t attack well
Aircraft Carriers defend worse then Battleships (but they carry fighters.)

And why throw away a perfectly good British Battleship when you can have both a battleship AND a carrier?  As opposed to one or the other?

Well, don’t think of it as throwing it away, think of it as trading in for a 3 fighters and a bomber (1 fighter 1 bomber in SZ2, 2 fighters in SZ13).

Pretty bad rolls for ger?  :-P As average, you should lose 1 or 2 figs (one on z1, other in z13). The fig in ukr is the classic R1, and I would like you try Nor, Wru and Ukr at the same R1  :lol:

Anyway, if USSR tries nor, the damage is done, and you can still hit Canada tra and z13 BB with subs

@Funcioneta:

Anyway, if USSR tries nor, the damage is done, and you can still hit Canada tra and z13 BB with subs

You mean just the SZ 8 Subs, because the SZ 13 BB is British at the point of Germany 1. :P

Pretty bad rolls for ger?  tongue As average, you should lose 1 or 2 figs (one on z1, other in z13). The fig in ukr is the classic R1, and I would like you try Nor, Wru and Ukr at the same R1  cheesy

Well I’d hit Ukraine and let the Germans take their chances at getting burned badly of half their airforce. UK doesn’t need a bb for naval protection if half the German airforce is gone after G1.

Jen, 1 sub to Canada tra, 1 sub plus figs to z13 BB, and you lost a USSR fig with your nor attack

Bean: I’d buy a fighter instead the usual AC. Remember, no USSR sub, no UK BB, 1 tra less. UK must now buy an ac (thus saving baltic fleet) and stacking at z8 with USA, saving algeria/nor,  or lose the LAST UK tra AND american fleet if they try algeria. I’d try 3 figs, 1 bomb against 3 tra, 1 des any day.

Germany can live with one fig less. Can UK live without 2 BB, 1 tra, 1 USSR sub? Sure, but it would be more difficult.

I agree that a Russian attack on Norway is not the way to go as it’s too risky and even if it succeeds Germany can just go about it’s business making more traditional attacks without losing a step.

However, I think Bean has it right. Attack Ukraine with Russia. The UK BB is a big prize but with 1 bmb, 1 fig out of the mix for Germany’s other attacks the odds go up considerably that something is going to go wrong somewhere else. Ukraine is going to have to be counterattacked without aircraft, 3 fig vs. 1 BB in sz13 is asking to lose more aircraft, and sz15+Egypt become less effective.

Plus, the German bomber and fighter have to land in Norway which is not a very good place to have them considering that the UK still has 1 TP left and I would be more than happy to sacrifice that TP to land in Norway with UK’s air support just to kill 2 more of Germany’s aircraft. Sure, you can block it with a naval unit in sz3, but then you make an air attack on the Baltic fleet much more likely to succeed with minimal UK losses. The UK can survive without the Atlantic BB, but Germany almost never survives after losing 1/3 or 1/2 of their air force in G1. The time Germany saves by stalling the Allied landings is given away to Russia because a big part of Germany being able to press Russia rests in their air support.

@Funcioneta:

Jen, 1 sub to Canada tra, 1 sub plus figs to z13 BB, and you lost a USSR fig with your nor attack.

No I didn’t lost a Russian fighter in the Norway attack.  How do you figure I did?

3 Infantry, Fighter from Karelia to Norway
Armor from Archangelsk to Norway

I have a 98% chance of having my fighter survive that battle and a 52% chance of killing the German fighter there.  According to frood.

(1 Attacking Units Must Survive, 3 Infantry, Armor, Fighter vs 3 Infantry, Fighter)

I think your math is wrong there, Commander.

I’m getting:

Norway taken-43.4%
cleared w/1 Rus fig remaining-16.4%
completely cleared-7%
attack fails-33.2%

You only really have to kill the German Norway fighter to make the German sz2 attack not worthwhile, but it’s still a 60/40 attack and it just doesn’t seem worth it to risk the Russian fighter. Better to do the typical Ukr/WR or even the Belo/WR attacks and let Germany spread itself thin on G1.

@U-505:

I think your math is wrong there, Commander.

I’m getting:

Norway taken-43.4%
cleared w/1 Rus fig remaining-16.4%
completely cleared-7%
attack fails-33.2%

You only really have to kill the German Norway fighter to make the German sz2 attack not worthwhile, but it’s still a 60/40 attack and it just doesn’t seem worth it to risk the Russian fighter. Better to do the typical Ukr/WR or even the Belo/WR attacks and let Germany spread itself thin on G1.

I get about the same numbers too

Not my numbers, their froods numbers.

Run it like this:

Norway:

Attacker: 3 Infantry, Armor, Fighter
Defender: 3 Infantry, Fighter

Make sure you put in the box that one attacker MUST survive. (This is the fighter which will land somewhere nice and safe where it cannot be harmed.)

It’s hard to tell from my sim’s overall numbers how often you will succeed in taking land. Yes, in 53% of cases you will wipe out the Germans, but of those times, there will be some times when Russia survives with only 1 Ftr.

To get a better sense, you could put that 2 attacking units must survive, but that’s not very accurate either.

The only way to really tell is to look at the IPC diff. graph:
Probability % IPC loss differential
1.4% 19 IPCs
6.9% 16 IPCs
15.6% 13 IPCs
18.3% 10 IPCs

Germany has 19 IPCs of material in Norway. So an ILD (IPC Loss Differential) of 19 is total victory, without loss.
ILD of 16 means 1 Inf lost in taking Norway
13 means 2 Inf lost
10 means 3 Inf lost

Those are the 4 best case scenarios for the attack, and the only ones in which Russia successfully takes Norway. They add up to 42.2%.

Those are MY numbers. :evil:

I think I have found the issue.

You guys want to take the land.  I want to kill the defending fighter.  I could care less about taking the land!  Without that fighter, it becomes 2 submarines, bomber vs battleship, transport, submarine.  And those odds have the defending battleship surviving in 2 out of 3 battles, which is what is important.

And you can’t all Nor, Ukr, wru. Even cannot attack nor, wru, bel. The risk of losing the fig is still there. And you left a tasty tank for counter by trannie  :-D

Even if you win at Nor, I still can hit z1 tra with 1 sub and go for z13 BB with the other sub plus figs . Norway attack disturbs greatly r1 and still the subs can do some work

-And it kills a tasty icecream tank. I call it tancream (chinese guy voice)
-That’s good (Homer Simpson voice)
-But the tancream is cursed
-That’s bad
-Tancream has a beautiful T-series design

• …. ???
  -That’s good

:lol:

I don’t have to hit Norway, W. Russia and Ukraine

Just hit W. Russia and Norway.  Very doable, and I don’t need the Norwegian land.  So yea, there might be a tank there to kill, it might not be there.  Point is, you kill the fighter thus ending the fighter, bomber, 2 submarine attack on SZ 2 and saving the battleship.

All that, and you don’t even lose a fighter!  (And since I don’t normally hit Ukraine anyway, I like to just hit W. Russia, this also nets me a fighter I otherwise would not have killed.)