How to do a G3 sealion with good chances of winning

[madscientist]

G1

Germany buys 1 AC and 2 transports.

Attack Normandy-Bordeaux with 3 inf and 1 art from Holland-Belgium

Attack Paris with 1 tac bomber from Poland, 3 tanks, 3 inf, 1 art and 2 mech inf from Western Germany, 1 inf and 1 art from Holland-Belgium, and 2 tanks from Greater Southern Germany.

Attack Southern France with 1 fighter from Slovakia-Hungary, 1 tank from Greater Southern Germany and 2 mech inf from Western Germany.

Move 1 inf from Norway to Finland

Move 1 inf from Romania to Bulgaria

Ignore Yugoslavia (leave for Italy)

Attack sz 111 with 1 sub from sz 124, 1 bomber from Berlin, 1 fighter from Norway and 1 tac bomber from Western Germany.

Attack sz 109 with 1 tac bomber from Western Germany and 1 bomber from Berlin.

Attack sz 110 with 1 tac bomber from Berlin, 1 tac bomber and 2 fighters from Western Germany, and 1 fighter from Holland-Belgium

Attack sz 106 with 1 sub from sz 117 and 1 sub from sz 118

Attack cruiser in sz 91 with 1 sub from sz 103 and 1 sub from sz 108

Non-combat

Land all planes in Holland-Belgium except tac bomber that attacked Paris (land in Western Germany) and fighter that attacked Southern France (land in Northern Italy).

Move 4 inf and 1 art from Greater Southern Germany to Western Germany

Transport 2 inf from Berlin to Norway using transport from sz 114 (move to sz 113); move cruiser in sz 114 to sz 113

Move 1 art and 2 inf from Greater Southern Germany to Berlin

Move 1 tank from Poland to Berlin

Move 1 tank from Slovakia-Hungary to Berlin

Move 1 tank from to Romania Berlin

Place AC and 2 transports in sz 113.

Germany collects 30 IPCs + 9 IPCs for France + 19 IPCs for pillaging Paris + 1 IPC for Bulgaria + 2 IPCs for Finland + 5 IPCs for not being at war with USSR + 5 IPCs for holding Denmark and Norway, for a total of 71 IPCs.

UK1

UK at this point can either vacate Scotland, or try to defend it. Either way, this sealion will still work. If UK defends Scotland, it will be less units defending London in turn 3.

Optimal thing for UK to do to defend London is to build 9 inf, and move all units in Scotland to London and move the fighter from Gibraltar to London.

Also, since Sealion is obvious, the UK player might move the fighter from Malta to Gibraltar and the tac bomber from sz 98 to Gibraltar, to defend London in G3. Italy can do something about this.

I1

Italy builds whatever

Key point: Italy should still have 1 tra and 1 cru in sz 95, which can be used to bombard and attack the 2 UK planes in Gibraltar (if UK landed them there in UK1), leaving a little less defence for London. Italy might just have a tra left in sz 97 to help out, especially if UK didn’t use the Malta fighter and sz 98 tac bomber to attack the ships in sz 97.

G2

Buy 9 tra (63 IPCs) and 1 destroyer (8 IPCs).

Attack Scotland with battleship, cruiser and 2 tac bombers to land on AC along with a transport 3 inf and 3 tanks from Berlin. If UK player has 3 fighters in Scotland and scrambles them, UK will probably lose them vs 2 tac bombers, 1 AC, 1 battleship and 1 cruiser. If UK does lose them, it will make taking over London way easier on round 3. Lose the tac bombers first in the sea battle if there is a scramble.

But let’s say the UK player left Scotland open, so Ger takes it with 3 inf and 3 tanks.

Important!

Germany does a strategic bombing raid of London! Use the 2 bombers and 3-4 fighters in Belgium. If UK uses some of its fighters as interceptors, it might lose 1, which would be good for less defense of London. Don’t forget, all the antiaircraft guns in London don’t count on a strategic bombing raid of the factory! They only defend the combat units! Thus 2 bombers and say 2 fighters should survive, with London being bombed for an average of 9 IPCs (die roll +2, according to 2nd ed. rules).

Non-combat a couple of planes to Western Germany to protect (via scramble) the new German naval units, which will be placed in sz 113.

Non-combat any remaining tanks in France to Western Germany. Move 1 art from Normandy to Belgium.

UK2

UK, having collected 28 IPCs + 1 IPC saved + 5 IPCs for having all of its European territories, minus 9 IPCs to repair the factory, should have 25 IPCs to spend, the wise purchase being 8 inf.

Thus London will be being defended by 1 bomber, 9 + 8 + 4 = 21 inf, 1 mech inf, 2 French inf, 4 UK fighters and 1 French fighter.

G3

Germany builds all inf to defend against USSR, who can attack in round 4.

Charge! Ger attacks London with 3 inf, 3 tanks from Scotland, and 5 tanks, 4 art and 9 inf from Berlin and 1 art and 1 inf from Western Germany using 9 tra from sz 113 and 1 tra from off Scotland. Ger also attacks London with 3 inf from Western Germany and 1 art from Belgium, with the remaining 2 tra from off Scotland. Ger also attacks with 6 planes, 1 of them being a bomber (if all 5 antiaircraft from the UK are in London then chances are 1 bomber will survive) Also bombard with battleship and cruiser.

So

UK has 1 bomber with a defence of 1
UK has 24 units at 2 for a defence of 48
5 units at 4 for a defence of 20
UK has a total defence of 69

Ger has 10 inf at 1 for an attack of 10
12 units at 2 for an attack of 24
8 tanks at 3 for an attack of 24
1 bomber at 4 for an attack of 4
Ger has a total attack of 62

According to my calculations, Germany should win the battle with 1 tank.

If you use “low-luck” (as I think it’s called), this is a guaranteed win.

On G4 Germany can build all tanks with the loot from London and go after Russia while blocking the US from taking back London with what’s left of the navy.

[ItIsILeClerc]

This is a well-known ploy already, MadScientist.

The thing we’ve all (more or less) come to agree with this is:
Germany is ‘trapped’. In the west (USA killing its Navy), with a ginormous strong Russia on its eastern borders.
So yes you get London but loose the game in the end -because of this very accomplishment!

Also, don’t forget that UK2 can strafe/attack Scotland in a (for the allies) more favourable odds ratio, plus SBRing London is a gamble: UK will have 30+1+5 (taking Persia)=36IPCs and they need only 30IPCs to repair. Germany Loosing 1 STR will worsen its odds on SL and with all STR surviving there’s still the pressure of doing > 6 dmg or esle it’s a raid causing nothing. Russia may attack by the rules right after London falls, so RU3.

It is an accomplishment that may see only a short period of celebration. Germany may very well burn in the long run anyway. Unless the allies panic and start fooling around ;-).

It is however not at all a lost game to build a 30-ish fleet with Germany with some extra TRS as well! UK must defend London and (especially if Japan can wait DOWing) the allies cannot defend London + Gibraltar both. Let alone what happens with Egypt if UK concentrates a lot of its forces in the West.

[ghr2]

I would strat bomb london round 2 and an airfield.  The benefit of making the UK have a harder time building units out-weighs the chance at losing a bomber to me.

[Dafyd]

I have played Germany only a few times in our group but I have noticed that none of our group of players has tried the operation sealion stratergy.  I believe it could work if the German player slowly bilds the transport fleet.  This gives no major alarm but does give some options.  Invasion of Leningrad is an option.  It seems like a lot for such a short distance but it can make the Soviet and British player nervous enough to make a mistake or become obsessed with defending the invasion which means other areas are being neglected.  Misdirection can be a powerful weapon.  There have been times I know that the German player would have loved to have a couple transports when the UK player was so focused on Africa and left London lightly protected.  Saying that, if the object of the game is victory cities, best bomb London’s IC, air fields and harbours into dust.  They will either spend money to rebuild or they will turtle with what build they can make.  Either way, the UK becomes less of a threat and the focus is then on THREE Soviet victory cities and the rich Caucus and middle east oil fields.

[pokemaniac]

I’m not convinced that Sea Lion is impossible to pull off in global in the right circumstance, but your Sea Lion attempt is not going to go well.

I am unsure if you are counting on losing virtually your entire air force in your turn one attacks, but if not, that is exactly what will happen. If I’m UK I am doing a max scramble into 110 without any doubt as well as scrambling the Scotland fighter into 111. In Low Luck, the UK will likely lose no planes if they max scramble (they might lose the Scotland fighter, but if they did the Battleship would definitely survive) while Germany will lose all planes that attack 110 and 111, leaving them with an air force of at most 4 planes (with a 1/3 chance of losing one in 109 and a 1/6 chance of losing one in Paris).

The gist of my UK strategy would be 9 inf turn 2 in London. Do a Taranto sending only the bomber from london, while sending a destroyer and the gib fighter to kill 96. African and Indian forces do standard stuff. Stack all UK units from London except 1 AA in Scotland. This means that Germany will have a 0% chance of attacking either London or Scotland (and the UK won’t lose any planes if Scotland is attacked). Scotland can be attacked by 6 transported Germans plus only 3 planes (2 tac and a bomber, the only other surviving plane from turn one is in N. Italy and not in range) and a Cruiser+Battleship bombard, while it is defended by 12 UK units, thus the 0% chance. On UK 2 I’d probably build max infantry or maybe 8 inf and a fighter (unless I was bombed by the Bomber and took damage in which case I’d build as many inf as possible, which would probably be 9 inf). The UK will haveThis will give Germany a 0% chance in low luck and a very, very low chance in dice of taking London.

If Germany retreated from the scrambled naval battles they might fare slightly better, but they will still take catastrophic plane losses, and retreating will allow both UK battleships to survive, meaning that Germany will have to fight through a solid sized UK navy in 110 if it wants to take London. They’d also run the risk of being attacked in 112 on UK2 (they couldn’t be in 113 because the UK could just block 112 and block the Germans from landing).

My recommendation to this strategy would be to be more conservative with your air force and commit the German battleship to 110. Maybe that would make it more viable. As is, Germany can not afford to trade 5+ German planes for just UK ships on turn one in any game, especially not a in a Sea Lion game.

[madscientist]

Yeah, you’re right, if UK scrambles fighters on the first turn it can make the naval battles not go well for Germany. What about, instead of attacking the Canadian des and tra, have the sub from sz 118 join in the battle in sz 111. Then have the sub in sz 117 join in the battle vs sz 109. And, like you said, have the battleship join in the sz 110 battle. Then UK has a higher chance of losing scrambled fighters and Germany will lose mainly subs and maybe the battleship.

The down side to that is that UK can transport the Canadian inf and tank to London to strengthen defense. However, UK might lose a scrambled plane.

[Chatdawg]

This thread is very interesting.  Our group has made it a habit to always reinforce London with the Canadian ground and naval units. At the same time, Germany usually throws its navy straight into the royal fleet.  Otherwise the British have a fleet and will begin western amphibious assaults on UK2.

We’ve found Germany has to throw its full air and naval weight (minus transport) at the British fleet, and also begin its rush to Moscow all on G1. G1 results don’t dictate the outcome of the game, but it definitely sets the tone.

[Jennifer]

Don’t forget, if you take London, America comes in the war sooner (as does Russia, but really it’s the juggernaut of America that Germany fears.)

I’ve even considered leaving England underdefended so as to encourage a Sea Lion.  It gives me more forces to bolster the Americans with for the retake as well as more troops in Africa/Middle East to harass the Italians with.  Just need to keep enough in England to do maximum damage while still encouraging the Germans to hit it (doesn’t take much to shift the balance of power there.  Move a couple fighters off or buy a destroyer instead of a couple infantry should be enough.)

[cyanight]

Sealion
G1
Purchase: 2 Bombers, save 6
SZ 106:  2 Subs (87%)
SZ 110: 3 fighters, 3 tactical bombers, 1 bomber, 2 subs (100% - 91%)
SZ 111: 1 fighter, 1 tactical bomber, 1 bomber, 1 sub, 1 battleship (98% - 81%)
• Try to retreat the battleship if only their battleship is left. Most of the time UK will scramble in Scotland
Yugo: 6 infantry, 2 tanks, 2 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 tactical bomber (100%)
France: 7 infantry, 6 tanks, 3 artillery, 4 mech (100%)

UK 1: If UK buys either 6 infantry and fighter or 9 infantry then I would not follow through with operation Sealion. UK must have less than 10 infantry and 2 fighters in their capital for this to work. Germany will bomb UK with 4 Bombers which almost always maxes the damage to the facility.

I1:
Purchase: 1 fighter.
SZ 93:  1 Sub, 2 fighters, 1 bomber (99%, note - DO NOT scramble the Italian planes)
Gibraltar: 1 Tank, 1 infantry, 1 CA (DD follows CA)
Southern France: 2 Infantry, 2 Artillery (96%)
Clear the French ships and move Navy to Gib.  Try to take with a tank and infantry.  Send 1 fighter and 1 bomber to West Germany.

G2
Purchase: 9 Transports, 1 Destroyer, 1 infantry (74 total, remember you saved 6 on turn 1)
Bomb London: bombers, 2 tactical bombers.  (The tactical bombers are to hit the airbase and to be taken as casualties instead of the bombers if AA fire succeeds.
Clear any ships that may be left over from round 1
Greece: 1 Fighter and Tactical bomber (from S. Italy), 6 inf (99%)
Normandy: 3 Artillery, 1 fighter (98%)

Build ships in 113 unless the allies have no ships or planes that can hit your transports. You should have a Cruiser, Destroyer and 10 Transports.  Move 9 tanks, 10 inf and 1 artillery in range to transport.  Italy will bomb the airbase again if UK decided to repair it.  If there are no planes to scramble then abort the bombing. Italy can also be used to remove blockers that may have escaped Germany’s planes.

UK will have between 30 – 35 to spend and 20 will go to repair the IC.  That means they can only build 5 infantry.  Assuming UK did not reinforce the capital and has 6 infantry, 5 AAA guns, 2 fighters, 1 mech.  They can transport the tank and infantry from Quebec and possibly fly another fighter or two back. The total that should be defending
• 12 infantry (5 purchased, 6 initial, 1 transported)
• 5 AAA guns
• 4 fighters
• 1 mech
• 1 tank

Germany attacks (100%, avg 14 units remaining)
• 10 infantry
• 9 tanks
• 1 artillery
• 2 fighters
• 4 tactical bombers
• 4 bombers

Sealion is situational and depends on how well London is defended.  The numbers above are assuming that UK knows Sealion is coming.  Lets suppose UK decided to move the TT from London down to South America. This means 1 less infantry and 1 less tank.  If you can manage to take London with 9 tanks surviving and 9 planes(losing only 1 to AA) then the attack is success. You can block US for a turn or two and move your tanks back to the mainland.  Russia is the immediate concern after a Sealion and if they are in position to stack Poland then don’t buy the transports.  US will take back London but Egypt should fall to Italy and Japan should be FAT from the oil and rubber in the DEI.

[ItIsILeClerc]

Was thinking along the same lines.
In addition, us Gamers should honor the principle of “hope for the best, plan for the worst”. Thus if bombing London to max out the IC AND the airbase, Germany best plans for loosing 2 aircraft and since only STR can raid an IC (so no TAC can be taken as loss, tripleA gets this wrong), I guess Germany does not have 2FTR+4TAC+4STR to attack London with GE3. More like 2FTR+3TAC+3STR.

Furthermore, if the IC receives ‘only’ 19 damage, UK can build 7INF.
Well, all this doesn’t really matter, I guess, since the worst thing that can happen to the Germans is the USA sinking their Kriegsmarine before Grossadmiral Raeder gets the boys back home from London. Remember the axis cannot block the USAAF aiming at the Kriegsmarine, only the USN trying to liberate London.

Anyway, the reason why Sea Lions can still be a success, even though it is a trap for Germany itself, is that it can be extremely difficult for the USA to dose their response. They have to get it exactly right against both Japan and Germany and from what I have seen, most of the time the USA gets the balance horribly wrong (which is quite understandable because it is so delicate)  :|.

[madscientist]

I realized that what Ger needs to do for sealion is to ignore sz 109 on turn 1! That way, Ger can attack sz 106 with subs from sz 117 and 118, and attack the cru in sz 91 with subs from sz 103 and 108.

Also, Ger should attack sz 111 with 1 sub from sz 124, 2 bombers, 1 tac bomber and 1 ftr from Western Germany, along with 1 ftr from Norway. If UK scrambles the Scotland ftr then the battle will be

Ger
1 sub at 2 for 2
2 ftrs at 3 for 6
3 at 4 for 12
For a total attack of 20

UK
1 des at 2
1 cru at 3
2 at 4
For a total defense of 13

Germany should win the battle with 1 ftr and 2 bombers, to be used in the strategic bombing raid of London on turn 2. Land ftr in WesGer to defend the 1 AC and 2 tra bought on purchase phase (also land tac bomber from Poland in WesGer in non-combat for 1 more plane for scramble if ships attacked).

For sz 110, Ger should attack with 1 battleship, 1 tac bomber from Berlin, 1 ftr and 2 tac bombers from WesGer and 1 ftr from Belgium.

Here’s the key thing: If UK scrambles all 3 ftrs for this sz 110 battle, they will have an advantage, so they may just do that! But if they do, they may lose 1-2 ftrs (assuming they keep the battleship), which will mean less defense for London on GE3. Anyway, if it looks like Ger is going to lose the battleship, retreat it to sz 112. If UK attacks the battleship on UK1 with their remaining battleship and des from sz 109, you can scramble ftr and tac bomber from WesGer.

Another key thing: if there are UK ships in sz 112 on GE2, then Ger can’t attack Scotland with the 3 tra. Italy saves the day by attacking sz 112 with 1 bomber and 2 ftrs in IT1 if there are UK ships there. Don’t forget, Italy also needs to attack Gibraltar if there are UK planes there!

In the above method, corrected from the first post of this thread, UK may lose ftrs that start on home soil, and chances are, does not get the Canadian inf and tank via the tra in sz 106, increasing the odds of Ger taking London on GE3.

[cyanight]

I usually buy a CV on the turn I perform the sealion in sz 110 from Normandy. Germany will have a CA, DD, CV, 2 Fighters which means if USA has 6 bombers they will have an 80% chance.  If perhaps the Bismark survived then US will need 8 bombers.  They start with one and can buy 3 each round with 16 left for ships. They are going to need ships and they cannot spend everything on bombers.  Also helps if Japan puts the heat on Hawaii or ANZAC.  I am in complete agreement that US will eventually destroy the navy or liberate UK but at what cost in the pacific? When you perform a Sealion US has to act fast and they must succeed. They have 1 turn to destroy that navy before it heads to the Baltic. All production in Africa is going to be shut down and Italy can begin to grow out of control.  When you perform a Sealion your trying to get a Pacific win.

[ItIsILeClerc]

@cyanight:

I usually buy a CV on the turn I perform the sealion in sz 110 from Normandy. Germany will have a CA, DD, CV, 2 Fighters which means if USA has 6 bombers they will have an 80% chance.  If perhaps the Bismark survived then US will need 8 bombers.  They start with one and can buy 3 each round with 16 left for ships. They are going to need ships and they cannot spend everything on bombers. (…)

What USA could do (assuming no J1DOW because that will give USA more to spend) is buy 2CV + 6STR and borrow ships/air from the Pac. Then US3 can attack with max 5FTR + 1TAC + 7STR. With this ploy, the USA must keep in mind that its fleet must survive because some of the units borrowed from the Pac must return safely there. The USA cannot invest >150TUV in Europe like this without loosing to an axis 6VC win in the Pac. Borrowing from the Pac = investing in Europe as far as I am concerned.

@cyanight:

Also helps if Japan puts the heat on Hawaii or ANZAC.  I am in complete agreement that US will eventually destroy the navy or liberate UK but at what cost in the pacific? When you perform a Sealion US has to act fast and they must succeed. They have 1 turn to destroy that navy before it heads to the Baltic. All production in Africa is going to be shut down and Italy can begin to grow out of control.  When you perform a Sealion your trying to get a Pacific win.

Agreed completely. With Japan I leaned that taking Hawaii/Sydney is not a problem at all. Keeping it, however, is!
If Japan wants a real shot at victory, it should first achieve its other goals and then top it off by taking Hawaii/Sydney, not the other way around. But, I might have gotten it wrong, ofc. Just my personal experience ;-).

I admit the USA is very difficult to play against some ‘exotic’ axis strategies (which SL is in my book). Even going full focus on Japan can be ‘interrupted’: what if parts of the (survived) Kriegsmarine + Regia Marina combine at Gibraltar after London fell? They threaten the USA itself plus numerous other targets. To name a few: Brazil, Egypt, South Africa by sea…. Provided Germany and Italy can do this whilst defending against Russia, but you get the point. Whatever the USA tries to do, the balance is very fragile and the axis can force it to spend on the European map no matter what.

[cyanight]

Very good points ItIsILeClerc, although I don’t think its wise to ever do a Sealion and a J1-DOW.  The plan above which I stated is very situational would be very risky with a J1-DOW.