June 28th, 1942; start of Fall Blau, case blue.
Due to Romania falling short on what it could supply as petrol to the Wehrmacht and the richness of the Caucasus in general, not only in oil, lead to a 2 proned plan to secure the banks of the Volga and occupy the entire Caucasus, possibly leading to linking up with Rommel’s units in the middle east. This would alleviate the german need for oil and create a good base for a continuation of the war and maybe arrive to an agreement with Stalin. (doubtful).
The plan was solid but relied heavily on weaker Axis forces. The initial drive to the Volga went very succesfull and the army command decided to assist the crossing of the Don into the Caucasus by sending 4th Panzer away from its march to Stalingrad and thus slowing it down, which was not expected. Later, 4th panzer was send northwards again to assist the assualt on Stalingrad. Had this change not been initiated, Stalingrad could have been taken off the march and the whole front settled on the west bank of the Volga with Stalingrad as a key point. Winter 1942/43 would have probably stopped all possibilities of crossing the mountains into Baku, but the Soviets would have had a hard time reinforcing this region and the Axis could have established a solid front, extending to Astrachan and the mountains of the Caucasus in the south. More mountain troops could have been brought up and assist in forcing a break through in the many passes, although difficult.
I am sure this strategy would have worked for 1943 and would have kept the initiative with the Axis. No battle of Stalingrad, no loss of the 6th army and no retreat from the Volga.
How the other fronts would have managed remains unclear, but it is obvious no great attack would have been initaited without first reinforcing the weak point of the Soviet front. German bombers could have started bombing Soviet industry in the east using airbases from Stalingrad.
Anyone want to commend on this?