I don’t think the NOs really help the big Axis nations (Germany and Japan) until they are really close to victory already.
Take Germany’s NOs:
$5 if Germany controls Norway and Denmark and Sweeden is not Pro-Allied or Allied controlled.
$5 for German control of Leningrad
$5 for German control of Stalingrad
$5 for German control of Moscow
$5 for Axis control of the Caucasus
$5 for at least 1 German land unit in Axis controlled Egypt
$2 each for German control of Iraq, Persia and NW Persia
Now, the first NO (Sweeden) Germany will get for most of the game, especially if they are winning. The Allies could take Norway to prevent this NO, and while that in itself doesn’t necessarily mean a lost game for Germany, it usually means things are going rough for them.
The NO for 1 land unit in Egypt would mean that either Italy or Germany is doing well in the Med and UK is doing poorly. Loss of Egypt doesn’t mean game lost for UK, but it certainly puts them in a bad place.
When Germany invades Russia, they will often get Leningrad in 2-3 rounds and that extra $5 can boost production for Germany, but not to an outrageous extent when you consider they have to maintain an offensive in Russia while holding off the Western Allies and maybe aiding Italy all at the same time.
As for the other NOs in Russia and the Middle East, if Germany gets that far, that usually means Russia has been taken out of the game or is very close to it and Germany is very strong already. By this time, the extra cash from the NOs are almost superfluous because Germany is close to winning.
However, I have seen games where Germany takes Russia out, but the Western Allies end up beating Germany, so even with those new NOs it is not necessarily a game winner for Germany.
Japan’s NOs are pretty much the same. They get $5 for control of all four DEI islands but they have to commit a good amount of resources to do that, which could leave them vulnerable back home if the US goes strong in the Pacific.
The 5 island NO is next to impossible for Japan to achieve and maintain unless they just totally rule the Pacific.
Japan’s other NOs are Calcutta, Sydney, Honolulu and San Francisco. They have to get two of these to win the game. Calcutta is usually doable for Japan. Sydney and Honolulu is harder and Japan has to concentrate on one or the other. Assuming they keep Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Manila and Calcutta, then manage to get Sydney or Honolulu and hold all of these for a full round, they win the game so the extra $5 doesn’t mean so much. If Japan manages to take San Francisco, let’s face it, they have pretty much won the game anyway.
Where NOs really help are the small countries like Italy and ANZAC. For one thing, they start with such small incomes, they really need that NO money to be able to do anything worth while in the game. I think that is why their NOs are relatively easier to accomplish (at least when compared to some of Germany’s and Japan’s NOs).
Italy:
$5 for no Allied surface warships in the Med (sea zones 92-99) –— fairly easy
$5 for Axis control of 3 of the following: Gibraltar, Southern France, Greece and/or Egypt ---- harder but doable. Since it is Axis control, Germany can help with this.
$5 for Axis control of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Tobruk and Alexandria ---- Fairly hard but can be helped by Germany.
$2 each for Italian control of Iraq, Persia and NW Persia ---- Pretty hard, but if accomplished Axis might be winning.
ANZAC:
$5 for Allied control of Malaya and all original ANZAC territories — VERY easy, until Japan takes Malaya in which case the Allies have bigger problems to worry about.
$5 for Allied control (not Dutch) of Dutch New Guinea, New Guinea, New Britain and Solomon Islands — Easy and unlikely to be disrupted. Again, if Japan does disrupt this NO, Allies have bigger problems to worry about.
So you see, while the NOs do provide small boosts to the income of the larger nations, they are really needed by the little nations. However, if you really don’t like them, you can always play the game without NOs. A lot of people do that. I think most of the game will pretty much balance out, but don’t expect too much from Italy or ANZAC. I think overall playing with no NOs would benefit the Axis. The US gets an extra 20-25 IPCs upon entering the war. That will make a big difference in what they can do against the Axis.