Does an A+3 Sealion = Axis victory?

Honestly, Mantlefan/Community, I never sent planes into France to begin with. I need them all to hit British ships and I dont have any left for France.  The AA Gun is more likely to cause the British fighter in W. France to survive since I am now bringing a couple more ground units to France. (However, my attack in W. France will shift to S. France. which will give me a complex in the Med.)

Jimmy, rerun the numbers for Round 4, not Round 3.  The discussion was about could England survive a G3 sea lion attempt, no discussion (to my knowledge) was held about G4 sea lion.

I agree.  I would have put the NO in Normandy myself, due to D-Day, but the more I think about it, the more France makes sense.  The thrust was to liberate France then drive into Germany.  IF they didnt want to liberate France, then they could have avoided a lot of Germans by going around it and running along the coast, I would think.  Also, banking 22 IPC in NOs (first time liberated) in France makes the allies at least consider liberating it, even if it means losing their complexes in Normandy/Vichy France.  Though, to be honest, I’d bet many players will just count those as lost NOs until Germany is down.

Glad we are in agreement about strategic bombing runs.  To be honest, though, if I engage in it, I WANT interceptors launched.  By the time I am doing it religiously, my opponent is probably earning in the low teens and each lost fighter is akin to a 10 IPC bomb hitting their economy.  Until I hit 50 IPC a round, I probably wouldnt engage in SBR (However Germany starts at 50 IPC a round at the end of Round 1.)  I like that it is more involved too, makes the Battle of London more realistic. (Not saying it IS realistic, just MORE than it was in, say, classic or revised.)

Yes, I play fortress america and at one time I found a module for Abattlemap to play it on.  It might still be out there in cyberspace (or I guess we are supposed to call it The Cloud now.)

For the record, I never really liked the static “to win you have to do A, B and C” of some previous versions of the game.  “You have to do Sea Lion G3 or G4 to win” seemed like bull-honky to me.  “You have to invade Russia with Japan and Germany and squeeze them” in classic annoyed me too.

That’s why I’ll try any wild, hair brained idea in fun game (ie non-league/tournament) and try to find alternatives.  That way, when Sea Lion gets hit by the nerf bat, gently, my entire world does not crumble around my feet, I have backup plans and alternatives.  You’d be amazed what 3 German transports can do, and you hit Round 1 with 2 German transports in your build, England goes insane scrambling to defend London. (Why bother?  Drop 2 submarines there and watch em starve!)

Drop your fleet down to SZ 91 and you can hit E. USA, W. Indies, Central America, Brazil, and most of the African Gold Coast.  America has to at least defend against it, meaning less against Japan and every blasted IPC you can take away from the Pacific War means the world to Japan!

I always sent a few planes to Paris, tacs were great, and spared the sz111 fleet for G2.  I don’t think I’ll be sending any to Paris now, instead hitting with all ground and Normandy/fleet with air.  Getting to playtest Alpha3 for the first time tomorrow.  If I draw Axis I think I will abandon a G4 sealion for a G2 barbarossa, similar to what my opponent has been trying lately which is a G1 barbarossa with CV 2 trn build.  We are already going to amend the Mongolia rule to–Mongolia joins Russia if Japan attacks a neighboring territory.  Italy will support in Europe and harass in the Med and Japan will still try and blow through Siberia to present a second front to Stalin.

So now we are talking about G4 sealion?  Good to know, I think the only chance England has is to strafe Scotland which is going to vary wildly the results of the G4 invasion.  I could be wrong and a continued turtle or retreat might be valid options.

We use lvl bmbs in the same way then, as nails in the coffin.  I like to use them to show my opponent that indeed the game is over in just a few rounds.  I don’t see why you want their bombing ability increased.  Why is that?

“That’s why I’ll try any wild, hair brained idea in fun game (ie non-league/tournament) and try to find alternatives…”
That’s why I am willing to try the aa gun change.  It might end up being awesome, it might end up being game breaking and need a rewrite of the entire starting board units.  I’m down for the challenge.  I also don’t see Sealion taking a punch to the nuts with these changes, but I also do not believe it was a slam dunk every game move in Alpha2.  G2 Barbarossa was scary too!

***there’s a great Fortress America java game out there called WebFA.  Created by a computer programmer, most of the players are heavy math nerds, but the program does not involve downloading(last I knew), is streamlined for online play and has lots of extremely tough competition.  If that doesn’t work try Taulbee WebFA as a search.

Interesting, we came to the same conclusions. My new plan does involve sending 1 tactical to paris.

3 infantry, 3 fighters and 1 tac to Normandy!

@JimmyHat:

I always sent a few planes to Paris, tacs were great, and spared the sz111 fleet for G2.  I don’t think I’ll be sending any to Paris now, instead hitting with all ground and Normandy/fleet with air.  Getting to playtest Alpha3 for the first time tomorrow.  If I draw Axis I think I will abandon a G4 sealion for a G2 barbarossa, similar to what my opponent has been trying lately which is a G1 barbarossa with CV 2 trn build.  We are already going to amend the Mongolia rule to–Mongolia joins Russia if Japan attacks a neighboring territory.  Italy will support in Europe and harass in the Med and Japan will still try and blow through Siberia to present a second front to Stalin.

So now we are talking about G4 sealion?  Good to know, I think the only chance England has is to strafe Scotland which is going to vary wildly the results of the G4 invasion.  I could be wrong and a continued turtle or retreat might be valid options.

We use lvl bmbs in the same way then, as nails in the coffin.  I like to use them to show my opponent that indeed the game is over in just a few rounds.  I don’t see why you want their bombing ability increased.  Why is that?

“That’s why I’ll try any wild, hair brained idea in fun game (ie non-league/tournament) and try to find alternatives…”
That’s why I am willing to try the aa gun change.  It might end up being awesome, it might end up being game breaking and need a rewrite of the entire starting board units.  I’m down for the challenge.  I also don’t see Sealion taking a punch to the nuts with these changes, but I also do not believe it was a slam dunk every game move in Alpha2.  G2 Barbarossa was scary too!

Actually, we did run the counter to a G4.

I think sea lion is possible I’ve been able to pull it off on every board that says Axis & Allies except the Pacific from 2000.  On the older boards certain conditions had to exist for sea lion to take place and you had to buy into that strat. and hope they didnt counter  your move or hit to well
  It should be interesting to see

Sure it’s possible, but the question is whether or not it is a good idea. The NO for holding UK is gone, Germany has a tougher round 1, and UK has 4 extra hits on london.

The odds are now under 40% for Sealion success for G3 against a proper UK defense.  G4 is a coin flip now.

@mantlefan:

@suprise:

I think sea lion is possible I’ve been able to pull it off on every board that says Axis & Allies except the Pacific from 2000.  On the older boards certain conditions had to exist for sea lion to take place and you had to buy into that strat. and hope they didnt counter  your move or hit to well
  It should be interesting to see

Sure it’s possible, but the question is whether or not it is a good idea. The NO for holding UK is gone, Germany has a tougher round 1, and UK has 4 extra hits on london.

Read the thread title.  It never said “good idea” it said “possible.”  We are discussing whether or not it is POSSIBLE to win a Sea Lion strategy.

I want to say yes, but I think my first few Axis games in Alpha 3 are going to be the old tried and true assault on Moscow plan.  Sealion was too risky for my blood in Alpha2, but until my opponent figured out how to stop it…well…

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Is Sea Lion reasonably possible? Yes.

On G3?  Maybe.

On G4?  Definitely

Is it impossible to get Sea Lion (with reasonable results?)  No.

Is it smart to do Sea Lion?  Depends on what your opponent does, if he turtles, probably not, if he focuses on fleet/S. Africa, probably yes.

@Cmdr:

Is Sea Lion reasonably possible? Yes.

On G3?  Maybe.

On G4?  Definitely

Is it impossible to get Sea Lion (with reasonable results?)  No.

Is it smart to do Sea Lion?  Depends on what your opponent does, if he turtles, probably not, if he focuses on fleet/S. Africa, probably yes.

I repeat, as I have run the odds for you.

G3 is less than 40% with a proper defense.

G4 is vulnerable to a hit and fade attack on Scotland.

@Young:

So if you were going to wait and find out what the UK does before committing to Sealion, what would your G1 purchase be? (I’m guessing an aircraft carrier, a fighter, and an artillery).

Submarine, Fighter, Infantry, Artillery, Transport
or
Aircraft Carrier, 2 Transports (If I want England to get paranoid)

Jim, I think a hit and run attack by England would be in Germany’s favor.  You can blow a lot of infantry killing my infantry (and maybe Artillery) and I can just pull out my tanks if the battle went bad for me.  However, if the battle goes bad for England, it’s game over London.  I say pull out tanks because I doubt any hit and run will kill any of the defending tanks and might quit before hitting the Artillery for fear of leaving London open.

The transports are not wasted, they can land 26 units in Arkhangelsk, or Novgorod or a mixture really which is what would probably happen, or Russia would have to open a front in the North to prevent it, leaving the south vulnerable to a complex in Romania and transorts in the Black Sea.

I’ve never been a big fan of Sealion anyway, so this new version isn’t a change for me.  I’m quite skilled at keeping UK down with Subs and other tactics.  Spread your subs out, make UK hunt them down individually - UK hates chasing subs down the coasts of Africa.  What is a change is the Mongolia rules for Japan to have to navigate.  I am used be Japan being able to take 5+ IPCs away from Russia each round making Russia easier for Germany to crack.