What works as Italy? That’s a good question to ask because there are several themes to an Axis victory and some of them run counter to success as Italy.
Italy’s weaknesses:
1. Small starting economy
2. Convoy raids in sea zone 97 can destroy the economy
3. Destroyers needed to prevent convoy raids are vulnerable to aircraft
4. Building a large fleet to protect sea zone 97 is expensive and so is building multiple air bases and fighters
5. Requires experience with amphibious operations to threaten Gibraltar, Greece, and Egypt.
6. Gibraltar is one fleet move from US
7. Moves late in turn order after Britain
Italy’s advantage:
1. Germany can help if they hold Southern France, Yugoslavia, or Greece
2. Egypt can be taken
3. Numerous National Objectives that can be achieved
a. no surface warships in Med
b. take northern coast of Africa
c. take 3 of Egypt, Greece, Southern France, or Gibraltar
d. oil bonus for Iraq, Persia, or northwest persia
4. Can opening moves in Russia
So as an example, a J1 attack on the US is tough for Italy as the US can immediately begin dumping submarines into the Med. A J4 attack is good for Italy as it keeps the US out of of the war but that makes winning in the Pacific tough.
B1 attacks usually wipe out sea zone 96 (DD and transport) and often sea zone 97 (BB, CA, and transport). If Germany doesn’t threaten Sea Lion, sea zone 95 (SS, CC, CA, and transport) get attacked as well.
So Italy should adopt a range of strategies depending on what Germany is doing. Worst case would be G1 J1 where Italy is going to be picked off first as the weakest Axis power. US and UK submarines will start arriving on turn 3 so buying destroyers early will be necessary. A very defensive Italy would leave the troops in Africa to hold out as best they could, stack infantry in Italy, and defend sea zone 97 with destroyers and fighters from air bases.
If Germany and Japan are going for a G3/4 Sea Lion and J3/4 India Crush, then there should be a lot less pressure in the Med on Italy. No US subs to deal with and the UK and French Navies should be getting hammered by German aircraft. Germany needs to help in South France, Yugo, or Greece by build more destroyers and air bases. The more aggressive Italian fleet still needs to stay in cover of air bases, so going to Syria with air cover from Greece is a decent option. The other way is to look at the transports as expendable and just expect them to be sunk after delivering troops to Syria, Trans-Jordan, or Egypt. Grabbing Gibraltar is fun but submarines get past anyway and the US wil eventually just send more troops than Italy can stop. Italian submarines in this case are handy as they can go all over the Med from their central position.