Potential Flashpoint for Internatinal Conflict

There was a thread where Iran was mentioned as a possible target of attack but I can’t seem to recall where it was!  I read this article and thought it interesting how economics might effect change in Iran if the screws is large enough and applied tight enough.  Lets home the people in Iran vote with their wallet and install leaders who will exude rational thought and peaceful ways.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19786662

An interesting random map of the Ottoman empire’s rise and fall.  One thing I will never forget…… How I felt when a Persian friend of mine pointed out to me that Persia was never part of the Ottoman empire which I had assumed.  D’uh comes to mind

http://www.naqshbandi.org/ottomans/maps/

On the geeky side…

These “Chinese Hacker” groups seem to have weird targets for their attacks and espionage.  Seems to me this is more in line with what state hackers would do:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/28/telvent_hack/

I never noticed that typo!  Funny how the brain sees things.  That’s what happens when your brain works faster than your fingers resulting in a dropped letter.  I must be slowing down in my old age, normally I would drop a few letters!  Either that or the brain injury……

I see how normal hacker groups get paid or derive purpose for what they do, but this is so obviously state sponsored it amazes me that Chinese ‘hackers’ continue to get away with it.

The Iran-Israel standoff has been going on for awhile but I take note of the last two days drop in the Iranian currency.  27% drop over two days could force some change much quicker than I thought.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19798655

And now back to Japan versus China……  not quite saber rattling yet but getting close…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19811387

I wonder if this will end up being like the Gulf of Tonkin incident.  I too support Turkey,  they used radar to determine where the incoming shells were being fired from and squashed that spot.  A measured response to a minor incident.

Now if Turkey goes ahead with talk of a safe haven within Syria due to a looming refugee status that is a different animal and not withing the scope of that bill.  I also note that a great number of Turk lawmakers voted against this and there are demonstrations against this reasonable bill and action.  Great to see the ‘Generals’ control give way to actual democracy.

This the same ‘scary’ political party fear mongerers and pundits had been warning us against.

I find it interesting that Syria and Turkey had been pretty friendly in the past.  But its all about religion.  Turkey and FSA=Sunni versus  Government=Alawite offshoot of Shia hated by Sunnis.

This does not have a Nelson Mandela moment in the ending.

Clyde, we do we have to choose what we talk about?  Can’t we talk about potentials AND real incidents?

Syria versus the rest of the world does not have a world game changing ending but certainly changes things in the region.  China fighting a regional neighbour in a hot war would in my opinion have world changing consequences.  Although I didn’t specifically allude to this that was my thinking when I started this thread.  I do appreciate your related link, thanks!

I feel bad for the average alawite, not easy being a small hated minority.  They will fight to the bitter end, they have little choice with the religious hatred brewing there.

Soldier kills two commanding officers to defect!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19855313

I don’t think this would be a big deal anywhere else.  But when the solider is North Korean and the south used loud speakers to guide him to safety into South Korea then that is a different story.

Something like this would cause daddy to initiate something to stir up the world, launching a missile over Japan or sinking a South Korean frigate.  I wonder what his son will do to teach the capitalists pigs a lesson……

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19855313

U-505, while I basically agree with what you have said especially about the Alawites being in control of the levers of power.   I recently watched a video of an alawite community burying their dead.  I agree they are on the wrong side of history, but the ‘average’ Alawite is not a local governor or general.  They are a relatively poor parent burying a dead child.  But they do feel like a cornered animal and yes partly due to their own actions, but only partly.

The Alawites would be oppressed even if they don’t have a history of blood on their hands.  Alawites are a offshoot of Shia Islam.  Many Sunnis are killing Shias just for being Shia.  Al Qaeda supporters generally fall into this category.  Shias are being killed in Pakistan by Sunnis all the time and if you look at Iraq, it’s Sunnis mostly bombing Shias, of course the Shia are now in charge of Iraq with the Sunni VP under a death sentence by the Shia administration.  Alawites are considered far worse heretics than Shia by the majority Sunni.   When the Alawite power structure falls, the powers that be knowing a blood bath will ensue if Sunni extremists are not reigned in ought to do everything they can to prevent a bloodbath.

Yes, Alawite leaders are gulity and yes the average uneducated alawite supporter is guilty of support of this murderous regime.  I however suggest you check out this link.  There are two sides to every story.   In this case one side is very wrong but we can still feel for their plight I think and understand their point of view in order to help end this terrible situation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19699446

and

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19425458

I think you are bang on vis-a-vis your observations on Turkey/Syria

I just came across this article today and thought it would fit in with this portion of the thread.

The headline…

Four minority Shia Hazaras are shot dead in Pakistan

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19961640

An interesting article on Syria via-a-vis Sunnis and Alawites and the parallel to the Spanish civil war.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19882416

This thread started out with the south china sea.  But of immediate concern would by Syria.  I am a news junkie I will admit, but of a historical bent mainly.   Some events play out slowly,  Syria has been playing out for over a year in it’s most recent throes.

A few very recent events are changing things and I think we are seeing a tipping point.

1. The rebels now actually control ground whereas months ago they did not.  One reason why they said Syria was different from Libya, no territory held unlike Benghazi.   Now that is not true.

2. No unified control/leadership unlike the situation in Libya, that just changed a few days ago.  Now country after country is starting to recognize somebody other than Assad as the true representatives of the Syrian people.

I dredged up this old thread because of two articles I read nearly back to back today.  They both relate to the hatred by some radical Sunni Muslims against Shia Muslims and Alawite Muslims.

Syrians arrested in Lebanon with explosives
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20477874

Pakistan bomb kills children near Shia procession
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20475064