@ Cow:
I perfectly know what you are talking about. I know that german drill in and out. The German breakdown from ROCMonster looks about right. If Germany never lost a land unit anywhere…
On the Russian side I miss 12 units somehow. UK should have 13air if you add the STR, so ROC you need to add 3FTR and also 8 more ART and 1 INF for the allies in the calculator. These are the exact maximum numbers. Subtract 2 INF for 2 more ARM and it is 100% complete. Maybe you forgot to take into account Russia takes Iraq (and Ethiopia and Somaliland, but those won’t add to Russian production since they are added RU5 & RU6).
102 Axis units (not bought a single ship and lost nothing at all) @ 222Power versus 111 Allied units @ 244 Power. Allies win with 20 units.
Surely Germany will loose a couple of INF and, sadly enough, raiding Moscow will loose Russia also just a couple of INF. Calculate it. It is right. Dealing 10 damage will have Russia produce 7 units in stead of 10, dealing 20 damage will have Russia build 5units instead of 10.
But here is the deal: Bombing Russia, with 12FTR there cannot be done safely. Only turn 4 can this be done (IF no FTR are there yet), by Japan/Italy. As soon as Germany starts bombing it gets interesting: Germany will loose enough aircraft to keep the odds in favor of the allies. All this bombing is pretty high risk for the axis as they cannot afford to loose 1 too many bomber to AAA-fire (particularly Germany) as this will worsen the final odds during the assault. I just redid the calculations from long time ago: with a successful bombing campaign over Moscow, the allies still win with 7 units surviving (instead of the previous mentioned 20). But if the campaign is not so successfull, and the AAA-guns hit 1 or two bombers too many… That’s what I do in A&A: hope for the best, but plan for the worst.
Even if Germany takes Moscow, the ‘win’ will be Pyrrhic style. Germany will loose too much units. So now Germany has to wait, GE7 or even GE8. Russia is still not dead, it can still produce and kill German STR that come in. On top of that, 23 Siberians + Mongolians are returning and are now in Moscow. One of the reasons those units must retreat. Allies must make painful choices at gamestart.
So in short, Moscow can stand through a GE6 all in and Germany will be VERY weak against the Western allies at this point. I have been there done that. Many times. Wallies will have permanently liberated Paris, West Germany, Northern Italy, Denmark, Holland and Norway and also bomb Berlin so no, Germany does not have the money anymore to spend on both theatres. Next city to fall is Rome.
Germany must make painful choices too. Be that to foolishly continue its all in against Moscow (loosing Berlin), or to finally start defending against the Wallies (Germany being the weaker side because their prologed focus on Moscow), relieving the pressure on Russia tremendously.