@ghr2:
@Commando:
Sure. Go ahead and attack SZ97 w/the UK units. In Alpha 2, this means the UK attacks w/1 DD, 1 CC, 1 AC, 2 FTR’s, 1 Tac vs. 2 FTR’s, 1 BB, 1 CC. Problem is, if the UK AC takes a hit the surviving planes have no place to land. So they die. If you don’t bring the AC, then it’s a 50/50 battle. You might survive w/1 Tac or FTR left. Next turn, Germans kill the remaining fleet for the Italians, then the Med is open to the Italians and and UK Europe has virtually no navy left. If the Germans put 2 FTR’s in the S. Italy, instead of 1 FTR and the UK brings the AC, then it’s a 50/50 battle w/the UK. But again, the UK loses it’s airforce in the Med. If UK doesn’t bring the AC, then it’s a 84% chance win in favor of the Italians. They lose 1 Italian cruiser and 2 German FTR’s and Italy is even more powerful.
In Alpha 3, this is even more in favor of the Italians b/cuz they start w/2 FTR’s in S. Italy, instead of one and there’s only 1 Italian Trans in SZ97, not two. So, Italy loses less.
In my opinion, it’s better for the Brit fleet to retreat to SZ81, keep the Med strong and live to fight another day where you have better odds. If I’m playing the Axis, I would love for the Brits to Taranto, makes for a stronger Italy. Italy can more easily build their units back and get them to the front than the UK can. Especially if the German player is doing their job and economically taking out UK Europe.
Uk can dedicate 1 carrier, 1 cru, 1 dd, 1 fig, 1 tac, and 1 strat without having to land on carrier 84% odds to win if no german support, and bring another 2 figs down to carrier from england if germany reinforces southern, 1 extra uk fig is 81% and 2 is 94%, so unless uk gets heavy diced, the only thing keeping them from doing taranto is a sealion threat.
Your first scenario w/1 AC, 1 CC, 1 DD, 1 FTR, 1 Tac vs. 3 FTR’s, 1 BB, 1 CC is 53% chance the Brits win, which is basically a 50/50 battle. Not 84%. Not sure where you’re calculating your odds but I’ll provide the link…
http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html
If you max pressure Taranto(3 FTR’s, 1 Tac, 1 SBR, 1 AC, 1 DD, 1 CC), you get a win % of 94% but pretty much finish the battle w/2 FTR’s, 1 Tac, 1 SBR left. I counter w/the Italians by attacking w/2 Inf, 2 Art, 1 CC, 1 SBR. I win 71% of the time, kill all the UK airforce, minus 2 FTR’s and only lose 2 Inf, 2 Art. Med completely empty of UK airforce and navy. Italy still has 2 Trans, 2 DD’s, 1 Sub and 1 CC left w/not having to worry about any pressure from the UK. Sounds like a good trade off to me. Then SeaLion becomes a much more viable option for Germany. In my opinion, better to keep the UK alive(i.e. have a strong UK Europe), keep your Brit fleet in the Med alive, so they can shuck units around and harass Italy. Then, you can build major units(i.e. tanks) out of S. Africa and still have IPC’s left to build navy out of SZ106. Sounds like there’s a lot of people out there who don’t know how to play Italy.