G1 Attack on Russia?

[wheatbeer]

SBR is not useless when interceptors hit at 2.

Lets say 6 Allied fighters guard Moscow (hitting at 2)
Germany sends 3 fighter escorts, 3 strategic bombers to SBR

On average this results in:
German loss of 2 fighters in the dogfight and maybe 1 strategic bomber to aa fire
Allied loss of 1 fighter and ~10-15 damage to the major IC

If the bombers get lucky, the Axis net gain.
If the bombers don’t get lucky, the Allies net gain.

It’s also about more than just IPC.  Any time IPC goes to repairs instead of units, that is equivalent to killing units without letting them fire back.

[Alsch91]

Spendo, the fact that a 2-interceptor would make you think twice about sending a bomber against a fighter is exactly the point.
If I’ve got interceptors then you should have to send escorts.  The way it is now, interceptors are nearly useless in all but the most extreme cases.

@Young:

Almost 1700 views could be another way to sum up this thread.

To be fair Grasshopper, number of views means just about nothing.  If there were a hundred people that vehemently disagreed with you, there would still be a lot of views.

[Young Grasshopper]

All I ment was, it’s an interesting topic, and a viable argument.

[Spendo02]

@Alsch91:

Spendo, the fact that a 2-interceptor would make you think twice about sending a bomber against a fighter is exactly the point.
If I’ve got interceptors then you should have to send escorts.� The way it is now, interceptors are nearly useless in all but the most extreme cases.

1        IPC Reduction
1 16.67% 0.17
2 16.67% 0.33
3 16.67% 0.50
4 16.67% 0.67
5 16.67% 0.83
6 16.67% 1.00
IPC Cost to Defender per SBR 5.5

Event                                   P            LAC   IL     ID     IC     NC  
Ftr @1 (Miss), AA (Miss Both) 76.39% $0 $0 $11 $8 $8
Ftr @1 (Miss), AA (1 Hit) 4.63% $15 $1 $6 $0 -$0
Ftr @1 (Miss), AA (2 Hit) 2.31% $30 $1 $0 $0 -$1
Ftr @1 (Hit), AA (Miss Both) 15.28% $15 $2 $6 $1 -$1
Ftr @1 (Hit), AA (1 Hit)        0.93% $30 $0 $0 $0 -$0
Ftr @1 (Hit), AA (2 Hit)        0.46% $30 $0 $0 $0 -$0
IPC Cost to Attacker                $4 $9 $5

P = Probability of Event occurring
LAC = Value of Aircraft Lost
IL = P * LAC which when summed to $4 is the cost of the SBR to Germany
ID = Damage to the Major IC based off the probability of rolling a 1 through 6 (its rounded from 5.5)
IC = P * ID which when summed to $9 is the cost of the SBR to London
NC = IC - IL which when summed to $5 and cross footed ( $9-$4 ) is the actual damage the SBR causes net of all probabilities.

Event                                   P            LAC   IL     ID     IC     NC
Ftr @2 (Miss), AA (No Hit) 61.11% $0 $0 $11 $7 $7
Ftr @2 (Miss), AA (1 Hit) 3.70% $15 $1 $6 $0 -$0
Ftr @2 (Miss), AA (2 Hit) 1.85% $30 $1 $0 $0 -$1
Ftr @2 (Hit), AA (No Hit) 30.56% $15 $5 $6 $2 -$3
Ftr @2 (Hit), AA (1 Hit)        1.85% $30 $1 $0 $0 -$1
Ftr @2 (Hit), AA (2 Hit)        0.93% $30 $0 $0 $0 -$0
IPC Cost                                                 $7 $9 $2

P = Probability of Event occurring
LAC = Value of Aircraft Lost
IL = P * LAC which when summed to $7 is the cost of the SBR to Germany
ID = Damage to the Major IC based off the probability of rolling a 1 through 6 (its rounded from 5.5)
IC = P * ID which when summed to $9 is the cost of the SBR to London
NC = IC - IL which when summed to $2 and cross footed ( $9 - $7 ) is the actual damage the SBR causes net of all probabilities.

So the change from interceptors rolling @1 versus rolling @2 is approximately 3 IPC to Germany in a 2 Bombers versus 1 Ftr scenario; an entirely possible scenario on G2.

Probabilities were derived from:
(5/6) = Miss from Ftr @1 - meaning you rolled anything but a 1
(1/6) = Hit from Ftr @1 - meaning you rolled a 1
(33/36) = Miss from AA @1 - meaning you rolled anything but a 1 on either die
(2/36) = 1 Hit from AA @1 - meaning the die roll was a 2 and a 1 or a 1 and a 2
(1/36) = 2 Hit from AA @1 - meaning you rolled snake eyes

(4/6) = Miss from Ftr @2 - meaning you rolled anything but a 1 or 2
(2/6) = Hit from Ftr @2 - meaning you rolled a 1 or 2

So in example, a Ftr @1 scoring a hit and AA misses both = 2/6 * 33/36 = 15.28% probability this occurs sequentially.  
That probability is multiplied by the value of aircraft lost (either 15 or 30) and also by the most probable value a bomber would score for a successful SBR (5.5 per Bomber).  
Then you just subtract the cost from the benefit and get the actual value (or loss) in a German SBR on London of 2 Bombers versus 1 Ftr.

Something else to realize is that this is just a probability evaluation of if you should do something.  A positive number indicates a gain, a negative number indicates a loss - obviously you don’t want to do something that is a loss unless there are unmeasurable advantages to gain from it.

The relevant range of IPC damage for both bombers escaping interceptors is as low as 6 IPC or as high as 16 IPC which you have approximately 6% of accomplishing against a single Ftr @1.  It drops to just over a 5% chance against a single Ftr @2.

A better expectation, therefore, is to assume +/-1 from 9 IPC if both bombers get through which accounts for just shy of 50% of all probable outcomes.

Edit: Apologies for the terrible column formatting.

[Alsch91]

Sorry Spendo but that’s pretty illegible.
Most of the people here understand probability, so you can just skip to the results most of the time.

I can’t really respond much because of that.
Just that interceptors rolling at 2 worked great when that was the roll.
It made the attacker think hard about bombing.  Now it’s just Germany bombing whatever it feels like because there’s no way the Allies can do anything with interceptors that roll at 1.  At 1, interceptors are useless.

[wheatbeer]

Also, Spendo, strategic bombers cost 12 IPC not 15 IPC.

[Spendo02]

@Alsch - I cannot defend my argument that a Bomber is a benefit of 9 IPC to Germany and costs Germany 7 IPC without providing how I came up with those numbers as they do not correlate to anything people see in the game.

@Wheat - I have no idea why I was thinking 15 IPC for a bomber, I think that was the old game’s price?  Anyways, without re-running the analysis I believe that drops the German cost down to something in the range of 5 IPC, for a net benefit of 4 IPC to Germany for SBR with Ftr @2

[techroll42]

@Alsch91:

Sorry Spendo but that’s pretty illegible.
Most of the people here understand probability, so you can just skip to the results most of the time.

I can’t really respond much because of that.
Just that interceptors rolling at 2 worked great when that was the roll.
It made the attacker think hard about bombing.  Now it’s just Germany bombing whatever it feels like because there’s no way the Allies can do anything with interceptors that roll at 1.  At 1, interceptors are useless.

Yeah, what I find is that what with Germany’s tacs, fgts, and strats, the RAF will lose planes if it goes up vs. the Luftwaffe, and it’ll never win like it did IRL (barring luck/jets/radar).

[Jercules]

@Spendo02:

@Alsch91:

Spendo, the fact that a 2-interceptor would make you think twice about sending a bomber against a fighter is exactly the point.
If I’ve got interceptors then you should have to send escorts.� The way it is now, interceptors are nearly useless in all but the most extreme cases.

1        IPC Reduction
1 16.67% 0.17
2 16.67% 0.33
3 16.67% 0.50
4 16.67% 0.67
5 16.67% 0.83
6 16.67% 1.00
IPC Cost to Defender per SBR 5.5

Event                                   P            LAC   IL     ID     IC     NC  
Ftr @1 (Miss), AA (Miss Both) 76.39% $0 $0 $11 $8 $8
Ftr @1 (Miss), AA (1 Hit) 4.63% $15 $1 $6 $0 -$0
Ftr @1 (Miss), AA (2 Hit) 2.31% $30 $1 $0 $0 -$1
Ftr @1 (Hit), AA (Miss Both) 15.28% $15 $2 $6 $1 -$1
Ftr @1 (Hit), AA (1 Hit)        0.93% $30 $0 $0 $0 -$0
Ftr @1 (Hit), AA (2 Hit)        0.46% $30 $0 $0 $0 -$0
IPC Cost to Attacker                $4 $9 $5

P = Probability of Event occurring
LAC = Value of Aircraft Lost
IL = P * LAC which when summed to $4 is the cost of the SBR to Germany
ID = Damage to the Major IC based off the probability of rolling a 1 through 6 (its rounded from 5.5)
IC = P * ID which when summed to $9 is the cost of the SBR to London
NC = IC - IL which when summed to $5 and cross footed ( $9-$4 ) is the actual damage the SBR causes net of all probabilities.

Event                                   P            LAC   IL     ID     IC     NC
Ftr @2 (Miss), AA (No Hit) 61.11% $0 $0 $11 $7 $7
Ftr @2 (Miss), AA (1 Hit) 3.70% $15 $1 $6 $0 -$0
Ftr @2 (Miss), AA (2 Hit) 1.85% $30 $1 $0 $0 -$1
Ftr @2 (Hit), AA (No Hit) 30.56% $15 $5 $6 $2 -$3
Ftr @2 (Hit), AA (1 Hit)        1.85% $30 $1 $0 $0 -$1
Ftr @2 (Hit), AA (2 Hit)        0.93% $30 $0 $0 $0 -$0
IPC Cost                                                 $7 $9 $2

P = Probability of Event occurring
LAC = Value of Aircraft Lost
IL = P * LAC which when summed to $7 is the cost of the SBR to Germany
ID = Damage to the Major IC based off the probability of rolling a 1 through 6 (its rounded from 5.5)
IC = P * ID which when summed to $9 is the cost of the SBR to London
NC = IC - IL which when summed to $2 and cross footed ( $9 - $7 ) is the actual damage the SBR causes net of all probabilities.

So the change from interceptors rolling @1 versus rolling @2 is approximately 3 IPC to Germany in a 2 Bombers versus 1 Ftr scenario; an entirely possible scenario on G2.

Probabilities were derived from:
(5/6) = Miss from Ftr @1 - meaning you rolled anything but a 1
(1/6) = Hit from Ftr @1 - meaning you rolled a 1
(33/36) = Miss from AA @1 - meaning you rolled anything but a 1 on either die
(2/36) = 1 Hit from AA @1 - meaning the die roll was a 2 and a 1 or a 1 and a 2
(1/36) = 2 Hit from AA @1 - meaning you rolled snake eyes

(4/6) = Miss from Ftr @2 - meaning you rolled anything but a 1 or 2
(2/6) = Hit from Ftr @2 - meaning you rolled a 1 or 2

So in example, a Ftr @1 scoring a hit and AA misses both = 2/6 * 33/36 = 15.28% probability this occurs sequentially.  
That probability is multiplied by the value of aircraft lost (either 15 or 30) and also by the most probable value a bomber would score for a successful SBR (5.5 per Bomber).  
Then you just subtract the cost from the benefit and get the actual value (or loss) in a German SBR on London of 2 Bombers versus 1 Ftr.

Something else to realize is that this is just a probability evaluation of if you should do something.  A positive number indicates a gain, a negative number indicates a loss - obviously you don’t want to do something that is a loss unless there are unmeasurable advantages to gain from it.

The relevant range of IPC damage for both bombers escaping interceptors is as low as 6 IPC or as high as 16 IPC which you have approximately 6% of accomplishing against a single Ftr @1.  It drops to just over a 5% chance against a single Ftr @2.

A better expectation, therefore, is to assume +/-1 from 9 IPC if both bombers get through which accounts for just shy of 50% of all probable outcomes.

Edit: Apologies for the terrible column formatting.

On a purely equal playing field, this analysis shows the rules as-are make sense (well done Spendo).

The trouble is, in the game the playing field is not equal; neither Britain nor Russia can compete with the Luftwaffe early on, and as a result a dedicated SB campaign by the Germans makes Sea Lion a certainty (on G3), and Barbarossa a likely certainty (although the evidence is, as of yet, scant).

To cite an extreme example of what I’m talking about, a pure air raid by the Japanese on the fighter stack of the Chinese is often, statistically, a poor decision (as in, the expected losses for the attacker exceed those of the defender). Nonetheless, it is done, for the simple reason that the IPCs themselves have less value to Japan than to China.

The situation is similar with Germany vs. USSR/UK.

[Cow]

problem is you can’t do sea lion and J2 DOW. USA flies 5 bombers into uk makes the takedown by germany highly unlikely (~20% odds). So your japan has to wait till round 3 to DOW and that buys uk pac and anzac lots of time.

USA eventually liberates UK. Russia should have bought some mech/tank round 1 against a naval purchase from germany and round 2 move into position to hold romania and round 3 take 3 territories from germany for +9 on his turn with a big stack in one of the territories holding tight.

The wonderful thing about usa bomber purchase is that if you don’t do sea lion and just bluffed it… it can always sink whatever naval purchase germany buys (follow up with more bombers land UK and blast away). even if japan does not declare war round 3. you get there in time as long as ruskies give you a spot to land.

The air from germany has a triple threat, which is why I been seeing Egypt complex drop. People just tired of dealin with it lol.

[Cow]

if germany is full on attacking for russia, russia should not have little 1 man armies layin around, the exception is you sending 1 or 2 guys to kill 1 or 2 guys with your air.

leaving guys for italy to kill is no good that 1. try to fight germans only, because that is who will all in you.

[questioneer]

@Cow:

problem is you can’t do sea lion and J2 DOW. USA flies 5 bombers into uk makes the takedown by germany highly unlikely (~20% odds). So your japan has to wait till round 3 to DOW and that buys uk pac and anzac lots of time.

USA eventually liberates UK. Russia should have bought some mech/tank round 1 against a naval purchase from germany and round 2 move into position to hold romania and round 3 take 3 territories from germany for +9 on his turn with a big stack in one of the territories holding tight.

The wonderful thing about usa bomber purchase is that if you don’t do sea lion and just bluffed it… it can always sink whatever naval purchase germany buys (follow up with more bombers land UK and blast away). even if japan does not declare war round 3. you get there in time as long as ruskies give you a spot to land.

The air from germany has a triple threat, which is why I been seeing Egypt complex drop. People just tired of dealin with it lol.

Yes if shown Sealion, 5 bombers by US is good, although if Germany Sealion’s on G3, that doesn’t guarantee a win in the game, it makes Russia stronger especailly with the NO they have.  Successful Sealion doesn’t equal an Axis win.

I think the best threat to the Allies is still a turn 2 Russian crush by all Axis, though I believe there are ways to refute this.

This is why I’m not convinced the game is Axis biased.  Way too early to determine this.  On a personal level, I think (as of right now) the game is slightly Allied advantage.

[questioneer]

Cow are you going to play me a couple games or what???  I got a couple of TripleA games going now.  We can play by forum.

[Cow]

Log on the triple a lobby. suggest a time and a time zone for me to be on. Tell you what, I got saturday with zero plans. I got thursday with zero plans. Friday I am got work and plans… I’ll be home before midnight.

I stay on hawaiian time so  suggest a time and i’ll sleep or coffee for it.

[cond1024]

Tried the G1 Barbarossa.  Baltic states went pretty bad but the Russian counter on east Poland went even worse. I captured Moscow on G5 and allies surrendered round 6.  It worked well enough to try again, but the element of surprise is gone on my opponent so it might not work as well.

[Cow]

UK1 is very important against germany barb 1. Drop egypt minor, fighter inf for uk. sink 97. USA 1 carrier dds for atlantic, pull figs in from pac to fill them.  keep bomber on east usa. USA 1 naval is what is used to convoy 97 eventually, subsequent round 2-4 subs to convoy the other spots or more naval if germany buys air.

UK 2-3 keep middle east italian free, support the 97 convoy, rounds 4-5 fly usa or uk air into russia. After shutting italy down supporting russia with some fighters is a no brainer. The russia battle is typically 5 rounds of shooting or so, 3-8 fighters make a huge difference.

[Young Grasshopper]

@cond1024:

Tried the G1 Barbarossa.  Baltic states went pretty bad but the Russian counter on east Poland went even worse. I captured Moscow on G5 and allies surrendered round 6.  It worked well enough to try again, but the element of surprise is gone on my opponent so it might not work as well.

That was my point all along, Moscow happens much sooner, but western allies can plan against it as early as turn 1. I’m thinking about a aircraft carrier + a Romanian minor IC G1, and hitting all channel boats, taking paris, and taking the three Russian territories instead of Yugo.

[Axisplaya]

If you save the money instead of buying that Mic for Rom on G1, then your Sealion threat remains credible. But if you buy that Mic, you’re going to see A LOT of scrambling in both sz 110 and 111, and that’s not what you want…

[Young Grasshopper]

@Axisplaya:

If you save the money instead of buying that Mic for Rom on G1, then your Sealion threat remains credible. But if you buy that Mic, you’re going to see A LOT of scrambling in both sz 110 and 111, and that’s not what you want…

Good point.

[Witt]

Does no one buy a destroyer on G1( with 3  transports?)That way Allies do not know which country you are going to attack on G2 or 3. And surely you would want to kill the Russian sub in the Baltic. I used to buy an AC on G1, but now you need to kill 5 AA  in UK too,  Sealion must be dead in the water. Russia on G2 must be only option left,if you have not attacked Russia on G1. As for scrambling do any Allied players not do? I would if I was them.