What's the consensus on a standard bid?

[Jennifer]

@Funcioneta:

Jen, 1 sub to Canada tra, 1 sub plus figs to z13 BB, and you lost a USSR fig with your nor attack.

No I didn’t lost a Russian fighter in the Norway attack.  How do you figure I did?

3 Infantry, Fighter from Karelia to Norway
Armor from Archangelsk to Norway

I have a 98% chance of having my fighter survive that battle and a 52% chance of killing the German fighter there.  According to frood.

(1 Attacking Units Must Survive, 3 Infantry, Armor, Fighter vs 3 Infantry, Fighter)

[U-505]

I think your math is wrong there, Commander.

I’m getting:

Norway taken-43.4%
cleared w/1 Rus fig remaining-16.4%
completely cleared-7%
attack fails-33.2%

You only really have to kill the German Norway fighter to make the German sz2 attack not worthwhile, but it’s still a 60/40 attack and it just doesn’t seem worth it to risk the Russian fighter. Better to do the typical Ukr/WR or even the Belo/WR attacks and let Germany spread itself thin on G1.

[axis_roll]

@U-505:

I think your math is wrong there, Commander.

I’m getting:

Norway taken-43.4%
cleared w/1 Rus fig remaining-16.4%
completely cleared-7%
attack fails-33.2%

You only really have to kill the German Norway fighter to make the German sz2 attack not worthwhile, but it’s still a 60/40 attack and it just doesn’t seem worth it to risk the Russian fighter. Better to do the typical Ukr/WR or even the Belo/WR attacks and let Germany spread itself thin on G1.

I get about the same numbers too

[Jennifer]

Not my numbers, their froods numbers.

Run it like this:

Norway:

Attacker: 3 Infantry, Armor, Fighter
Defender: 3 Infantry, Fighter

Make sure you put in the box that one attacker MUST survive. (This is the fighter which will land somewhere nice and safe where it cannot be harmed.)

[frood]

It’s hard to tell from my sim’s overall numbers how often you will succeed in taking land. Yes, in 53% of cases you will wipe out the Germans, but of those times, there will be some times when Russia survives with only 1 Ftr.

To get a better sense, you could put that 2 attacking units must survive, but that’s not very accurate either.

The only way to really tell is to look at the IPC diff. graph:
Probability % IPC loss differential
1.4% 19 IPCs
6.9% 16 IPCs
15.6% 13 IPCs
18.3% 10 IPCs

Germany has 19 IPCs of material in Norway. So an ILD (IPC Loss Differential) of 19 is total victory, without loss.
ILD of 16 means 1 Inf lost in taking Norway
13 means 2 Inf lost
10 means 3 Inf lost

Those are the 4 best case scenarios for the attack, and the only ones in which Russia successfully takes Norway. They add up to 42.2%.

Those are MY numbers. :evil:

[Jennifer]

I think I have found the issue.

You guys want to take the land.  I want to kill the defending fighter.  I could care less about taking the land!  Without that fighter, it becomes 2 submarines, bomber vs battleship, transport, submarine.  And those odds have the defending battleship surviving in 2 out of 3 battles, which is what is important.

[Funcioneta]

And you can’t all Nor, Ukr, wru. Even cannot attack nor, wru, bel. The risk of losing the fig is still there. And you left a tasty tank for counter by trannie  :-D

Even if you win at Nor, I still can hit z1 tra with 1 sub and go for z13 BB with the other sub plus figs . Norway attack disturbs greatly r1 and still the subs can do some work

-And it kills a tasty icecream tank. I call it tancream (chinese guy voice)
-That’s good (Homer Simpson voice)
-But the tancream is cursed
-That’s bad
-Tancream has a beautiful T-series design

• …. ???
  -That’s good

:lol:

[Jennifer]

I don’t have to hit Norway, W. Russia and Ukraine

Just hit W. Russia and Norway.  Very doable, and I don’t need the Norwegian land.  So yea, there might be a tank there to kill, it might not be there.  Point is, you kill the fighter thus ending the fighter, bomber, 2 submarine attack on SZ 2 and saving the battleship.

All that, and you don’t even lose a fighter!  (And since I don’t normally hit Ukraine anyway, I like to just hit W. Russia, this also nets me a fighter I otherwise would not have killed.)

[Funcioneta]

So? Why not kill the Nor stack all games?

[Jennifer]

@Funcioneta:

So? Why not kill the Nor stack all games?

Because killing the Nor stack to take the land is very costly.  Taking it to preserve the Battleship by destroying the fighter, is not as costly as losing the battleship and transport.

It’s just a way of saving the British fleet and giving England a chance to use it instead of losing it.  Doesn’t always work, but it does work enough that it’s effective in stopping an 8 bid submarine in SZ 8 from ending England’s ability to wage war.

[axis_roll]

@Cmdr:

I think I have found the issue.

You guys want to take the land.  I want to kill the defending fighter.  I could care less about taking the land!  Without that fighter, it becomes 2 submarines, bomber vs battleship, transport, submarine.  And those odds have the defending battleship surviving in 2 out of 3 battles, which is what is important.

Nope, not my dice sim.  66% chance of winning with Russia

My numbers are to kill the german ftr (at all costs) or better (Russian ftr survives, take the land, etc)

[Jennifer]

@axis_roll:

@Cmdr:

I think I have found the issue.

You guys want to take the land.  I want to kill the defending fighter.  I could care less about taking the land!  Without that fighter, it becomes 2 submarines, bomber vs battleship, transport, submarine.  And those odds have the defending battleship surviving in 2 out of 3 battles, which is what is important.

Nope, not my dice sim.  66% chance of winning with Russia

My numbers are to kill the german ftr (at all costs) or better (Russian ftr survives, take the land, etc)

What sim are you using?  I’m using Frood for mine, and I gave the parameters.

[axis_roll]

AA battlemap

[Jennifer]

@axis_roll:

AA battlemap

That’s a map, not a dice simulator. :P

[axis_roll]

oops, batsim

[newpaintbrush]

@axis_roll:

oops, batsim

(hums)

Bat-man!

Bat-man!

(Adam West voice) - To the com-Bat simulator!

[axis_roll]

@newpaintbrush:

@axis_roll:

oops, batsim

(hums)

Bat-man!

Bat-man!

(Adam West voice) - To the com-Bat simulator!

not sure why, but that made me laugh

[frood]

@axis_roll:

@newpaintbrush:

@axis_roll:

oops, batsim

(hums)

Bat-man!

Bat-man!

(Adam West voice) - To the com-Bat simulator!

not sure why, but that made me laugh

Maybe because it was funny!  :-D

I love my new paint brush…

[Mazer Rackham]

@axis_roll:

not sure why, but that made me laugh

You laugh because you are weak.

…and also because it was funny.

BTW - This is CrazyStraw/themarvinmartian here.  I’ve been out of the pool for a while, but it looked like fun so I’ve come back.  Everyone seemed to have changed names, so I thought I’d be a joiner.

[frood]

Egads! Another Orson Scott Card ID!

Now Jennifer just has to change her name to Bugger Queen…