@bugoo:
Um, i can think of a few reasons not to ignore Japan.
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-14 US IPCs a turn from convoy raiding
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Egypt falling to Japan around turn 5
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Stalingrad falling to Japan around the same time
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20+ Jap planes in Europe around the same time
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10+ Japan units from India pouring into Europe
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20-30 Japan units landing in Alaska each turn.
Japan won’t be easy to use in a relevant way at first, but give everyone some time and i’m sure they will become scary.
Bugoo’s a damn good player, and I don’t see any of his points as being improbable. I think those are the types of things you’d be dealing with if you ignored Japan.
However, you’re asking if KJF’s will go extinct, not whether KEF (Europe) is a good idea or not. Those are two different things.
Well, consider:
What if Japan does not attack Allies not named Soviet Union or China on turn 1? And what if the UK and ANZAC make effective attacks on Japan, possibly even sinking fleet and a lot of airplanes, left available by Japan to bait an attack? (So the USA can’t enter the war until turn 4) Anyway, I’d say that when Japan forgoes a J1 attack, it may be more feasible for the USA to bear down on Japan and take her out of the game (not necessarily take the home island). Of course, this is feasible if the UK and USSR are handling Germany and Italy sufficiently. Then I still see KJF happening sometimes.
With as many possible scenarios as there are in 1940, what with all the political situations and options of the Axis, I wouldn’t rule much of anything out. That includes a hard concentration on Japan.
Keep in mind the USA went KGF first in real life because the free world (democracies of Western Civilization) were in danger of extinction. The only foreseeable threat of Japan to the free world, was that they were working together with common enemies with Germany and Italy, and that they could possibly invade the US (highly unlikely). Jeez, a lot of Japanese high command didn’t even want to attack Pearl Harbor, but they did it because they thought if they didn’t, there’d be no way they could ever keep their Pacific gains, because the USA would come get 'em (they were right). Of course, several in command didn’t want to attack the USA in the hopes that USA would just leave them alone.
Anyway, USA would have went KJF IRL if the UK (and ultimately France) wasn’t on the brink of extinction. IRL USA had 2 very high priorities. #1, preserve the free world, and #2, preserve the safety of the homeland.
USA agreed to go after Germany and Italy until they were taken care of, and then concentrate on Japan after that, because apparently they weren’t as worried about priority #2. Because the threat level of Japan actually invading was assessed at LOW. Probability of Germany dominating all of Europe (and then attacking USA in different ways, including a potential nuclear bomb) - higher.
So my point is, I think it will make sense in various situations to go deal with Japan with >50 or >70% of USA income turn after turn (I think it would be fair to call that KJF).