OK, last night with limited time I mocked up round 1. I did indeed end up with a board looking much like Nix’s heading into SU2, except I may have made a mistake by leaving 3inf in Belo, because E.Eur has only 4inf. Egypt went so well the Germans lost only 1inf, so there’s 1inf 2arm there plus 1inf 1art 1F in Libya. Africa will fall quickly. I like to park the bomber back in Germany.
Depending on how many Russian fighters there are and the Allied Atlantic fleet situation, I may choose to leave anywhere from 0 to 3 infantry in a territory. You leave 0 infantry if you want Russia to blitz the territory. (You can blitz right back). Usually, though, you want to leave at least 1 infantry in a territory to force Russia to commit forces to recapturing the territory.
Here are the problem areas: after SU2 the Russians hold: W.Rus 6inf, 2art, 4arm, 2F(UK) amd Cauc 5inf, 1art, 2F, Ukraine 6inf, Belo 2inf, plus 5inf reserve in Russia and 2inf in Kaz, so their lines are not exactly paper thin. That means SU has 24inf 3art 4arm 2F + 2F(UK) on or near the front, whereas the Germans have 14inf 1art 5 arm 2F(AC) between E.Eur/Ger/Balk/SZ5. (5 extra inf or 3arm instead of the AC would come in handy.) UK1 I lost 4 IPCs to sbr, so 38 IPCs to 28 for SU is not a huge lead; even with extra IPCs, it will take several turns to match the numbers of the SU, let alone gain the advantage. US2 threatens sbr as well.
What is “SU2”? 6 inf in Ukraine really doesn’t sound right for the start of Germany’s first turn. So Germany would have had time to counter that Russian turn.
The navy looks great in SZ5 with 1AC 2sub 1DD 1tr, and that will let me funnel 2 extra ground units per turn into Karel, so I see the benefit there. However, after R2 SZ8 has: UK 1BB 3tr 1AC w/ US 2F, US 2tr 1DD, SU 1sub. Even with 3F in W.Eur and 1bom, I would be hard-pressed to attack that on G2 – Allies can give up 1DD 1sub 1 hit on BB before I kill anything meaningful, whereas I would probably lose several F. By the time I would move out of SZ5 within range of SZ8, I assume the Allies will have even more strength. I guess the point is to stall the Allies’ navies, at least temporarily, to buy time for Japan, but I will probably lose airpower I cannot afford to replace.
Yeah, the Baltic carrier is for stalling. Basically, you sit on the Baltic fleet. If a small Allied fleet gets in range, you kick its ass with the mighty Luftwaffe. If a big Allied fleet gets in range, you kick its ass with the Luftwaffe AND the German navy. (You lose the German navy to the Allied air attack on the Allied turn, though). Of course, the Allies might just build this gigantic air force and kick the Baltic navy’s ass. That’s always a potential problem. Not much you can do about it though.
US2 could land in Africa or Norway, with a second wave already waiting in E.US. UK2 threatens Norway with 4inf 1art 1arm, so if I take Karel in force I’ll be surrounded. Not to mention W.Eur may need reinforcements. As far as the argument I’ve heard that UK must worry about the Kreigsmarine, I wonder why; UK will build at least 4inf 1art 1arm each turn anyway for its transports and the US may park its units there as a staging ground, so I see no actual threat of SeaLion. Add to that the 8IPC fewer ground units for each transport Germany would build, and SU only grows stronger.
Sure, US can land early in Africa/Norway, but that’s just the way it goes. If US commits its transports that early to Norway, though, you should be able to decimate the transports with Luftwaffe or Luftwaffe/navy. If the US goes to Africa, possibly the same thing. Remember, fighters should be based at Western Europe, or possibly, Norway.
Being surrounded at Karelia is not a problem. The Allies usually do not build a mighty ATTACK force at Norway, they are usually just concerned with holding Norway. Which means, basically - if they built a load of infantry, likely, then they can attack with their loads of infantry, but you should still be able to win because of reinforcements from Eastern Europe. If the Allies built tanks, they won’t have a lot of numbers early, plus you can counter their attack on your turn and kill their expensive Allied tanks at minimal cost (paid in German infantry). If the Allies built infantry and tanks and fighters, well, it’s not like that happens overnight. Germany has plenty of time to respond.
SeaLion is not really “rawr, Imma eat London!” It’s really more like “rawr, Imma eat London, or maybe whatever Allied fleet you have around London! Also Imma eat Karelia as a snack. Also other rawrish things!” You say that London will produce 4 inf 1 art 1 tank a turn (I disagree, I would far rather go pure infantry most of the time), but really, if London is saving all that up, then what is happening on the rest of the board? London is NOT sending those units to Europe (if London is depleted, Germany goes RAWR), London has to build a defensive fleet for those transports (or else the German fleet and Luftwaffe can go RAWR), etc. etc.
Which is not to say that I think SeaLion is a solid game plan, but I do think that SeaLion is a solid COUNTERTHREAT to some Allied moves.
I understand this plan requires an aggressive Japan to move against SU. Unfortunately, UK sunk the Kwang transport and the SZ45 sub and holds India with 4inf 1F. Of course J1 took China and sunk the US at Pearl, but only 2 ground units could then be moved onto Asia during NC. It will take time for Japan to mount a sizable threat from the east.
Japan’s first turn, you build 3 transports and 1 tank. Always. Because I am a gen1us! No, seriously, here’s why. First, you can’t build four transports, you only have IPCs for three. So you build three. And you build a tank, because tanks are very flexible and threatening and blitzy and cool stuff, plus you can already fill your tranports with Jap infantry and stuff. You don’t really need another artillery or another two infantry. Use those Jap transports to pull infantry off the islands. Now what happens? If the Allies decide to go KJF, you have naval fodder (transports). If the Allies decide to go KGF, you can build an industrial complex in French Indochina, and use those transports to pull infantry off the islands / take Australia, New Guinea, New Zealand, support Africa, etc. I usually end up with an absolute minimum of 5 transports with Japan. Often 7.
I think I see why I need to learn about the bid system! :-D
Yes, my young Padawan.