Russia, round 1!

[Jennifer]

Okay, for arguement’s sake we’ll say Germany has a bid of 6 IPCs and that’s 2 infantry in either Belorussia or Libya.

Russia:

3 Infantry, 1 Armor, 2 Fighter to Eastern Europe (2 Infantry, 1 Armor, 1 Fighter defending) 83% Attacker Victory (10,000 rolls on Frood.net)
*  3 Infantry, 1 Fighter from Karelia
*  1 Armor from Archangelsk
*  1 Fighter from Russia

3 Infantry, 3 Armor, 1 Artillery to Ukraine (3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor, 1 Fighter defending) 64% Attacker Victory (10,000 rolls on Frood.net)
*  3 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 1 Armor from Caucasus
*  2 Armor from Russia

Non-Combat:

3 Infantry from Archangelsk to Karelia
3 Infantry from Russia to Archangelsk
2 Infantry from Evenki National Okrug to Russia
2 Infantry from Novosibirsk to Russia
2 Infantry from Kazahk SSR to Caucasus
2 Infantry from Yakut SSR to Burytia SSR
2 Infantry from Soviet Far East to Burytia SSR
1 Fighter to Karelia
1 Fighter to Caucasus

Unit Placements:

4 Infantry in Caucasus
4 Infantry in Russia

Is this too much of a risk to kill off 33% of the German air force before it can consolidate?  You’ll loose 50% of the Russian air force on Germany’s counter attack, but England can then land in Finland Norway and start a shuffle while America can come to support either Africa or Northern Europe.

Okay, let the flames fly!

[Aretaku]

…not sure what to think, although I dislike the idea of risking so much Russian armor so early.

Neither Eastern nor Ukraine is likely to be held by more than one or two ground units…basically, whatever tanks Germany doesn’t manage to kill. You could retreat, but if the goal is to kill German aircraft, then you quite clearly have to take both territories.

Belo and Trannied German stuff to Eastern…Balkans and W.Russia to Ukraine…fig support possible in both places…BB shot in Ukraine if they really feel like it (though who skips Egypt?)

Heck…attack Karelia too, since Eastern probably doesn’t have much left.

That gives Germany a nice front of Karelia, Belo and Ukraine…it’s all lightly held, most likely, but without Armor, Russia won’t be doing much on R2.

To me, the “standard” G1 of 1 AC (or 2 Tran) and 8 inf is still optimal…basically all that Russia did was trade 4 tanks for 2 fighters. Sure other stuff is dead, but Russia’s offense comes to a dead halt, and Germany has some nice opportunities for economic expansion…especially if either of the Russian attacks failed.

If I were playing as Germany, and had this done to me, I would probably be happier than a lot of other Russian possibilities. I might be down two fighters, but Russia won’t be a problem for quite a while.

[trihero]

Your numbers should be slightly higher if your goal is precisely to kill the German fighter in each territory, and not to lose more than 1 fighter. For instance, it doesn’t matter if your one fighter dies in the E. Europe attack or in the counterattack, so might as well chance it in the attack to raise your attack % slightly. The numbers you use are more indicative of if you want to take the territory with a land unit. Since that is not the goal, we can adjust slightly:

Then we get the E. Europe battle is 85%, and the Ukraine battle is 68%. The composite chance is 57.8%.

So the chances of everything going according to plan (both German fighters dead, no more than 1 Russian fighter dead) is 57.8% Better than a coin toss, but not by much. This is not to say whether I agree or disagree with the attack. Numerically you should come out ahead in the long run if you feel that killing both fighters guarantees you success.

Also, you left out what happens to the artillery starting in Russia. Does it stay there, or move to Archangel with 3 inf?

I am concerned that this attack would leave Russia somewhat hollowed out. Belorussia and West Russia remain standing with the Germans, and I would probably use those forces to eat up Karelia and Archangel. Russia has zero tanks, 1 artillery, and 1 fighter, 6 infantry Caucasus and 8 infantry in Moscow at the start of Round 2. It’ll be ugly as hell to try to trade with the Germans on such low offense.

The UK can certainly be in to help out, but will be delayed if there is a naval purchase of 1 carrier or the like. It’ll still take the UK till round 3 or so to be able to land in force, and by that time I fear the Germans have strong control of Ukraine, Belo, and Karelia. Russia will be dwindling in cash pretty early on with the Japanese eating from the East and Germany strongly holding in the West, and a couple of bombings from both Axis will reduce Russia into the mid teens for income soon enough.

[Amon-Sul]

very interesting

the two previous replys were against these

but its a radical strategy,  personally i like radical strategies

but these can give a serious punch to German defense against Allied Navy but also can give a big boost to Germany`s expanding in the East

-two sides of the same coin
its a sacrifice, but if it can bring some benefits to your Allies with which they can strike Germany more easily and brig Germany serious losses,  than i say it worths the losses of Russian fighter and armor

[Aretaku]

@Amon-Sul:

than i say it worths the losses of Russian fighter and armor

I fail to see why it’s worth it. By the end of G1, Russia will likely only have 1 ART and 1 FIG left as offensive pieces. Sure, Germany is down two fighters, but the loss of German ground units is little different from a more “typical” Russian first turn.

I see little that changes for the US and UK, other than the fact that the Russians need aid even sooner than normal, especially if Japan knows his buisness. Germany moves two figs to the carrier, stations the others in Western, and waits till his economy builds up a little and replaces the figs he lost around G3 or G4, right around when they’ll be most needed as the US/UK logistical train is fully established.

All that’s needed is a little emphasis on armor on G2 to compensate for the lack of FIGS on the Eastern Front.

If Russia does this, America HAS to help, so Japan already knows he has free reign in Asia. He might even go heavy in Bury if Britain doesn’t kill the Kwang tranny.

I predict disaster for this strategy… :|

[Guest]

It would probably move the German player to do some things differently in the west… so that FIGs can be used elsewhere to eliminate the Russian threat, pretty much permanently.

Eastern gets liberated, can;t prevent that.
Ukraine is liberated, how heavy depends on what Germany does with Belo and West Russia forces.

As noted above, you have less than 6 in 10 odds of winning both, not my favorite odds to go into battle with.

And while you are pulling out all the stops, and losing a Russian FIG, to kill an extra German FIG, you are also leaving Germany with an extra INF and ART over the more common West Russia open.  That makes your net unit gain against Germany only $3 IPC, and does not factor in the additional Russian losses on R1 and G1.

From a value and number of units standpoint, this move is sub-optimal.

The real question with a move like this is…
by killing the extra FIG on R1, and sacrificing those extra Russian units, what are you planning as UK and USA in the rest of Turn 1 to take advantage of the change in German Air superiority?  If nothing, then the move is probably a bad idea since you lose so much to kill an extra FIG, and then do not take advantage of that loss.

And here is the final kicker…
On G1, German can attack Moscow (8 INF, 1 AA) with:
3 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM West Russia
1 FIG Norway (land in West Russia)
1 FIG Balkans (land in West Russia)
1 BOM Germany

And the odds on that battle are:
59% win for Germany
37% to occupy.

[trihero]

No, Moscow is probably better defended than that. It’s 8 inf 1 fighter 1 aa, not just 8 inf, and probably Jen would keep an extra 1 inf or 1 art in Moscow to compensate for any luck.

I really don’t like that noncombat moves; it leaves Russian infantry exposed all over the place in Archangel and Karelia.

[Amon-Sul]

ok
i just want to say that these play has its bad and good sides

you shouldnt just throw it away in the beginning

[frimmel]

Okay so Moscow is a little better defended than in Jennifer’s original post but G will now be stacked huge in UKR with All of the WRU troops and half the Belo INF (2 or 3) and the Balkans stuff coming down on it. That still leaves a ton of stuff to hit EE with. Also you could hit Kar with all of the NOR units. Might just try to hold in EE and push hard on CAU. Especially if the bid 2 INF went to BELO.

Also I think that while you wouldn’t skip EGY G1 I think an evac of the Africa corp (the Libya INF and ART from ALG) to UKR on G2 might be in order in this scenario assuming a succesful EGY retake by UK. Cau falls quick in this plan. Skip the first turn AC. Get 2 TRNs for the MED and come down hard on the CAU on G2. Hold in EE.

Turn 1 Attack KAR from NOR and GER. EE from GER and Balkans. UKR from WRU and BELO. EGY and UK BB, and DD after buying 2 TRNs and some INF and ARM? Hit UKR with everything that reaches. EE with whatever is left. Build in SEU.

Turn 2 Hit CAU although that stack will probably be 16 INF pretty quick vs ?. I don’t have a board on this computer to sort that out. Don’t have the skills to do it in my head. Bears some thought though. Well in case someone actualy trys this against you as the Axis.

[Guest]

@trihero:

No, Moscow is probably better defended than that. It’s 8 inf 1 fighter 1 aa, not just 8 inf, and probably Jen would keep an extra 1 inf or 1 art in Moscow to compensate for any luck.

I really don’t like that noncombat moves; it leaves Russian infantry exposed all over the place in Archangel and Karelia.

I agree, there is a better NCM series if you are going to try this.  But my reply was based on her posted move.

[Jennifer]

What if you changed it up?  By attacking Finland/Norway instead you have to deal with the same number of units, but one of them isn’t a tank anymore so you can save a fighter that won’t die from counter attack.

You are still crushing 33% of Germany’s available fighters (which helps secure the British/American fleets and makes landings in Europe ever so much easier - still hard, but much easier)

You could also hit W. Russia with forces to knock out some infantry and consolidate.  I admit that this move will result in the loss of Karelia and Archangelsk at least, but that’s temporary.

Russia will build infantry on R1, but can build some tanks on R2 to resupply.  Or maybe go 3 Art, 4 Inf on both rounds so there’s some offense again. (Though, fighter cover is usually the best option for territory trading in Europe.)

[Amon-Sul]

yes i think that Russia in these play should definitely attack West Russia-maybe retreat if necessarily
because the average chances are that Eastern Europe will be taken if you send there only one fighter; you will have to sacrifice a fighter to capture the territory with a tank, but if you send two fighters there one has to land in Karelia(it is doomed there)
-West Russia can be attacked with 6 inf 1 art 1 fig; average chances are that it will be taken with 2 inf 1 art and there is a fighter also
-Ukraine can be attacked with 3 inf 1 art 3 tanks; average chances are that Ukraine will be taken with 2 tanks
-so the odds for all the battles are definitely in Russia´s favour; the battle in Eastern Europe is a bit hard, but Russia can make it

this is the situation in Russian lands:
Karelia and Archangel are empty
West Russia is defended by 2 inf, 1art, 1AA
UKraine is defended by 2 tanks
Russia is defended by 8 inf
Caucaus is defended by 6 inf, 1fig, 1AA

Russia has lost;10 inf, 1 art, 1 ten, 1fig(units that worth 49 IPC)
Germany has lost;9 inf, 2 art, 3 tanks 2 fig(units that worth 70 IPC)
Germany faces the loss of two fighters and it will loose either a sub or a fighter when fighting the UK bat

Russia has collected 32 IPC; so it can buy 10 infantry in round 2

…Germany can take:Karelia with 5 inf;Eastern Europe with 2 tanks; Ukraine with 3 tanks and one inf(one takes the hit from the two Russian tanks); West Russia with one inf(because of the two hits from the Russian defence)-and there is still 1/3 chance that Germany will loose another figher-bbecauseWest Russia cannot be taken without air support
(Germany´s 3 IPC bid was used to place an inf in Libya-so there is one free fig and bom which can attack West Russia)

this is the situation in German lands:
Norway and Balkans are empty
Western Europe is defended with 4 inf, 1 art, 1 or 2 fig; Germany can leave one inf more if there is only one fighter there
Germany?-depends on the buy
Southern Europe?-depends on the buy
Eastern Europe is defended with 2 tanks
Karelia is defended with either 4 or 5 inf, it depends on Western Europe needs
West Russia is defended with 1 inf
Ukraine is defended with 3 tanks and one 1nf
Belorussia is empty

on UK´s first move it attacks Karelia with 2 inf, 1art, ten, 2fig, 1bom, 1bat-Germany looses 4 or 5 inf and kills 2 UK infantry
UK can buy enough land units to defend(if Germany bought only one 1AC or spent even less IPC to sea units)
2 UK fighters can land in Archangel and UK bomber can land in Novosibirsk-to pose a threat to Japanese sea units
On it´s second move Russia can take:West Russia with 4inf(3 if German inf hits); Ukraine with 2inf

the situation in Russian lands after its second move:
Karelia is defended with 1 UK art, ten
Archangel is defended with 2 UK fig and 2 Russian inf(which came from Russia)
West Russia is defended with 3 or 4 inf
Ukraine is defended with 2 inf
Caucaus is defended with 6 inf(from which 2 came from Russia) and with one fig
Moscow is defended with 6 inf

Russia has collected 29 IPC+the remaining 2 from the first round is 31

UK has enough space to build it´s navy, merge it with USA destroyer and 2 transports(which can bring some land units to UK in the first turns) and to constantly assault German lands-so USA can concetrate fully on Japan in the Pacific
and between Berlin and Moscow there is only one German tank-nothing more…

[Jennifer]

I’m not so much looking at it from a land control issue as a long term hit to the German war machine.  We all agree that 6 fighters is a significant force to attack and to defend against.  If we could make that 4 before they even get a shot and then drop it two more if they put two on a carrier, now they only have 2 fighters and a bomber.  That’s a huge relief to american and british invasion forces.

The only question then is this:  Can russia survive long enough, after pulling this, for the Englican (English/American) fleet to get relief to them by way of Fin/Nor or Karelia?

This does, basically, kill any dreams of Normandy.  You’re going to have to dump in Russia and push out, provinding only one front to the Germans…which means it’s easier for them to mass infantry.

[Guest]

The short answer is no.

Killing that second FIG means the loss of 1 or both of Russia’s FIGs, and it means leaving West Russia intact, which means Germany starts with 1 INF, 1 ART more than they normally have on G1…
(Eastern has 2 INF, 1 ARM, 1 FIG;  WR has 3 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM)

And those units are right where they need to be to threaten Moscow, instead of 2 turns and 2 combats away in Eastern.

That is a nice pick-up for Germany.

Given that open, I probably would not even bother with a Baltic AC… just sail out and engage the Brits, taking anything I could with my Baltic fleet, and send 8 ARM to West Russia, plus 4 FIGs and a BOM, then invade Moscow.  Back that up with an amphib on Caucuses combined with a land assault out of Ukraine and take Caucuses at the same time.

KRRF:  Kill Russia Realy Fast

[Amon-Sul]

yes but Russia can buy lots of units per turn
Germany´s position before it`s second move is that Germany has only a tenk between Moscow and Berlin

UK has two possibilities
1)UK can secure that Germans dont take anything beyond Anglo Egypt, but then an IC in India doesnt seem like a solution
2)UK can merge with the Australian transport and sub in South Compass Seazone and build an IC in Australia

In the second move UK can take East Indies with its expanded fleet and can also build some air or sea units in Australia
(The fighter from Bengal destroyed Japanese tranport and landed in Buryatia, later on it moved to the AC)
(the other fighter on the AC is Russian-from Caucaus, which moved to South Compass Seazpne in R2)

in these way, even with Germans Panzers harassing Africa UK can collect at least 30 IPC by taking East Indies and Borneo
USA should destroy Japan navy in Pear Harbour
and Japan faces enourmous threats on the sea
with lots of UK landings in India and French Indochina and with constant American pressure Japan will fall in sea and mainland
Russia only needs to hold, nothing more :-)

[Amon-Sul]

@ncscswitch:

The short answer is no.

Killing that second FIG means the loss of 1 or both of Russia’s FIGs, and it means leaving West Russia intact, which means Germany starts with 1 INF, 1 ART more than they normally have on G1…
(Eastern has 2 INF, 1 ARM, 1 FIG;  WR has 3 INF, 1 ART, 1 ARM)

And those units are right where they need to be to threaten Moscow, instead of 2 turns and 2 combats away in Eastern.

That is a nice pick-up for Germany.

Given that open, I probably would not even bother with a Baltic AC… just sail out and engage the Brits, taking anything I could with my Baltic fleet, and send 8 ARM to West Russia, plus 4 FIGs and a BOM, then invade Moscow.  Back that up with an amphib on Caucuses combined with a land assault out of Ukraine and take Caucuses at the same time.Â

KRRF:  Kill Russia Realy Fast

i am sorry, but it seems to me that you havent read my post, or ….

[Guest]

If Russia makes THAT open, I am not worried about Africa.

Germany’s income will be gained via Caucuses and Russia.  With the loss of the Russian FIG, most of their forces split apart and easilly picked off piecemeal, and with a rather significant German force adjacent to both moscow and Caucuses after R1, there WILL be an opening… most likely Caucuses.  You hit that from West Russia and with an amphib (bypassing an Egypt attack).  Add in the obligtory counters in Ukraine and Eastern, take Karelia with TRN’s units and Norway forces…

Russia is -6 IPC’s, has lost an IC, and Germany is probably going to be building adjacent to Moscow on G2 because Russia lacks the offensive punch to take it back.

And Amon… not that I did not read it, but you have 3 high risk battles there, and the odds are that at least one of them will fail most of the time.  Even if they succeed, you have your offensive forces spread paper thin, and you are backing it up with INF.  Germany can punch through on all fronts, and in enough force to prevent counters (Russia can probably do 1 counter, but the other two German break throughs will advance).

[Amon-Sul]

the odds for taking West Russia are 95%
you can check it by yourself or using the Proton Battle Sim

so forget German units in West Russia and the taking of Caucaus

[Guest]

I’ll let Tri do the breakdown of the net probabioity of the 3 combined battles.  He is rather good at those.  But with one of those already being “risky”, then the overall chance of all 3 succeeding becomes “poor”.

Taking Caucuses w/ West Russia was based on the original combat that started this thread (2 attacks, Ukraine and Eastern).

Your combat spread appears even thinner at first glance, even if all are successful.  All 3 attacks can be strongly countered, even West Russia usign AF (risking the AA fire) and the Belo INF.  And that would leave Russia with basically no offesnive forces (1 FIG).

Lastly, you are leaving the back door open by pulling the Evenk, Novo and Kazakh INF west.  That leaves you only 6 INF total to defend against Japan, and none to reinforce Sinkiang before it can be hit in J2.  Japan will ahve forces in 1 or more territories of the E/N/K perimter by J3, unless you are planning IC’s by either US or UK, further allowign Germany to focus on tearing through those paper thin Russian front lines in force.

[Nightmare]

That´s the problem about Russia.
It is able to do really much damage to Germany in R1-2, but if it really does it´s itself doomed in most games.