@MeinHerr:
With NO Taranto… ie: You leave the Italian Navy in SZ 97 Alive… you can fly the TB ( from CV) and Malta FTR and use the TR to get 1 ART and 1 Inf from Malta…
Even with all that… with a 2 SBR buy, using 4 FTR, 5 TB and 4 SBR , its a 100% win - with low luck
Defenders are : 1 AAA, 7 Inf , 2 Art , 1 Mech, 1 Tank , 1 TB and 1 FTR
So you are assuming that A) the UK moves in no extra units for defense and B) that it built the factory in Egypt UK1 but does not place units at that factory on UK2?
In as friendly a way as possible, you’re being incredibly optimistic.
If you add the 2 tanks, 3 fighters, and additional tac to the defense (assuming two tanks and a fighter is the build, that the Gibraltar fighter arrives, and that the fighter and tactical bomber from India arrive) after losing the infantry on a one round strafe, your chance of successfully taking the territory seems to be around 35% and that assumes that the UK AA gun does not get a hit. If it does, your chance of success goes down to 18%. If the UK was able to two bring more infantry in from anywhere, your chances without the AA hit are 10%-ish.
That’s hardly the surefire Axis victory you have been boasting of. So you must be thinking of going full tilt on Egypt.
If the Luftwaffe engages in battle til it or the defender is dead, then it looks like on average you will wipe out the defenses or leave only a fighter (and maybe a tactical bomber) in defense. At that point there is nothing the UK can do to save Egypt, but of course you’ve destroyed the Luftwaffe.
You still have the Italian air force, but the UK still has a strong navy and strong air force. If the UK did it right on UK1 it also has forces in the Middle East from activating Persia. Since there is nothing it can do to save Egypt, at that point that UK should:
1. Kill Iraq to prevent an Italian payout of free infantry should the Italians make it that far
2. Place a strong build in South Africa to keep pressure on Egypt
3. Build a MIC in Persia (if Persia was activated UK1). Since Sea Lion is definitely off the table, there is nothing stopping the UK from spending all its money in Africa and the Middle East at this point
4. Destroy any remaining Italian navy
5. Begin convoy disruption in sea zone 97. It is imperative that Italy not be able to cash out big
The UK still has an MIC in South Africa – Italy will need to keep that in check, leaving very little to deal with any UK forces in the Middle East. If you split your force to contain South Africa and also head into the Middle East, the UK already outnumbers you in the Middle East (again, assuming Persia was activated UK1).
If the UK builds the MIC in Persia, Italy will be outproduced 2-1 in units. By the time you get your Egypt force to Persia, you will not outnumber the UK forces (figure 3-4 aircraft, two full builds at the Persia MIC, remaining ground forces from the Iraq conquest [shall we say 2 units to be conservative?], perhaps a load of troops shipped in from South Africa, and probably a little Russian help [Russia can spare it because you have no air force!]). You and the UK will trade Iraq a time or two, but you will never break through to the entire Middle East.
Suppose you take Iraq in force on I4 with five infantry, 1 mech, 2 artillery, and five tanks (assuming you could put together 18 IPCs for a 3 tank build in Egypt, which is highly unlikely due to convoy disruption). Your planes can’t land in Iraq right now.
UK by now has stacked: 1 infantry, 1 artillery, 6 tanks, 2 fighters, 2 tactical bombers, and probably a Russian fighter to augment its defense. The UK goes first, and if they attack you on UK5 it’s 55% (unless units from South Africa participate via amphibious assault – adding another infantry and tank and bringing in a strat bomber, gets the UK attack to 95%). So, you can’t move into Iraq in force. So you grab it light to cash out, and then the UK takes it back. You probably do this a time or two.
(Keep in mind that this estimate of your Iraq force means you’ve brought your entire stack into the Middle East, counting on units produced in Egypt holding off the South African factory.) That can go any number of ways, but basically this boils down to you need every unit you have holding off the UK forces from Persia, which leaves Egypt vulnerable to South Africa builds. There are no reinforcements from Italy, because the UK owns the Med (see below) and you have no transports anyway.
Some magic might happen if Japan is pressuring India – since planes from Persia can make India in a single move, you might gain the upper hand if all those Persian planes go to India to hold off Japan.
The real magic, however, would be you holding Egypt past UK6 – with convoy disruption happening, Italy just doesn’t have the income to compete with the UK. If UK is building one transport, one infantry, one artillery in South Africa each round from UK2 on, Italy cannot hold Egypt and fight for the Middle East because those transports can hit Egypt or Iraq or reinforce Persia. (If Italy splits its forces to try to hold multiple areas, it won’t do either job.) Even if Italy holds off the UK, the slightest push from the US will force it out of Egypt.
Back to Italy’s income – the UK owns the Med (1 BB, 2 or 3 CCs, 1 AC with a couple of planes, 2-3 DDs) and Italy’s income will get massive convoy disruptions in sea zone 97, limiting income to 10-14 IPCs per round even with some Middle East income. You won’t even be able to build at your two minor ICs completely, which means that in defense of doomed Egypt you will sacrifice European defenses.
You traded on average over 100 German IPCs (all the fighters and tac bombers and a strat bomber) for 59 UK IPCs (mostly ground units).
Results:
1. Russia does the happy dance. There is no possibility of Germany taking Moscow until at least turn 10 or 11. Depending on how Russia builds, it might even be longer. Those two bombers you built G1 would be desperately helpful on the Eastern Front as infantry or artillery.
2. The US can come light in the Atlantic because the Luftwaffe is not a threat.
3. Italy will either lose Egypt to the UK again or leave Europe very lightly defended. Can opening for Germany is pretty much out.
4. Italy cannot break through and own the Middle East and also keep Egypt. Doing even one of those things will be difficult.
So yeah, if you shoot Germany’s foot off by destroying the Luftwaffe, Italy can take Egypt and swap Iraq a couple of times. Woohoo. Italy will have game but it’s hardly the stellar Axis breakthrough you are promising unless the UK does dumb things or you get really good rolls consistently.
Oh, and the US does not need to worry about liberating Paris. Rome will be easy, because Italy has been spending its income in Egypt. Also, the US will not have to hold Norway too strongly, because Germany will be unable to recapture it. The US might need to do a slight push against Egypt, but probably not.
Marsh
