What's the consensus on a standard bid?

[trihero]

You can send the BB and tra for egy still and kill the BB at Gibraltar with 3 figs

Yuck! Big chance to lose 2 figs. If Russia attacked Ukraine, you have 5 figs. 1 used in SZ2, 3 used in SZ13, then you have 1 left between the destroyer or Egypt. Whichever battle you don’t use it in lowers your chances of getting anywhere.

[frood]

I see it this way: one Z8 sub goes to Z13 as fodder for an attack on that BB, and the other heads to Z2 or Z1, whichever. Now that I think about it though, you are really stretching out the Luftwaffe, but anyway…

So in the north atlantic, you are essentially trading a TRN for a sub. If you press the attack, you might trade a BB for some air units. Is that worth it? I’m thinking not.

You have 5-6 fighters and a bomber. Those have to:

• retake Belo if it was taken
• trade Karelia if Russia left an Inf there
• Help with Egypt
• Help with attacking the DD in Z14
• Help with attacking the BB in Z12
• land in WEU if possible to deter an Algeria landing in UK1/US1

I will always commit whatever I can to taking Egypt. If you fail to take it, not only is UK possibly up 1 Ftr, they can also bring 1 DD 1 TRN 1 AC into the mediterranean. That’s a lot more navy than 1 BB, and it will end Germany’s hopes of getting any income from Africa.

So 1 Ftr 1 Bom are going to Egypt, and if I can spare it, 1 to attack the DD in Z12. 2-3 ftrs minimum are needed for that, because if the BB lives any longer than 1 round, it’s very likely that you’ll lose an air unit.

The Bom is needed for egypt b/c that is priority #1, which leaves 1 Ftr 1 Sub at most to attack the north atlantic BB+TRN. Not a good attack.

I can see that if the dice are in your favour, that it could work out very well. But I think you’ll get burned more often than not.

[Jennifer]

Someone played the Submarine to SZ 8 card on me.  Russia took Norway on round 1.  Threat to UK BB in SZ 2 ended.

More deadly would be the transport to SZ 14.  Now you can carry 4 ground units out of the med on G2, that’s pretty significant.

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And for the record, I’m not for forcing 2 games per opponent.  But I am for heavily suggesting that the second game be flip sides.  Maybe if the bids were logged we could arrange it so that when the second game is played, you get the bid you originally put in.  Dunno how we’d do that though without some kind of cheating. (One player bids 8 IPC, the other bids 30 IPC to get 10 infantry on the rematch, etc.)

[trihero]

There’s over a 50% chance not to take Norway.  :|

If you’re desperate to clear that fighter and want to risk your fighter you can up it to about 70%, but that’s really desperate.

[Jennifer]

Just build 3 Infantry, Armor, Fighter with Russia and kill a fighter if Norway goes bad.  Thing is, you need to take Norway to end the landing zone and kill the fighter there.

I just happened to be lucky and take it with infantry, armor, fighter left when I did it.

Think of it this way.  1 Fighter for Russia is cheaper to replace then 1 Battleship and 1 Transport is for England to replace.

[trihero]

Good reasoning, but the Germans also have to give up a lot to try to claim both BBs as well. They would be pitting 3 figs vs a bb, 1 inf 1 bom 2 sub against 1 bb 1 sub 1 tran which often loses them a fig if not a bom, and Egypt would be very risky. I’m kind of inclined to let them try it and get burned. That’s a lot of battles with success very far from guaranteed.

[Lucifer]

There’s no reason to believe that an axis bid of G sub in sz7 is too powerful.
There’s 50% for G losing a ftr. G can retreat, but than means that UK navy survives.
I don’t see this often, but the triplea BC says +/- 76% for G victory, 1,5 G units left.

I once had this done to me in LL, attacker hit with subs, (4 or less), I roll for Russian sub,
no hit, G attacks, and he got two hits!!
I didn’t hit with a 5 or less!! I NEVER forget that one. Never  :cry:

[Funcioneta]

A 76% of chance of killing all alied ships with only 1 bomb and maybe a fig is a very good deal for Germany. Remember that if things go bad, you still can retreat, so you only risk badly the subs.

The chances are you’ll get 2 hits in firs round and allies 1 hit. 2nd round 1 or two for you, 1 for allies. Then BB is in a ugly situation.

It can screw totally the UK position at Atlantic at a 76 %. The people banned instant tech only for Sea Lion G1 , that has less % of success  :-P

And if USSR make the Nor conquest move, better, it’s a USSR fig and armor killed and you still can go for z1 tra and z13 BB with the other sub  :-D

[trihero]

Retreating is not good, do you want the battleship to repair?

[Jennifer]

Why does everyone presume Russia loses a fighter in the Norway attack?

I’ve never lost a fighter hitting Norway with Russia.  I just end up with some pieces out of position, which I don’t like.  But the out of position pieces is better then England blowing an entire round to rebuild a battleship, IMHO.

(3 Infantry, Fighter from Karelia; Armor from Archangelsk)

After all, that’s a 60% chance to take the land.  All you really need is to kill the fighter there, since that reduces the attack to 2 submarines and a bomber vs battleship, transport, submarine.  Those are not good odds.

If you couple that attack with a Ukraine attack, yum, potential of two fighters in Germany killed before G1….and he builds a carrier putting two more in the water and wow, you’ve neutralized or destroyed 4 defensive fighters on the land. WEG

The only problem is that the Norway attack is risky.  It can easily go really well or really poorly for you.

[frood]

Why would you re-build a battleship? Build an AC; cheaper and achieves more for fleet defence once you land ftrs on it.

[Jennifer]

@Ender:

Why would you re-build a battleship? Build an AC; cheaper and achieves more for fleet defence once you land ftrs on it.

Aircraft Carriers dont get free shots on the shore
Aircraft Carriers sink in one hit
Aircraft Carriers don’t attack well
Aircraft Carriers defend worse then Battleships (but they carry fighters.)

And why throw away a perfectly good British Battleship when you can have both a battleship AND a carrier?  As opposed to one or the other?

[trihero]

Well, don’t think of it as throwing it away, think of it as trading in for a 3 fighters and a bomber (1 fighter 1 bomber in SZ2, 2 fighters in SZ13).

[Funcioneta]

Pretty bad rolls for ger?  :-P As average, you should lose 1 or 2 figs (one on z1, other in z13). The fig in ukr is the classic R1, and I would like you try Nor, Wru and Ukr at the same R1  :lol:

Anyway, if USSR tries nor, the damage is done, and you can still hit Canada tra and z13 BB with subs

[Jennifer]

@Funcioneta:

Anyway, if USSR tries nor, the damage is done, and you can still hit Canada tra and z13 BB with subs

You mean just the SZ 8 Subs, because the SZ 13 BB is British at the point of Germany 1. :P

[trihero]

Pretty bad rolls for ger?  tongue As average, you should lose 1 or 2 figs (one on z1, other in z13). The fig in ukr is the classic R1, and I would like you try Nor, Wru and Ukr at the same R1  cheesy

Well I’d hit Ukraine and let the Germans take their chances at getting burned badly of half their airforce. UK doesn’t need a bb for naval protection if half the German airforce is gone after G1.

[Funcioneta]

Jen, 1 sub to Canada tra, 1 sub plus figs to z13 BB, and you lost a USSR fig with your nor attack

Bean: I’d buy a fighter instead the usual AC. Remember, no USSR sub, no UK BB, 1 tra less. UK must now buy an ac (thus saving baltic fleet) and stacking at z8 with USA, saving algeria/nor,  or lose the LAST UK tra AND american fleet if they try algeria. I’d try 3 figs, 1 bomb against 3 tra, 1 des any day.

Germany can live with one fig less. Can UK live without 2 BB, 1 tra, 1 USSR sub? Sure, but it would be more difficult.

[U-505]

I agree that a Russian attack on Norway is not the way to go as it’s too risky and even if it succeeds Germany can just go about it’s business making more traditional attacks without losing a step.

However, I think Bean has it right. Attack Ukraine with Russia. The UK BB is a big prize but with 1 bmb, 1 fig out of the mix for Germany’s other attacks the odds go up considerably that something is going to go wrong somewhere else. Ukraine is going to have to be counterattacked without aircraft, 3 fig vs. 1 BB in sz13 is asking to lose more aircraft, and sz15+Egypt become less effective.

Plus, the German bomber and fighter have to land in Norway which is not a very good place to have them considering that the UK still has 1 TP left and I would be more than happy to sacrifice that TP to land in Norway with UK’s air support just to kill 2 more of Germany’s aircraft. Sure, you can block it with a naval unit in sz3, but then you make an air attack on the Baltic fleet much more likely to succeed with minimal UK losses. The UK can survive without the Atlantic BB, but Germany almost never survives after losing 1/3 or 1/2 of their air force in G1. The time Germany saves by stalling the Allied landings is given away to Russia because a big part of Germany being able to press Russia rests in their air support.

[Jennifer]

@Funcioneta:

Jen, 1 sub to Canada tra, 1 sub plus figs to z13 BB, and you lost a USSR fig with your nor attack.

No I didn’t lost a Russian fighter in the Norway attack.  How do you figure I did?

3 Infantry, Fighter from Karelia to Norway
Armor from Archangelsk to Norway

I have a 98% chance of having my fighter survive that battle and a 52% chance of killing the German fighter there.  According to frood.

(1 Attacking Units Must Survive, 3 Infantry, Armor, Fighter vs 3 Infantry, Fighter)

[U-505]

I think your math is wrong there, Commander.

I’m getting:

Norway taken-43.4%
cleared w/1 Rus fig remaining-16.4%
completely cleared-7%
attack fails-33.2%

You only really have to kill the German Norway fighter to make the German sz2 attack not worthwhile, but it’s still a 60/40 attack and it just doesn’t seem worth it to risk the Russian fighter. Better to do the typical Ukr/WR or even the Belo/WR attacks and let Germany spread itself thin on G1.