Hall of Shame - tales of the worst dice ever

[gamerman01]

Rounding.  There’s no such thing as a 100% battle when dice need to be rolled.

[MagicQ]

@Gamerman01:

Rounding.  There’s no such thing as a 100% battle when dice need to be rolled.

Why does battle calculator tell me it is a 100% win then? I know it’s not 100% but what percentage exactly? 99.99% perhaps?

[ChocolatePancake]

Because battle calculator doesn’t actually calculate the battle, it just runs a bunch of simulations and tells you the % of times that you won in the simulation. If you never lose in the simulation, then it gives you 100%. For odds things happening that are, say 1/1000 or less then it may be unlikely that the battle calculator simulation will simulate any wins for you.

[gamerman01]

Very good point, Chocolate
I’m going to see what I get in a calc now

[gamerman01]

You’re doing something wrong or you have a bad calculator.

I have a calculator that does odds distributions as well as # of rounds.  Actually, I think this site does too, I’ll try that next.

Anyway, the chance that your bomber would hit 3 straight times after getting missed at least twice (to survive for the third roll) is a “whopping” .09%.  That’s 1 in 1,111, rare, but not super rare.

There is a 4.25% chance that the 2 infantry and fighter would whiff 3 straight rounds.

[gamerman01]

A&A.org calc isn’t as precise, but does show a .1% chance of all 3 units being lost in 3 rounds.

Actually, that’s easy to calculate by hand…

(1/6)^3 = .00463, or .5% chance that your 1 hits 3 in a row.

(5/6)^2 * 1/2 = .34722, or 34.7% chance of whiffing in a round
.34722^3 = .04186 or 4% chance of whiffing 3 straight rounds.

.04186*.00463 = .00019 that both would happen (the result you saw)

That’s .02% chance, or 1 in 5,000 which is pretty rare, as you would suspect.

The 1,111 was the chance the 2 infantry and fighter would be lost, but the bomber not necessarily surviving round 3.
The 1 in approx. 5,000 is the bomber surviving and hitting 3 straight times.

Many calculators are going to show 100%, not 99.98%.  Or as pancake said, will runs X number of battles and give results.  But even then, it could be subject to rounding.

Again, there is no such thing as a 100% battle when dice are to be rolled (only defenseless AA guns or transports are 100%)

[MagicQ]

@Gamerman01:

You’re doing something wrong or you have a bad calculator.

I have a calculator that does odds distributions as well as # of rounds.  Actually, I think this site does too, I’ll try that next.

Anyway, the chance that your bomber would hit 3 straight times after getting missed at least twice (to survive for the third roll) is a “whopping” .09%.  That’s 1 in 1,111, rare, but not super rare.

There is a 4.25% chance that the 2 infantry and fighter would whiff 3 straight rounds.

You are right. I was using triplea BC. Didn’t know there are better ones. lol

[gamerman01]

Now watch your game soar to the next level!  :mrgreen:

[MagicQ]

@ChocolatePancake:

Because battle calculator doesn’t actually calculate the battle, it just runs a bunch of simulations and tells you the % of times that you won in the simulation. If you never lose in the simulation, then it gives you 100%. For odds things happening that are, say 1/1000 or less then it may be unlikely that the battle calculator simulation will simulate any wins for you.

Good news for your friend is that statistically he will not be so unlucky in his next 1000 99.9% win battles.  :evil:

[MagicQ]

@Gamerman01:

(1/6)^3 = .00463, or .5% chance that your 1 hits 3 in a row.

(5/6)^2 * 1/2 = .34722, or 34.7% chance of whiffing in a round
.34722^3 = .04186 or 4% chance of whiffing 3 straight rounds.

.04186*.00463 = .00019 that both would happen (the result you saw)

find a little problem here
whiff 1st round is .34722
whiff 2nd round will be more likely to happen if opponent hit 1st round.
should it be (5/6) * (1/2)= .41667?
3nd round is 1/2?

0.347220.416670.5=0.0723

0.00463*0.0723=0.00033=0.033%(both happen)

right?

[MagicQ]

compare with LL game

(1/6)(2/6)(1/2)=0.0278

0.00463*0.0278=0.00013=0.013%(both happen)

so 2inf 1 fig attack 1 BMB

1bmb has 3 times more chance to survive in dice game than LL game.

[gamerman01]

@MagicQ:

@Gamerman01:

(1/6)^3 = .00463, or .5% chance that your 1 hits 3 in a row.

(5/6)^2 * 1/2 = .34722, or 34.7% chance of whiffing in a round
.34722^3 = .04186 or 4% chance of whiffing 3 straight rounds.

.04186*.00463 = .00019 that both would happen (the result you saw)

find a little problem here
whiff 1st round is .34722
whiff 2nd round will be more likely to happen if opponent hit 1st round.
should it be (5/6) * (1/2)= .41667?
3nd round is 1/2?

0.347220.416670.5=0.0723

0.00463*0.0723=0.00033=0.033%(both happen)

right?

True, the bomber hits were reducing the offense.  Assuming your .033 is correct, it’s 1 in 3000 rather than 1 in 5000

[JDOW]

Time to dig this thread out again.

Look at this: UK1
Combat - British
Battle in 110 Sea Zone
British attack with 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport
Germans defend with 1 submarine
British roll dice for 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport in 110 Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
1 destroyer owned by the British lost in 110 Sea Zone
Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
1 transport owned by the British retreated to 109 Sea Zone
Germans win with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
British attack with 1 bomber
Germans defend with 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
British roll dice for 1 bomber in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 artillery in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
1 artillery owned by the Germans and 1 bomber owned by the British lost in Normandy Bordeaux
Germans win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
Casualties for British: 1 bomber
Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery

Combat - British
Battle in 110 Sea Zone
British attack with 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport
Germans defend with 1 submarine
British roll dice for 1 destroyer, 2 fighters and 1 transport in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 110 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
1 destroyer owned by the British lost in 110 Sea Zone
1 transport owned by the British retreated to 109 Sea Zone
Germans win with 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
Casualties for British: 1 destroyer

Battle in Normandy Bordeaux
British attack with 1 bomber
Germans defend with 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor and 1 harbour
British roll dice for 1 bomber in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 artillery in Normandy Bordeaux, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
1 artillery owned by the Germans and 1 bomber owned by the British lost in Normandy Bordeaux
Germans win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is -8
Casualties for British: 1 bomber
Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery

No, I did NOT copy and paste this twice by accident but this exact sequence of events took place in 2 consecutive games.

The combined odds of losing 110 AND losing the bomber (which would have retreated after round 1) were 0.03 x 0.33 x 0.03 x 0.33 = 0.01%

This is certainly the worst consecutive Allied starts I had ever.

[akreider2]

I had 21 or 22 hits from my 25 defending infantry (Russia defending Leningrad against Germany). I calculated the odds and it was 1 in 100,000 (maybe 1 in 110,000).

[JDOW]

So you need your own thread for the hall of fame of the best dice a player can get:D

[AndrewAAGamer]

As Japan at “Days of Infamy” website playing the final match of the original Pacific game for the Admiral Championship Trophy and in my case Top and Highest Ranking ever achieved on the website. Last Turn. I need two points to win (20 IPC) and if I fail the US bombers are going to bomb me back into the Stone Age on their Turn. The only critical battle I could not get 100% odds on was Borneo where a single infantry defender was attacked by 2 infantry and 2 artillery. 99.9% chance of success.

I rolled 4 misses, he hit. I rolled 3 misses, he hit. I rolled 2 misses, he hit. I rolled 1 miss, he hit. I missed 10 2’s in a row and he hit 4 2’s in a row. My slightly deficient math skills tell me that is a 1 in 10,000 chance. Cost me the Admiral Trophy and the highest ever ranking in the Club. Had to wait a whole year to get those two goals accomplished.

That was over 15 years ago and I remember it like yesterday. Not bitter at all about it am I?

[akreider2]

For these situations the old AA Calculator/simulator does a better job with showing odds on unlikely probabilities. I think it shows everything that is 0.01% or more (maybe only if you do 10k simulations). Bizarrely it is also a lot faster than the TripleA battle simulator.

http://calc.axisandallies.org

[Rodolfo Graziani]

I attacked Bessarabia with 8 tanks 2 inf versus 5 infantry. I got one hit, and my brother, the defender, got 5 hits.

[gamerman01]

OOOWWWWW - 2 infantry and 3 tanks destroyed, and down to 5 tanks vs. 4 infantry!

0.4% chance of all 5 infantry hitting, and combined with 2.35% of scoring 0 or 1 hits as the attacker!

[Colt45554]

Battle in Kiangsu
Americans attack with 2 bombers, 9 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
Japanese defend with 1 factory_minor, 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 5 tactical_bombers
Americans roll dice for 2 bombers, 9 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber in Kiangsu, round 2 : 2/12 hits, 6.50 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 5 tactical_bombers in Kiangsu, round 2 : 6/8 hits, 4.17 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese, 1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 6 fighters owned by the Americans lost in Kiangsu
Americans roll dice for 2 bombers, 3 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber in Kiangsu, round 3 : 1/6 hits, 3.50 expected hits
Japanese roll dice for 2 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers in Kiangsu, round 3 : 5/6 hits, 3.33 expected hits
1 tactical_bomber owned by the Japanese, 1 tactical_bomber owned by the Americans, 2 fighters owned by the Americans and 2 bombers owned by the Americans lost in Kiangsu
1 fighter owned by the Americans retreated
Japanese win with 2 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is -94
Casualties for Americans: 2 bombers, 8 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber
Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers

Average dice results in 100% odds, plus-25 TUV, 6.75/12 units remaining. Reality: US retreats with 1/12 aircraft surviving, leaving 5/8 defenders still alive, minus-94 TUV. Entire Allied fleet is forced to flee SZ6 and abandon korea factory. Awful!
https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/36209/l21-freh-v-colt45554-l-16-bm/146?page=6