Potential Flashpoint for Internatinal Conflict

[Razor]

@ABWorsham:

Do you think conflict happens between Iran and Israel?

Yes indeed, they have been in conflict for the last 5000 years, why stop now ?

But if you are talking about av full scale war, he!l no, they need each other to suppress their own populations, its a game

[Witt]

I agree. I do not believe Iran has the balls. Ultimately they have too much to lose. Funding and supporting terrorism is one thing, invasion is another.

[MrMalachiCrunch]

Razor has it right in my opinion.  An external enemy has always and will always be the best way to unify a nation.  An example is from the classic movie “Canadian Bacon”.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0R5DTHcmGU

The problem with an Israeli attack is that it would end up unifying sunnis (mostly) and shias which are normally mortal enemies.  An Iranian first attack would end the current regime as the US would really then have to step in, could you imagine the politics back home if the US sat back?

[Gargantua]

One has to understand the current status of Arab culture, and the last 200 to 5000 years of it, to realize how volatile it’s population is, and how impossibly difficult it is in those countries to maintain power and order.

It’s like when England was without a king, bloody.

People like Saddam Hussien HAVE to be extensively brutal, if they intend to last.

Again, I don’t endorse the position, but typically, violence and threat of violence, is how these regimes maintain order.  You guys are absolutely correct when it comes down to using an external force.

Watch Lawrence of Arabia for a good visual interpretation of what I’m talking about…

[Noll]

@Gargantua:

One has to understand the current status of Arab culture, and the last 200 to 5000 years of it, to realize how volatile it’s population is, and how impossibly difficult it is in those countries to maintain power and order.

It’s like when England was without a king, bloody.

People like Saddam Hussien HAVE to be extensively brutal, if they intend to last.

Again, I don’t endorse the position, but typically, violence and threat of violence, is how these regimes maintain order.  You guys are absolutely correct when it comes down to using an external force.

Watch Lawrence of Arabia for a good visual interpretation of what I’m talking about…

They need this guy again

Yeah it’s Turkish, but he’s still a muslim

[Witt]

Nice nose!

[MrMalachiCrunch]

There was a thread where Iran was mentioned as a possible target of attack but I can’t seem to recall where it was!  I read this article and thought it interesting how economics might effect change in Iran if the screws is large enough and applied tight enough.  Lets home the people in Iran vote with their wallet and install leaders who will exude rational thought and peaceful ways.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19786662

[MrMalachiCrunch]

An interesting random map of the Ottoman empire’s rise and fall.  One thing I will never forget…… How I felt when a Persian friend of mine pointed out to me that Persia was never part of the Ottoman empire which I had assumed.  D’uh comes to mind

http://www.naqshbandi.org/ottomans/maps/

On the geeky side…

These “Chinese Hacker” groups seem to have weird targets for their attacks and espionage.  Seems to me this is more in line with what state hackers would do:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/09/28/telvent_hack/

[Gargantua]

Nothing wierd about that target…

Power is a primary target in any conflict. Yea, we caught them this time, think of the electricity they have access to -shutting off- that we don’t even know about.

[Razor]

Now I got confused about the word “Internatinal” that is used in the headline. Anyone got a clue ?

[MrMalachiCrunch]

I never noticed that typo!  Funny how the brain sees things.  That’s what happens when your brain works faster than your fingers resulting in a dropped letter.  I must be slowing down in my old age, normally I would drop a few letters!  Either that or the brain injury……

I see how normal hacker groups get paid or derive purpose for what they do, but this is so obviously state sponsored it amazes me that Chinese ‘hackers’ continue to get away with it.

[MrMalachiCrunch]

The Iran-Israel standoff has been going on for awhile but I take note of the last two days drop in the Iranian currency.  27% drop over two days could force some change much quicker than I thought.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19798655

[MrMalachiCrunch]

And now back to Japan versus China……  not quite saber rattling yet but getting close…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19811387

[Clyde85]

Instead of talking about potential flashpoints, how about we talk about actual ones, like this for instance

http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-authorizes-military-operations-syria-115920854.html

Is Turkey right in what it is doing or dose this just escalate things, and how should the Syrian resistance and the Turkish Military view eachother, as allies or potential enemies?

[Gargantua]

Syria and Turkey view each other mostly as enemies.

Turkey would drop some whup-azz for sure if they wanted to though, or if the internationally community would allow it.

I support thier actions.

[MrMalachiCrunch]

I wonder if this will end up being like the Gulf of Tonkin incident.  I too support Turkey,  they used radar to determine where the incoming shells were being fired from and squashed that spot.  A measured response to a minor incident.

Now if Turkey goes ahead with talk of a safe haven within Syria due to a looming refugee status that is a different animal and not withing the scope of that bill.  I also note that a great number of Turk lawmakers voted against this and there are demonstrations against this reasonable bill and action.  Great to see the ‘Generals’ control give way to actual democracy.

This the same ‘scary’ political party fear mongerers and pundits had been warning us against.

I find it interesting that Syria and Turkey had been pretty friendly in the past.  But its all about religion.  Turkey and FSA=Sunni versus  Government=Alawite offshoot of Shia hated by Sunnis.

This does not have a Nelson Mandela moment in the ending.

Clyde, we do we have to choose what we talk about?  Can’t we talk about potentials AND real incidents?

Syria versus the rest of the world does not have a world game changing ending but certainly changes things in the region.  China fighting a regional neighbour in a hot war would in my opinion have world changing consequences.  Although I didn’t specifically allude to this that was my thinking when I started this thread.  I do appreciate your related link, thanks!

[Gargantua]

An -external- conflict will probably be GOOD for the Syrians.

Especially if Turkey can be seen as the agressor… an outward enemy to focus on that’s worse than the current regime, and more international/local support.

Good move.

[MrMalachiCrunch]

I feel bad for the average alawite, not easy being a small hated minority.  They will fight to the bitter end, they have little choice with the religious hatred brewing there.

[MrMalachiCrunch]

Soldier kills two commanding officers to defect!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19855313

I don’t think this would be a big deal anywhere else.  But when the solider is North Korean and the south used loud speakers to guide him to safety into South Korea then that is a different story.

Something like this would cause daddy to initiate something to stir up the world, launching a missile over Japan or sinking a South Korean frigate.  I wonder what his son will do to teach the capitalists pigs a lesson……

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19855313

[U-505]

@MrMalachiCrunch:

I feel bad for the average alawite, not easy being a small hated minority.  They will fight to the bitter end, they have little choice with the religious hatred brewing there.

The difference here is that the small hated minority isn’t an oppressed or persecuted minority. The Alawites are a minority that almost exclusively dominates the highest ranks of business, government, and the military where they have fostered a culture of superiority over the rest of the Syrians. It’s not like Assad has their default support due to fearful permissiveness; he enjoys fervent support for his brutality. Changes the whole innocence/guilt dynamic a bit. They share in the blood on Assad’s hands and I don’t feel any more sympathy for them than I did for the Sunnis in Iraq after Saddam was ousted.

I feel bad for the Alawite children who aren’t yet corrupted. Unfortunately for them, they will share in the collective beatdown that the Alawites are going to get when the rebels finally topple Assad.

@Clyde85:

Instead of talking about potential flashpoints, how about we talk about actual ones, like this for instance

http://news.yahoo.com/turkey-authorizes-military-operations-syria-115920854.html

Is Turkey right in what it is doing or dose this just escalate things, and how should the Syrian resistance and the Turkish Military view eachother, as allies or potential enemies?

I don’t think it’s right or wrong. It’s very complicated. It’s pretty clear that the rebels are, at least in part, being supplied through Turkey so there is somewhat of an alliance there. But, I don’t think that it’s the real reason for their decision.

There is a large Kurdish population on both sides of the Turkish/Syrian border and many of them want Turkey to cede part of it’s territory for an independent Kurdish state. As I understand it, Kurdish terrorists have been using Syria as a safe haven for their attacks inside Turkey. I don’t think Turkey cares so much about full scale war against Assad for humanitarian purposes as much as it is using these recent events as an excuse to possibly make a small incursion into Syria to root out their Kurdish enemies or at least suppress their actions if the attacks continue from across the border. Limited retaliatory shelling is just their first response.