Countering Operation Sea Lion

1.  The SZ2 fleet is of no benefit to liberating London on UK1 if there is a German SUB in SZ1.  No way to load the ARM from ECan to even make the attempt.
2.  2 USSR FIGs to London on R1?  COOL!  Then I have 6 FIGs as Germany, not 5, because without that airpower, USSR is likely to NOT take or clear Ukraine on R1.

And guess what?  If USSR flies 2 FIGs to London, THEN I NEVER ROLL THE TECH DICE AND I JUST SLAM THE RUSSIANS!  Hell with Ukraine still being German controlled and with no FIGs in Caucuses, I just might be able to have the Germans in control of Karelia, Archangel, West Russia and CAUCUSES after G1 (as well as Egypt, depending on the bid placement).

With the USSR FIGs visiting Piccadilly, they can at most be used for a counter attack on Archangel, but cannot reach West Russia or Caucuses.  Most of the USSR ARM dead, FIGs out of position, loss of 1/3 of their starting income, Germany collecting $48…  things do not look good for the Soviets…

Oh, and that is the final point… $8 bid placed as 1 TRN SZ5…
Even with the 2 USSR FIGs flown to Moscow, Sea Lion would be slightly better than a 50/50 proposition in the above scenario IF you choose to try it.  Germany just decides if they want to gamble on 55% SeaLion, or if they just want to play a KRF with an extra German FIG, and the USSR FIGs out of the game for 2 turns…

ncscswitch,

You seem to think that if the Russian Fighters fly to England, that it gives Germany a large advantage.  If you believe that, then why should players even bid for the Axis?  It seems that the OOB game is actually fair except for the SBR problem.  Also, even without the Fighters fighting, Russia should still be able to take out W. Russia and Ukraine no problem, and possibly take Belorussia as well.

Even with the 2 fighters the Russian Tripple is chancy at best. Without them it becomes horrible.

30% belo fails (+19% just 1 tnk survives)
35% Ukr fails (+10% just 1 tnk survives)
37% Wrus fails (+8% just 1 art survives)

This means 0.7x0.65x0.63=0.29, so you have a 29% chance to suceed in all your attacks. More than 2 out of 3 times you will fail to take at least one of these lands.

But even if the battles goes average then you will have:

1inf, 1art in Wrus
1inf, 1tnk in Belo
2tnk in Ukr

Germany can now move in force to Belo (2inf, 4tnk) taking the land with 1inf and 4 tnk.
Will destroy the remainig tnks in Ukr with 2inf 2fig, most likely taking the land with 1 inf.
And will bring its norwegian inf to Arch. Then it is still possible to take Egy with the Lybian units (+ bid) together with 1fig (balk) and 1 bom resulting in probably 2inf, 1art, 1tnk,1fig and 1bom taking the land with 1art and 1 tnk. And the UK battleship will be destroyed by BB+2fig+SS.

Russia will most likely not be in the condition to retake belo (even with 3inf 3tnk bought by Russia only 50% to retake belo). And if Germany bought somewhat heavy on tnks (maybe 5inf, 5 tnk) on G2 Germany will be able to stack in Ukr.

So Russia has lost 9inf, 1art and 1tnk on R1 and will loose 1inf, 3tnk on G1, this is almost everything they had in their western territories at start of the game.

I guess the situation would be pretty grim for Russia let alone 1 of the R1 attacks goes bad.

Exactly. USSR landing 2 fighters at London in not a solution. It really is bordering on what you call a setup change.

Regarding bid, is the apparently typical ~8 IPC bid for LHTR games? Due to the seemingly rarity is there a statistically reliable figure of what the usual bid is for OOB?

OOB don’t use bids. If you use bids, is not OOB, is a mod  :-D

So no sense on playing about bids with G1 Sea Lion.

Well Ranor, then what is the problem with just attacking Ukraine and W. Russia and leaving Belo alone?

@ncscswitch:

1.  The SZ2 fleet is of no benefit to liberating London on UK1 if there is a German SUB in SZ1.  No way to load the ARM from ECan to even make the attempt.

True, and this is something I had forgotten.  However, you must still win the sub vs transport battle, which is just another battle that the Germans have to win.

2.  2 USSR FIGs to London on R1?  COOL!  Then I have 6 FIGs as Germany, not 5, because without that airpower, USSR is likely to NOT take or clear Ukraine on R1.

Russians can still hit Norway with 3 inf 1 tank 1 fighter with moderate chance of success.  “Success” being defined as a dead German fighter.

And guess what?  If USSR flies 2 FIGs to London, THEN I NEVER ROLL THE TECH DICE AND I JUST SLAM THE RUSSIANS!

You “slam” the Russians, riiight.  So you take Karelia?  Okay, then Russia can use those two fighters from London to hit Karelia and land in W. Russia on R2.  Geez, it’s like you think somehow that the Russians suddenly vomit blood and spontaneously explode if they fly fighters to London.  It’s a temporary inconvenience is all.

Hell with Ukraine still being German controlled and with no FIGs in Caucuses, I just might be able to have the Germans in control of Karelia, Archangel, West Russia and CAUCUSES after G1 (as well as Egypt, depending on the bid placement).

Trying to outrank me in the jenforces, ncsswitch?  With a Norway-WRus attack, you still have around eleven units in WRus and six infantry in Caucasus at the least (although I personally favor the 4 inf 2 art in Caucasus and 2 inf 2 armor in Russia at end of R1 in most cases).  Both WRus and Caucasus should have AA guns, meaning any German strat bombing is no more favorable unless you are playing that AA guns fire in noncombat (note this is LHTR variant, not OOB/FAQ, and G1 Sea Lion already assumes LHTR is not used as LHTR delays tech!).  Combine this with the fact that you’re saying Egypt is probably taken as well, and you’re stretching those German forces rather horribly thin in any event.  At the least, then, two UK battleships surviving G1 sounds pretty damn decent to me.  This is NO BETTER than the traditional German G1 kitchen sink attack.

With the USSR FIGs visiting Piccadilly, they can at most be used for a counter attack on Archangel, but cannot reach West Russia or Caucuses.  Most of the USSR ARM dead, FIGs out of position, loss of 1/3 of their starting income, Germany collecting $48…  things do not look good for the Soviets…

They can hit Karelia and land in West Russia.  Of course, in YOUR scenario somehow the Germans just took West Russia and Caucasus and whatever with your jenforces.  :roll:

I defy you to outline the specific German attack plan that ends with this supposedly rosy scenario.  It isn’t as easy as you seem to think.

Oh, and that is the final point… $8 bid placed as 1 TRN SZ5…

LOOK, MORE JENFORCES!  Not only do you have an African bid, you ALSO have a Baltic transport!  (shakes head in wonderment) - you’re not really ncsswitch at all, are you?  Might as well just admit it, Jen.

Only a Baltic transport bid allows a high-probability G1 LRA Sea Lion, but given that fact, the bid should damn well stay below 8.  Change the game conditions, change the bid.  I don’t think anyone’s stupid enough to give the Axis an 8 bid under game conditions that allow G1 LRA Sea Lion, but frankly if they do, they deserve whatever they get.  :roll:

Once again, your strategy of “I will only play against retards” trumps all strategies.  Mommy would be so proud.    :wink:

Even with the 2 USSR FIGs flown to Moscow, Sea Lion would be slightly better than a 50/50 proposition in the above scenario IF you choose to try it.  Germany just decides if they want to gamble on 55% SeaLion, or if they just want to play a KRF with an extra German FIG, and the USSR FIGs out of the game for 2 turns…

Look, JEN, stop trying to tweak the conditions to favor G1 LRA Sea Lion.  You want to come up with real game conditions, you can talk about things seriously.

When you start moving things around and tweaking the game conditions after the fact, what it comes down to is jenforces, pure and simple.

For those unacquainted with the jenforces, here’s the gist.  You can NEVER beat the jenforces.  Ever.

Because let’s say you did a move during your turn.  Turns out that the jenforces did something on THEIR turn - which came BEFORE your turn - that made your move a bad move.  So let’s say instead that you saw the jenforces do that move that would make your move a bad move, so you made a different move.  After all, the jenforces went BEFORE you, you can respond to them, right?  But then the jenforces would just have done something different on THEIR turn (which, let me emphasize, came BEFORE your turn).  So no matter WHAT you did, the JENFORCES got you beat on position, because they already did the perfect counter, never mind that they went before you and couldn’t know what you were going to do, and never mind that you could see what they did and act accordingly.

One of the tenets of the jenforces is that you’re retarded, and that you will always do something stupid.  Since that’s a given, the jenforces always win.  Always.

And just when you are about to march into the jenforces’ capital in victory - let’s say that although you are paralyzingly stupid, you are also unbelievably lucky, suddenly three hundred infantry appear in our capital.  Because frankly, this is the jenforces, and even your luck cannot save you.

Face it.  G1 Sea Lion has only moderate chances of success, and even then only under particular conditions.

@Bardoly:

Well Ranor, then what is the problem with just attacking Ukraine and W. Russia and leaving Belo alone?

The problem with attacking Ukraine and West Russia is that you typically need fighters to swing the Ukraine battle, and if you use fighters on R1 at Ukraine, they cannot reach London.

@mojo:

@ncscswitch:

1.  The SZ2 fleet is of no benefit to liberating London on UK1 if there is a German SUB in SZ1.  No way to load the ARM from ECan to even make the attempt.

True, and this is something I had forgotten.  However, you must still win the sub vs transport battle, which is just another battle that the Germans have to win.

not true.

The only thing you have to WIN in SZ1 is to avoid being hit by the tpt on round1 of the battle.  Then the sub dives and there is no way for UK to take back London (can not pick up units in a contested sea zone)

@axis_roll:

@mojo:

@ncscswitch:

1.  The SZ2 fleet is of no benefit to liberating London on UK1 if there is a German SUB in SZ1.  No way to load the ARM from ECan to even make the attempt.

True, and this is something I had forgotten.  However, you must still win the sub vs transport battle, which is just another battle that the Germans have to win.

not true.

The only thing you have to WIN in SZ1 is to avoid being hit by the tpt on round1 of the battle.  Then the sub dives and there is no way for UK to take back London (can not pick up units in a contested sea zone)

My point is that you have to succeed on LRA research, succeed on London, and succeed at the German W. Canada attack.  Each of those individual rolls is favorable, but the overall odds are unfavorable, as ALL must succeed to leave the Germans with a good position.

Work it out.  You’ll see.  Don’t forget Russian fighter(s).

@the:

@axis_roll:

@mojo:

@ncscswitch:

1.  The SZ2 fleet is of no benefit to liberating London on UK1 if there is a German SUB in SZ1.  No way to load the ARM from ECan to even make the attempt.

True, and this is something I had forgotten.  However, you must still win the sub vs transport battle, which is just another battle that the Germans have to win.

not true.

The only thing you have to WIN in SZ1 is to avoid being hit by the tpt on round1 of the battle.  Then the sub dives and there is no way for UK to take back London (can not pick up units in a contested sea zone)

My point is that you have to succeed on LRA research, succeed on London, and succeed at the German W. Canada attack.  Each of those individual rolls is favorable, but the overall odds are unfavorable, as ALL must succeed to leave the Germans with a good position.

Work it out.  You’ll see.  Don’t forget Russian fighter(s).

I think you miss the point from NPB

If the Russian ftrs always move to London, I would be estatic as Germany.
Before that even happened though, Russia risks a only 64% chance at taking Ukraine without their planes.

I like those odds as Germany.

You also then can run a strong push on Russia, specifically Caucasus because… guess what?  NO ftrs from London can support caucasus against a G2 assault.  Germany can mount a pretty damn strong push there if they want to for G2, and the entire Japanese air force can be in position to back up Germany conquering Caucasus if it does happen G2.

Work it out.  You’ll see.

@axis_roll:

@the:

@axis_roll:

@mojo:

@ncscswitch:

1.  The SZ2 fleet is of no benefit to liberating London on UK1 if there is a German SUB in SZ1.  No way to load the ARM from ECan to even make the attempt.

True, and this is something I had forgotten.  However, you must still win the sub vs transport battle, which is just another battle that the Germans have to win.

not true.

The only thing you have to WIN in SZ1 is to avoid being hit by the tpt on round1 of the battle.  Then the sub dives and there is no way for UK to take back London (can not pick up units in a contested sea zone)

My point is that you have to succeed on LRA research, succeed on London, and succeed at the German W. Canada attack.  Each of those individual rolls is favorable, but the overall odds are unfavorable, as ALL must succeed to leave the Germans with a good position.

Work it out.  You’ll see.  Don’t forget Russian fighter(s).

I think you miss the point from NPB

If the Russian ftrs always move to London, I would be estatic as Germany.
Before that even happened though, Russia risks a only 64% chance at taking Ukraine without their planes.

I like those odds as Germany.

You also then can run a strong push on Russia, specifically Caucasus because… guess what?  NO ftrs from London can support caucasus against a G2 assault.  Germany can mount a pretty damn strong push there if they want to for G2, and the entire Japanese air force can be in position to back up Germany conquering Caucasus if it does happen G2.

Work it out.  You’ll see.

:roll: What makes you think I haven’t already worked it out?  Idiot.

The point is that you MUST fly at least 1 Russian fighter to London to prevent G1 LRA Sea Lion.  You can prattle all you like about how great it is for the Germans for 1-2 Russian fighters to be in London, but think how stupid the Allies would have to be to NOT fly at least one Russian fighter to London under conditions that allow G1 LRA Sea Lion.

I don’t miss the point at all.  I think SOMEONE missed the point, though.

man you are cracking me up  :lol:

@the:

:roll: What makes you think I haven’t already worked it out?  Idiot.

WTF is your problem buddy?

It’s ok to tell someone ELSE to “work it out, you’ll see.”

But if someone says the same to you, they’re an idiot.

jackass.

NPB, NPB (or is it), Mojo II, the original Mojo - lets not call people idiots.

Lets keep the name calling out of it.

On an unrelated note, the jenforces term still cracks me up every time I read it.

On topic,
I think it is pretty much agreed if Russia lands a ftr on London then there are no worries about Sealion and Germany isn’t locked into anything and can do what they want to.

I also don’t think this is that big of an advantage for Ger (if Rus lands a ftr in UK).  I still often play Russia with a Wrus attack only and do very well as the Allies.  The loss of 1 ftr does not hurt this attack and isn’t really an inconvience since you can still use ftr in Kar (london), ftr in Ukr (cauc) and an rt or just inf in Belo on R2.

Switch:

16 Armor on Germany 2 is not that bad.  For one, Russia will have E. Europe, Norway, Balkans, Ukraine, Belorussia and W. Russia before Germany’s second turn since you will have nothing built on Germany 1 to stop them.  Okay, E. Europe may be pushing it.  Still, you are 16 tanks, no infantry, no fighters and no bombers.  (Of course, teh dice sim do show Germany winning 70% of the time with armor, fighter, bomber, so let’s just give you the fighter and bomber.)

Meanwhile, Russia has closed the gap significantly with a round of 29 IPC income, a round of 31 IPC income and a round of 35 IPC income.  And don’t tell me Russia cannot do it, because I’ll post the map we had (when I get my notebook back) showing my Russia doing exactly that and you did not even have a Sea Lion attempt where you wasted all of Germany’s first round of dice on tech.  And yes, you will need 8 rolls, IMHO, to be relatively sure to get the tech on the first attempt.

So, assuming you bought all tech on round 1, and Russia won with normal results in Ukraine and W. Russia on round 1, Germany will have 128 IPC in Ground and Air Units at the start of Germany 2.  Russia will have 145 IPC in ground units at the start of Russia 2.  + 30 IPC more coming the next round and each round therafter.

You can build all the tanks your heart desires.  My Infantry waves will eventually over power you and push you back resulting in a Russian win.  Even if England is NEVER liberated.  (I don;t have to liberate it.  I can send America to africa and clean house and geta ll that cash for America instead.)

I welcome Sea Lion.  America + 11 for Africa and Russia + 13-16 for most of Europe.  Who needs England!?!?

I won’t waste a fighter landing on England.  Why?  It doesn’t help me.  It helps me more to lose England, IMHO.

@axis_roll:

@the:

:roll: What makes you think I haven’t already worked it out?  Idiot.

WTF is your problem buddy?

It’s ok to tell someone ELSE to “work it out, you’ll see.”

But if someone says the same to you, they’re an idiot.

jackass.

When I said “work it out”, I meant “work it out”.  I really believe the figures support my position, and I believe that players have to think critically and see this for themselves, or nothing will be learned.

When you said “work it out”, you’re just an imitator that’s snapping back.  I still haven’t seen you come up with any sort of real response to a G1 Sea Lion threat.

Do you say that G1 Sea Lion is inherently unstable?  No.  So apparently you think G1 Sea Lion IS a threat.  But you say R1 fighter(s) to London is too “scripted”?  So in short, you think that the Allies can’t do a damn thing against G1 Sea Lion, and that the Axis should automatically win.  Sure, you didn’t say that in so many words, but how else do you interpret your position as put forth in posts in this thread?

See, I do read and think, despite being a “jackass”.  Your position is just untenable, handicapping Germany more than 50% of games with failed tech rolls, and not responding to the Russian fighter defense.  Call it jenforces, call it rose-colored glasses, call it what you will.

You got something to say, then say it.  You got some badass way of defending against G1 Sea Lion that doesn’t involve R1 fighters, let’s hear it.  But I got nothing from you so far.  NOTHING.

Jackass?  I don’t deny it.  But you’re hardly playing with kid gloves yourself, axis_roll.

Let’s play like men and smash each other with the fists of truth and logic!  A real argument requires a fight!  Hit me with your best analytical shot!  I’m not afraid!

(Maybe I SHOULD be afraid, but that’s part of my charm . . . no fear.  Or sense of responsibility!  :-D)

Yeah, rly:
http://www.upchucky.com/requests-what-the-world-needs-now.mid

@the:

Let’s play like men and smash each other with the fists of truth and logic!  A real argument requires a fight!  Hit me with your best analytical shot!  I’m not afraid!

I’d rather play like a woman and win with something you did not see or expect through sheer intelligence and beauty then use brute force in a scripted, unimaginative manner like you men. :P

Back on topic, I still say that a fighter to England to prevent a Sea Lion costs you MORE then just ignoring it.  You put the fighter in England, you do NOT take out the German fighter and you’ve just allowed Germany another advantage.  Now I CAN see a tank push strategy working for Germany.

Under Switch’s scenario, Germany takes England on Round 1.  Loses 40 IPC to tech, gets 38 IPC, loses 48 IPC in units (assuming Armor, Fighter, Bomber lives).  End of Germany 1, you are talking 38+38 captured = 76 IPC.

And, let’s pretend the submarine in SZ 1 was not killed by the transport, and everyone out there knows that those pesky transports seem to have sharpshooters on board that can take out entire squadrons of fighters without so much as scratching the paint on the transports.

England retreats from Egypt.  Lands everything it can in India, builds a wall.  Unites the fleet in SZ 30 to entice Japan into suicide against it and if they do not, then they can land in E. Indies or India with more equipment.

Meanwhile, America lets Germany take Africa so that America can take it back and collect for it themselves.  Who needs England?  America’s earning 50+, Russia’s earning 35+ and Germany’s begging for mercy because they built all tanks which die fast when attacked without infantry support. (Remember, you bought tech rolls on G1, so no new infantry.  You probably only have about a dozen infantry on the entire map at this point and no real air power to support them with since Switch wants a full armor build on G2, taht means you are trading territories iwth tanks and Russia’s taking them out with infantry.)

I do not favor the sea lion, it actually is not a topic for me, because I do not play OOB. But I have to ask why do you think Germany buys only tnks with his cash if he succeeded in England (you say yourself this is not good - and it’s not).

Furthermore I don’t see germany spending 40 ipc on tech. Because I’m not commited to Sealion. If I would try it, then I would probably only role 1 die max. 2. If it works fine, then I have the tech and can still buy a lot of equipment. If not OK, I can still play a normal game from here on, just 1 tnk less bought on G1 doesn’t ruin the game for him.

And with a russian fig in London I wouldn’t even try.

Do you disagree?