no one is claiming 100% win chance with any strategy. For the simple reason that good dice beat good strategy every day of the week and twice on any day ending in y!
However, all things being equal, America + India + China + Australia will beat Japan before round 10 in just about every game. By that I mean:
Identical levels of skill for both players
Dice that come out at the median/mean result every time they are thrown
No mistakes are made on the game board.
Since you cannot force that to happen no matter how you set it up, there will always be error in the test. The trick is to minimize the error, but no matter what happens, there WILL be error. For instance, in ADS games, the dice will almost never come up at the median and mean result in any throw of the dice, let alone every throw of the dice. Unless you pull a Jim Carry, there cannot possibly be equal levels of knowledge between any two players and that means, there will almost certainly be mistakes made. (Attacking Novgorod without remembering that all Russia has to do is scramble a fighter to sink your 10 transports; forgetting to block an attack with a destroyer and losing your fleet; etc.)
As for not impinging on strategy A without leaving strategy C to be abused, the only real solution to this was my solution of requiring America to spend what they earn on each side of the board. THere was never a limitation that they could not then move it to the other side, just like there is no limitation that England or India could not move units from board to board. However, it WOULD force America to delay moving units into one side or the other by at least a round, sometimes two rounds. That gives Japan breathing room against an “all in” allied strategy, maybe enough room that Germany can manage to capture the last victory city they need before America comes pummelling in with carpet bombers and walls of meat (infantry) to stop them.
Keep in mind, the allies CANNOT win with victory cities. Therefore, the allies don’t care what victory cities they have or dont have, as long as they stop the axis from getting enough to win. That is surprisingly easy.
Downgrading the number of VCs they need to win just makes it too easy for them to win.
Now, giving the allies a target number to win, that may be an option. Probably not, not without adding more VCs to the game which would require a reprint of the map and you just KNOW that Wizards of the Coast is going to nix that idea! It’ll cost them money, they won’t do it.
Another idea, if Japan is limited to 20 IPC or less, the German war machine goes in hyper-drive, German factories can produce more units, thus Germany gets + 10 IPC and italy gets +3 IPC. That would encourage the allies to contain both Japan and Germany at about equal levels. Likewise, if Germany is limited to 20 IPC or less, Japan gets + 10 IPC NO.