The Defense Of Britain

Well, I’m all confused because on the one hand everyone is stipulating that the Italian fleet is decimated by England and then all these aircraft are magically appearing in England again.  =/

Here’s how I see it:  14 Ground units in Scotland on G3.  28 Ground Units, 11 Aircraft in England on G4.  Perhaps more if England turtles since I’d get more transports to handle the influx so I could have up to 40 ground units and 11 aircraft in England on G4 if needed.

Now, if England is ignoring the Italians, why are the Italians not making the British pay for that?

We’re talking about not doing Taranto but trying to prevent SeaLion from happening. And yes of course, if the Brits don’t Taranto, then the Italians would make them pay.

@Commando:

Not many games does Germany lose ALL it’s subs on Turn 1. (I did not count on that bonus in my calculation)Also, even if the UK takes Cpr on Turn 1, instead of taking a more rich target like Java or Sumatra(not the best UK strategy), that’s 36 IPC’s to spend on Turn 2. So, instead of buying 9 Inf, 1 Art. You’re buying 8 Inf, 2 Arm. In that scenario, that’s 24 Inf, 2 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending against SeaLion. Odds calculator says Germany wins : 67.2% of the time. So in that scenario, you’re only decreasing the odds of Germany winning by : 2.3% (are you going with your 9 - 10 TTs with those odds?). Also by not building 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1, if Germany invades Scotland w/3 Inf 3 Art on Turn 2, then decides NOT to SeaLion, you’ll only have Inf to counter-attack (and all aircraft). My recommendation is UK builds 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1, so as to have the max counter-attack force possible, not only against Scotland but future turns against Germany (as all your aircraft from Gib makes Scotland, there is no need.).
EVEN if the UK has 40 IPC’s to spend(highly unlikely). That’s 3 Arm, 7 Inf on Turn 2. Leaving 23 Inf, 4 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending. Odds calculator says Germany still wins : 56.3% of the time. Now of course, most good Axis players won’t risk SeaLion at this point but my point is, it’s still possible (the point is, you wouldn’t). AND, if the UK player is diverting all of it’s forces(i.e. all airforce) to the defense of the UK, then the Italian player is loving life). If the Axis see this Allied move on Turn 1(i.e. the Brit trans from SZ98, load up 2 French Inf and assuming all German subs die on Turn 1), then of course on Germany’s Turn 2, they don’t build 7 Transports but can still land in Scotland if they want and divert their attention over to Russia, still while threatening SeaLion and keeping the Brits down. Or, just divert all of their attention over to Russia (the question was how to stop Sealion).

A number of posts since I replied.

Commando Brado, why don’t you post your opening moves, and then I can give a more detailed response.

Opening Attacks:

SZ 106
SZ 110
SZ 111
SZ 112
W. France
France
Yugoslavia
Bulgaria
Finland

Just so you know what mine are.

Opening Purchases: 1 Aircraft Carrier, 2 Transpots

Without knowing what you hit those spaces with, there is no way of calculating odds.

I could scramble should the odds be favourable to do damage.

The more I think about Sea-lion, the less likely it should be done. If we are assuming that it is completed in turn three, using 10 transports, you would LITERALLY have less than 10 guys on the Eastern Front. Sea-lion is not worth losing your advantages in the East, Especially if Russia decides to mass on the front line instead of in Novgorod, Belarus, and the Ukraine. Even if you are making an extra 13 IPCs per turn from England (and the 35 or so IPCs England has), you still have to recuperate your ground and air losses. If America decides to drop a few units in the European theater before Sea-lion, you might even lose all of your transports.

The only time I would ever do Sea-lion is when the opportunity arises, perhaps on G2 or far later in the game. However, I think it is absolutely necessarily to prepare Sea-lion, to ensure that the UK doesn’t get a free hand in the Med or in the North Atlantic. It might just be best to pin down the UK with subs and raid the convoys. Essentially make them worthless.

13 IPC’s extra a turn is HUGE! Plus w/the 25 to 35 IPC’s you get from sacking the UK, you can rebuild whatever you want. Also, you can potentially take out a major power. This is the biggest point. And keep it, if the US doesn’t put a major effort into taking it back. This is worth it in my opinion.

@Commando:

13 IPC’s extra a turn is HUGE! Plus w/the 25 to 35 IPC’s you get from sacking the UK, you can rebuild whatever you want. Also, you can potentially take out a major power. This is the biggest point. And keep it, if the US doesn’t put a major effort into taking it back. This is worth it in my opinion.

But even with those IPCs, Once you take England, America is automatically in the war, and since the factory is downgraded to a minor, it makes it very easy to liberate. You are still going to have to get to Moscow, unless you are able to pull off a G2 sea-lion. Plus, with such a small army on the Eastern Front you risk Russia having a formidable attacking force, not just a turtle army.

I’m assuming round 4 take of London, which means America’s already in the war!  THey just havn’t done anything hostile yet.

This allows me to use twice as many ground units as a turn three sea lion.  Which means, more surivors.

@jim010:

Without knowing what you hit those spaces with, there is no way of calculating odds.

I could scramble should the odds be favourable to do damage.

@jim010:

A number of posts since I replied.

Commando Brado, why don’t you post your opening moves, and then I can give a more detailed response.

Ignored yet again.  Typical whenever I try to look into someone’s claims deeper.

I didn’t post specifics because I didn’t want to turn on my netbook.  I still don’t.  I’ll try to go off the cuff a bit:

Builds: Aircraft Carrier, 2 Transports

Naval
SZ 112: Battleship, Cruiser (82% Odds)
SZ 111: Fighter, Tactical, Strategic, 2 Submarines (86% Odds with Scrambled Fighter)
SZ 110: 3 Fighters, 3 Tacticals, 2 Submarines (92.5% Odds, with 3 scrambled fighters)
SZ 106: Submarine (40/40/20% Odds)

Ground
W. France:  3 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter, Tactical (89% Odds)
France: 4 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 4 Mechanized, 5 Armor (99% Odds)
Yugoslavia: 8 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 3 Armor (100% Odds)
Bulgaria: 2 Infantry (100% Odds)
Finland: 2 Infantry (100% Odds)

The only battle that is iffy is the SZ 106 battle, all the rest are 80% or higher odds in favor, even with maximal scrambling.  Meaning, all you are doing by scrambling is letting me kill your fighters earlier and thus, making it easier for me to take London - so, it’s assumed you won’t be scrambling.

As Germany, doesn’t anyone ever take 1 tank and 2 mechs to go attack Southern France, so they can use the factory in the Med? I usually go all out for all French Territories, because they all hold something valuable (France - money, Normandy - UK fighter, S. France - Factory in the med).

Back to the main point…

I still think It is impossible to deal with Russia when you have lost your edge on the Russia border. By the you put enough men on the border, Russia will have massive stacks of infantry and artillery to hit any of your German provinces.

G1 - 1 AC 2 transports (30 IPCs on hand)
G2 - 7-9 transports 5 infantry ( 70 IPCs on hand)
G3 - 5 infantry 5 art 2 tanks (52 Ipcs on hand) or some other ground force combination
G4 - Whatever else you need…

If you start to get “whatever else you need” at G4 the Russians will already out match you on the borders, even IF you build a Major IC in Romania during G3, and be able to attack. With that set back it will take at least another 7 turns to get to Moscow, because by that time America could liberate England and you still need another victory city.

IMO if you don’t pull off sea-lion G2, you won’t have enough time to get deep into Russia and you won’t be able to hold off an America liberation force.

Thank-you.

Note that you used too many tanks, and your aircraft distribution doesn’t work, though.

I see then that 2/3 games I will have that TT in sz106, so the 2 inf, art and tank will typically be in London.

There is an even chance that you will have 1 sb left in either 110 or 111 (in sz111 you are just as likely to survive with 1 sb as no sb).  If so, it should be hit to get the sb bonus for a total of $41 in 1/4 games.

sz112

UK 1

Builds 9 inf save $1

sz106 to sz109
1 TT (load from Que 1 inf, 1 tank to London)

sz109 to sz106
1 TT

Ont to Que
1 inf, 1 art

sz109 to sz104
1 DD

sz98 to sz94
1 DD

sz98 to sz92
1 CA, 1 CV, 1 TT (load from Mal 1 inf, 1 AA to Gib)

sz98 to Gib
1 tac

Mal to Gib
1 fht

Place

London
9 inf

Collect
$36

With this opening, I’ll have 25 inf, 3 tanks, 1 art, 6 fht, 1 tac.  So what will your G2 look like?

sea.AAM

I did not use too many of anything.

You should also assume that the transport in SZ 106 is sunk.  It generally is.  If you prefer, I would be more than happy moving a second submarine over to ensure it is sunk and still have 80% odds in both SZ 110 and SZ 111 easily.  Drop 1 Infantry, 1 Armor from your lineup in England.  Drop the second two ground units as well, that second transport isn’t making landfall either.  Down 4 ground units right there.

So England is down to 20-22 ground units, 4 or 5 planes.  Germany has 40 Ground units, 11 planes, 2 shore bombardments.

@Cmdr:

I did not use too many of anything. (You only have 8 tanks, not 9.  And your plane distribution doesn’t work.)

You should also assume that the transport in SZ 106 is sunk.  It generally is (2 out of 3 games that it is alive and you consider that generally dead?).  If you prefer, I would be more than happy moving a second submarine over to ensure it is sunk and still have 80% odds in both SZ 110 and SZ 111 easily(then I can scramble in 1 of those, and you’ll lose more aircraft than I would).  Drop 1 Infantry, 1 Armor from your lineup in England.  Drop the second two ground units as well, that second transport isn’t making landfall either (prove it).  Down 4 ground units right there.

So England is down to 20-22 ground units, 4 or 5 planes.  Germany has 40 Ground units, 11 planes, 2 shore bombardments.

I gave a response based on likely odds.  Your opening allows for great variation in sz106 and sz112, and maybe in a couple others, but I can’t tell until you fix your plane distribution and the tanks.  I supplied a map with the likely outcomes.  The TT in sz106 IS a likely outcome 60% of the time.
You can show your moves based on those likely outcomes.

And where are you getting 40 ground units G3 with 9 - 10 TTs?

G4, I didn’t say G3.  19 Ground units + 1 AA Gun on G3 to Scotland, 20 Ground units from Europe + 19 Ground units from Scotland = about 40 ground units (39, unless I put a ground unit in scotland instead of the AA Gun) and I have 11 aircraft to start with. (5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 1 Strategic Bomber.  That’s all I sent out, works great!  Do it all the time!  Never run out of pilots!)

Changing SZ 110 to 3 Fighters, 3 Tactical Bombers, ONE Submarine drops it to 80% odds and gives a second submarine for SZ 106.  Either way, that transport is TOAST!  It does not exist!  Churchill is writing letters to the families of those poor sailors who DIED off the coast of Canada!

Yes, you can move one over to SZ 106, so maybe you can get 2 units from Canada over.  Fine.  We’ll say you do.

England R1: 28 IPC
England R2: 33 IPC
England R3: 28 IPC

89 Total IPC to spend.  Roughly 30 Infantry giving you a grand total of:

35 Infantry, 1 Armor, 5 or 6 Fighters, 0 or 1 Tactical Bombers
vs
25 Infantry, 10 Artillery, 5 Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 1 Strategic Bomber

For argument’s sake, I’ll ran the numbers with 6 fighters, 1 tactical bomber present in England and with no defense in Scotland (walkin for Germany).

I have the battle at 99.3% Germany wins after 3.1 rounds of combat with loss of 25 Infantry, 3 Artillery, 1 Fighter, 1 Tactical OR Strategic Bomber (108-109 IPC lost) ~ Aircraft losses due to AA Gun Fire.

England wiped off the map.

Note: Anything left in SZ 110 is cleared by the Vaunted Italian Air Froce, add in 1 Cruiser, 1 Battleship bombardment
Note: Med fleet trapped by Germans prior to Round 2.

@Cmdr:

G4, I didn’t say G3.  19 Ground units + 1 AA Gun on G3 to Scotland, 20 Ground units from Europe + 19 Ground units from Scotland = about 40 ground units (39, unless I put a ground unit in scotland instead of the AA Gun) and I have 11 aircraft to start with. (5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 1 Strategic Bomber.  That’s all I sent out, works great!  Do it all the time!  Never run out of pilots!)

And your aircraft distribution STILL doesn’t work!  AND you still used too many tanks in Europe!

Changing SZ 110 to 3 Fighters, 3 Tactical Bombers, ONE Submarine drops it to 80% odds (75%, actually, if I scramble.  And you lose teh sb and 4 planes, I lose the ships and 3 planes.)and gives a second submarine for SZ 106.  Either way, that transport is TOAST!  It does not exist! (You changed your opening.  Why don’t you give your definitive opening, and THEN we can talk, rather than you changing it when I point out there is a problem.)  Churchill is writing letters to the families of those poor sailors who DIED off the coast of Canada!

Yes, you can move one over to SZ 106, so maybe you can get 2 units from Canada over.  Fine.  We’ll say you do.

England R1: 28 IPC
England R2: 33 IPC ($36)
England R3: 28 IPC

89 Total IPC to spend.  Roughly 30 Infantry giving you a grand total of:

35 Infantry, 1 Armor, 5 or 6 Fighters, 0 or 1 Tactical Bombers
vs
25 Infantry, 10 Artillery, 5 Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 1 Strategic Bomber

For argument’s sake, I’ll ran the numbers with 6 fighters, 1 tactical bomber present in England and with no defense in Scotland (walkin for Germany).

I have the battle at 99.3% Germany wins after 3.1 rounds of combat with loss of 25 Infantry, 3 Artillery, 1 Fighter, 1 Tactical OR Strategic Bomber (108-109 IPC lost) ~ Aircraft losses due to AA Gun Fire.

England wiped off the map.

Note: Anything left in SZ 110 is cleared by the Vaunted Italian Air Froce, add in 1 Cruiser, 1 Battleship bombardment
Note: Med fleet trapped by Germans prior to Round 2. (how?)

I gave a map to follow throught the logical moves based on outcomes determined by odds.  A discussion on the defense of London should be based on this as every detail is important.  We can see what the board should look like and discuss it based on that, accepting odds and the potential variations if they are inportant.  If you don’t want to follow this through, but prefer abstracts, then I won’t bother wasting my time anymore.