The Defense Of Britain

@Commando:

I just did it w/only 10 Transports in a game against a very good opponent. This is after he built all Inf in Round’s 1 and 2 AND brought over 1 Inf, 1 Arm from Canada.

Then he got bad rolls.  You can also bring in 2 French inf from Africa, and all air power.  UK should also be able to buy 1 tank (2 if the sb bonus is achieved) and 9 inf UK 2.

Germany Turn 1 - Builds : 1 AC, 2 Trans
UK Turn 1 - Builds : 4 Inf, 4 Art(max builds)

Germany Turn 2 - Invades Scotland w/3 Inf, 3 Art
UK Turn 2 - Builds : 8 Inf, 2 Art(assuming they have 32 IPC’s, which they should). They bring over 1 Inf, 1 Arm from Canada. Most likely the DD & Trans in SZ106 are dead. So that leaves 1 Trans from SZ109 to bring over the 1 Inf, 1 Arm from Canada. Assuming they bring up 2 more French Inf from Africa. And all their aircraft(6 FTr’s, including the French + 1 Tac). That’s 19 Inf, 6 Art, 1 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac + 1 AA defending.

Germany Turn 3 - Attacks UK w/13 Inf, 5 Art, 8 Arm, 5 FTR’s, 5 Tacs, 1 S. Bmbr, 1 BB + 1 CC shore bombard.

Odds calculator says Germany wins : 69.5% of the time. Ran scenario 10,000 times.

How does Germany not win?

Let’s play it out then.

Give me your opening moves and post a map.

UK can buy 9 inf save $1.  That’s 1 more at 2.

and you’ll only get that sz106 TT 33%.

UK can take Cpr turn 1 - $2 more.  Total is now $35.  Potentially $40 with sb bonus.

I have 24 inf inf, 1 art, 2 tanks, 6 fht, 1 tac vs 10 inf, 10 tanks, 5 fht, 5 tac, 1 bmb, 2 amphibs. (assuming I hit Scotland UK2 with 2 inf, 6 fht, 1 tac and lost 2 inf and 1 plane)

I have you at 34%.  Run 10 000 times.

You’d take those odds?

I typed it in wrong.  Here are the new numbers based on you having 10 TTs.  Much worse with only 9.

Run your numbers again, using the following data:

SZ 106 cleared
SZ 110 Cleared
SZ 111 Cleared
SZ 112 cleared
France taken
Normandy/W. France taken (so you have none of those units to reinforce England with.)

This is how England should normally look.  THat should remove 2 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor, 1 Fighter from your setup in England making a HUGE difference in your numbers!

Not many games does Germany lose ALL it’s subs on Turn 1. Also, even if the UK takes Cpr on Turn 1, instead of taking a more rich target like Java or Sumatra(not the best UK strategy), that’s 36 IPC’s to spend on Turn 2. So, instead of buying 9 Inf, 1 Art. You’re buying 8 Inf, 2 Arm. In that scenario, that’s 24 Inf, 2 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending against SeaLion. Odds calculator says Germany wins : 67.2% of the time. So in that scenario, you’re only decreasing the odds of Germany winning by : 2.3%. Also by not building 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1, if Germany invades Scotland w/3 Inf 3 Art on Turn 2, then decides NOT to SeaLion, you’ll only have Inf to counter-attack. My recommendation is UK builds 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1, so as to have the max counter-attack force possible, not only against Scotland but future turns against Germany.

EVEN if the UK has 40 IPC’s to spend(highly unlikely). That’s 3 Arm, 7 Inf on Turn 2. Leaving 23 Inf, 4 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending. Odds calculator says Germany still wins : 56.3% of the time. Now of course, most good Axis players won’t risk SeaLion at this point but my point is, it’s still possible. AND, if the UK player is diverting all of it’s forces(i.e. all airforce) to the defense of the UK, then the Italian player is loving life). If the Axis see this Allied move on Turn 1(i.e. the Brit trans from SZ98, load up 2 French Inf and assuming all German subs die on Turn 1), then of course on Germany’s Turn 2, they don’t build 7 Transports but can still land in Scotland if they want and divert their attention over to Russia, still while threatening SeaLion and keeping the Brits down. Or, just divert all of their attention over to Russia.

I don’t really see 6 fighters, 1 tactical bomber for English defense.

2 in England
1 in Scotland
1 in Gibraltar
1 Fr. Fighter

You’ll be down at least two aircraft from SZ 97, so I’ll assume the Maltese and SZ 98 aircraft.

Ok, first of all if you attack Scotland w/2 Inf, you’re down 2 Inf. You start w/7 Inf(1 in Canada, 1 in Scotland, 3 in the UK(one French) + 2 Frenchies in Africa. That’s 7. You build 9 Inf on Turn 1, save 1 IPC. That’s 16 Inf on Turn 1. Assuming you take Cpr on Turn 1, you would have 36 to build on Turn 2. Turn 2 you build 8 Inf, 2 Arm. That’s 24 Inf, 3 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending. BUT, if like you said, you attack Scotland w/2 Inf. That’s only 22 Inf defending, not 24.

And you only have 5 FTR’s, 1 Tac to attack Scotland, not 6 FTR’s. Remember one is French. AND, that’s assuming you get avg dicing in Scotland. That’s an awfully BIG risk if I get good dicing and you get bad dicing. I’ve seen this happen before. IMHO, it’s better to defend than risk losing precious FTR’s in that battle.

He’s assuming 1 FTR in Sco, 3 FTR’s in UK(one French), 1 FTR from Gib, 1 FTR from Mal, 1 Tac from SZ98.

He wouldn’t be attacking SZ97 in this scenario. Like I said, great for the Italians.

Well, I’m all confused because on the one hand everyone is stipulating that the Italian fleet is decimated by England and then all these aircraft are magically appearing in England again.  =/

Here’s how I see it:  14 Ground units in Scotland on G3.  28 Ground Units, 11 Aircraft in England on G4.  Perhaps more if England turtles since I’d get more transports to handle the influx so I could have up to 40 ground units and 11 aircraft in England on G4 if needed.

Now, if England is ignoring the Italians, why are the Italians not making the British pay for that?

We’re talking about not doing Taranto but trying to prevent SeaLion from happening. And yes of course, if the Brits don’t Taranto, then the Italians would make them pay.

@Commando:

Not many games does Germany lose ALL it’s subs on Turn 1. (I did not count on that bonus in my calculation)Also, even if the UK takes Cpr on Turn 1, instead of taking a more rich target like Java or Sumatra(not the best UK strategy), that’s 36 IPC’s to spend on Turn 2. So, instead of buying 9 Inf, 1 Art. You’re buying 8 Inf, 2 Arm. In that scenario, that’s 24 Inf, 2 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending against SeaLion. Odds calculator says Germany wins : 67.2% of the time. So in that scenario, you’re only decreasing the odds of Germany winning by : 2.3% (are you going with your 9 - 10 TTs with those odds?). Also by not building 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1, if Germany invades Scotland w/3 Inf 3 Art on Turn 2, then decides NOT to SeaLion, you’ll only have Inf to counter-attack (and all aircraft). My recommendation is UK builds 4 Inf, 4 Art on Turn 1, so as to have the max counter-attack force possible, not only against Scotland but future turns against Germany (as all your aircraft from Gib makes Scotland, there is no need.).
EVEN if the UK has 40 IPC’s to spend(highly unlikely). That’s 3 Arm, 7 Inf on Turn 2. Leaving 23 Inf, 4 Arm, 6 FTR’s, 1 Tac defending. Odds calculator says Germany still wins : 56.3% of the time. Now of course, most good Axis players won’t risk SeaLion at this point but my point is, it’s still possible (the point is, you wouldn’t). AND, if the UK player is diverting all of it’s forces(i.e. all airforce) to the defense of the UK, then the Italian player is loving life). If the Axis see this Allied move on Turn 1(i.e. the Brit trans from SZ98, load up 2 French Inf and assuming all German subs die on Turn 1), then of course on Germany’s Turn 2, they don’t build 7 Transports but can still land in Scotland if they want and divert their attention over to Russia, still while threatening SeaLion and keeping the Brits down. Or, just divert all of their attention over to Russia (the question was how to stop Sealion).

A number of posts since I replied.

Commando Brado, why don’t you post your opening moves, and then I can give a more detailed response.

Opening Attacks:

SZ 106
SZ 110
SZ 111
SZ 112
W. France
France
Yugoslavia
Bulgaria
Finland

Just so you know what mine are.

Opening Purchases: 1 Aircraft Carrier, 2 Transpots

Without knowing what you hit those spaces with, there is no way of calculating odds.

I could scramble should the odds be favourable to do damage.

The more I think about Sea-lion, the less likely it should be done. If we are assuming that it is completed in turn three, using 10 transports, you would LITERALLY have less than 10 guys on the Eastern Front. Sea-lion is not worth losing your advantages in the East, Especially if Russia decides to mass on the front line instead of in Novgorod, Belarus, and the Ukraine. Even if you are making an extra 13 IPCs per turn from England (and the 35 or so IPCs England has), you still have to recuperate your ground and air losses. If America decides to drop a few units in the European theater before Sea-lion, you might even lose all of your transports.

The only time I would ever do Sea-lion is when the opportunity arises, perhaps on G2 or far later in the game. However, I think it is absolutely necessarily to prepare Sea-lion, to ensure that the UK doesn’t get a free hand in the Med or in the North Atlantic. It might just be best to pin down the UK with subs and raid the convoys. Essentially make them worthless.

13 IPC’s extra a turn is HUGE! Plus w/the 25 to 35 IPC’s you get from sacking the UK, you can rebuild whatever you want. Also, you can potentially take out a major power. This is the biggest point. And keep it, if the US doesn’t put a major effort into taking it back. This is worth it in my opinion.

@Commando:

13 IPC’s extra a turn is HUGE! Plus w/the 25 to 35 IPC’s you get from sacking the UK, you can rebuild whatever you want. Also, you can potentially take out a major power. This is the biggest point. And keep it, if the US doesn’t put a major effort into taking it back. This is worth it in my opinion.

But even with those IPCs, Once you take England, America is automatically in the war, and since the factory is downgraded to a minor, it makes it very easy to liberate. You are still going to have to get to Moscow, unless you are able to pull off a G2 sea-lion. Plus, with such a small army on the Eastern Front you risk Russia having a formidable attacking force, not just a turtle army.