German Theory: G2 Leningrad attack

G1:
ensure that the Cruiser and TT are in SZ112, preferably with the BB.
Move 3 tanks to Poland.
Leave 1inf 1art in West Germany per TT
2nd TT preferable
3rd Strat bomber preferable
No need for tanks in Yugoslavia assault - just use planes and inf+art

Assuming no blocker is put down in Baltic States, this force is strong enough to hit Leningrad G2 with an amphibious assault from the Barents Sea, unless a lot of forces are moved in there. If all 16 inf possible to be moved there are on USSR1, that is a victory in itself and those forces can be bypassed. While a decent counter attacking force in Belarus would kill all that you place there, the advancing infantry and artillery will kill them in turn, so it may not be a good attack for the USSR player.

If they place planes in Leningrad with only a few troops, it’s a great opportunity to kill the USSR planes even if Germany loses more of its own stuff. Ftrs+tacs from West Germany can support the Naval part of the assault but can’t reach the ground assault.

If they evacuate, the 5 troops on the Peninsula will be cut off or destroyed in Leningrad. If they evacuate north and position south in Belarus for a counter attack, that could be the second strongest counter. They’ll have a crap load of troops both sides but be vulnerable to an attack from the 7 inf in Finland with plane support. 3ftr+3tacs+3SBs = 95% win but only +1TUV swing vs all land troops which can reach.

At a minimum, you should kill the blocker that they put down.

Either way, by preparing for this assault G1, you’re forcing the USSR player to react in a way it may not like so much.

Thoughts?

Even with the blocker, they need to do something to stop the amphibious assault via the Barents Sea.

At least you get to kill the blocker.

The major point is either cutting off a bunch of USSR troops or putting them out of position so they can be bypassed on a drive to Moscow. This move can be done with a 6art 2inf G1 buy if the Leningrad defence is weak enough.

@Marshmallow:

How do you stop a blocker in sea zone 114? I suppose you could have Italy kill it with planes on I1.

Marsh

You don’t have to - I said from the Barents Sea. i.e. assault from the north. You do have to end turn in SZ112 though which exposes you to an air assault from London.

But if you are doing that then you can’t do Taranto. That’s just about death for the UK. Perhaps you will do a Tobruk crush but you probably need to sacrifice a couple of blockers. I’d think that was a victory right there.

In general I will hit SZ111 with the BB and strafe. Perhaps one of the subs might be retreating with it.

I’m starting to go back to the part of my previous buy which would always include a DD. Save the USSR convoying off income if it lives and if not, it was likely money well spent.

I make the attack success 65% with a DD buy assuming all the RAF survived G1 and the SZ111 fleet was left with a dBat and a fighter. It is obviously going to be worse if the Cruiser survived in SZ111. A dBat, SZ91 Cruiser, DD, 3fighters and a bomber will be 44% if you buy a DD and one sub survives SZ111 to retreat to SZ112.

It’s certainly a gamble. That part I totally agree with. If there is a scramble in SZ111 but none in SZ110, which is what most people do against my G1 attack, you can press on with the SZ111 attack and don’t move into SZ112 but if things go to plan, why not?

Specifically, I didn’t bring up the G1 attack because I know almost everyone does it differently and particularly sends the BB to SZ110 and never strafe. Let’s leave the holy wars for the middle east.

Interesting thoughts. The odds on a single round SZ111 as I would do it normally (2subs, BB, ftr, tac) are 24% both subs live, a further 39% one sub lives. So yes there is a significant possibility of losing 2subs. If you are really worried you can lose a plane instead. I’ve questioned the merit of hitting the SZ91 cruiser because those subs allow planes to live in SZ110 and SZ111.

Defending SZ112 with a dBat, DD, sub and 3 fighter scramble, the BB survives 54%. I don’t think you can make that attack. If you get lucky in SZ111 and both subs don’t survive but the UK cruiser does, it becomes 87%. And 68% with one sub. All other conceivable scenarios are losers for the UK to attack.

So I’ve demonstrated you need to continue the SZ111 attack into the second round if the Cruiser survives, i.e. germany only hits twice or worse, which is about half the time. In that event you run the risk of taking out the fleet, 38% of the time if one of your subs survived. That’s the biggest risk with this gambit it seems. The chance of both the scrambled fighter and BB living is <6% with one sub but 34% with two subs.

All in all, the chance if the gambit going bad with 1DD bought seems low. Not only does your attack have to go worse than average, their one has to go better than average.

If you did all of what you posted above, I think you’d have to do an attack on Tobruk. Assuming no bid contribution and a German fighter, it’s still 86% for the attackers. Survivors of the attack will likely be taken out by the two units in Libya with air support. Then I2 they will likely be buying a CV which can protect the fleet. I don’t know how this is likely to go but I think you’re relying on the IC to secure Egypt. I certainly see how the IC purchase is on the table if you don’t do Taranto.

Yes. The downside is that bomber normally has better things to do and it also requires exposing the bomber to an inf/aaa blocker.

It’s a 69% attack against starting units in Leningrad. 49% if they put 1 extra inf in. So they can withdraw 5 troops on the peninsula back to Leningrad and 4 troops from Leningrad - perhaps more if they fly some planes in. In balanced mod, this theory has more merit if marines are bought G1.

The point here is that it slows the Soviet withdrawal to Bryansk. Particularly good if the southern force is sitting in Western Ukraine at the end of USSR1 - they can’t counter attack a force smashing the withdrawing Leningrad forces although may be able to hit a weak German force in Eastern Poland.