S03 Gamerman01 (allies +12) v JWW

[gamerman01]

5/6 on defending 2’s - you continue to be charmed
And yes, defending 2 hit rate is a significant indicator of luck.  In many battles, they are the only ones that matter.
At least there are no non-AA targets for the Luftwaffe  :roll:
Oh, and I guess I have Americans to pick up the money…

Nin - FTR (Sui)
Alg - INF, ARM (GBr)
BSt - 5 INF, ART (GBr)
Bul - 19 INF, ART (Pol)
Ukr - ARM (Pol)
FEq - 2 INF (Cng)
Cau - BMB (Ind)
Z5 - DD, CV (w/ US guest FTR) (Z3)
Z5 - FTR (NWE) 3 FTR (Cze) 2 on USSR, 2 on UK
Z12 - 2 FTR (NWE)

Collect 28, 28 on hand  :cry:

S3_JWW(x)_v_Gamerman01(12)_14d.AAM

[gamerman01]

Oh, and I do acknowledge the similar fortune I enjoyed on J14 in not losing a sub in Z59.  Now I have a chance to lose my California bomber trying to sink the Z62 fleet!  Kinda have to try, with 66% chance of sinking everything!  :evil:
I guess you assumed you were going to sink the sub!  :-D

[666]

@Gamerman01:

Oh, and I do acknowledge the similar fortune I enjoyed on J14 in not losing a sub in Z59.  Now I have a chance to lose my California bomber trying to sink the Z62 fleet!  Kinda have to try, with 66% chance of sinking everything!  :evil:
I guess you assumed you were going to sink the sub!  :-D

yes, I assumed I’d get the ss. I considered bringing back the sub into 62 but……

[666]

I 14 rpr 2 purch 4 inf spend 14 (save 0)

combat
#1 blk (2arm) v 2inf (ita) & 2 arm, fgt (fra)

dice….

blk aaRolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 11@1: (1)
if aa misses the fgt attacksRolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 11@3: (2)& 2 armRolls: 2@3; Total Hits: 12@3: (4, 1)2 infRolls: 2@1; Total Hits: 12@1: (4, 1)v 2 armRolls: 2@3; Total Hits: 12@3: (4, 3)

[666]

another 1 for 1 for ya….gotta count for something?

blk twlo fgt & inf
ncm:
fra 6 inf > ita
fra inf > nwe
fra 6 inf > ger
italy collects 15

S3_JWW(x)_v_Gamerman01(12)_14e.AAM

[gamerman01]

@JWW:

another 1 for 1 for ya….gotta count for something?

Sweet!  Yes, of course.

Probably time to update my records….  But first, America

[gamerman01]

@Gamerman01:

5/6 on defending 2’s - you continue to be charmed
And yes, defending 2 hit rate is a significant indicator of luck.  In many battles, they are the only ones that matter.

OK, I went ahead and updated my records on AA and defending 2’s - didn’t take long.

As usual, the larger the sample size, the closer to average the results are.  Defending 2’s are coming a little closer to odds.

Axis have faced a hit rate of .32867 on 143 attempts, which is almost exactly average.
Allies have faced a hit rate of .36771 on 223 rolls (largely because of horrific Russian offense allowing more defensive rolls), which is 8 hits above average (82 units lost compared to expected 74)

However, the Allies have enjoyed near AA immunity.  The 2/5 US bombers lost on US11 were the only losses.
Losing 2 air after 28 shots is about 2.5 less aircraft then expected (plus they came more recently, which is less devastating than losing a German bomber on G6).
Axis lost 3 air on 17 shots, almost exactly average.

So for the Allies, the bad luck on defending 2’s has been offset by good luck on AA fire
For the Axis, losses to defending 2’s and AA fire both have been almost exactly average.

Conclusion - Sometimes we each feel like we’re getting hosed, but in fact when we have suffered bad luck for a turn or two, it has just been evening out our good luck.  :-)

And now, back to our game in progress.

[gamerman01]

US14 with 42, buy 5 INF, 2 ARM, SS, FTR
China with 5 TT, get 2 INF

Combat moves -
Ger - 3 X SBR (Pol)
Lib - INF (Alg) 2 FTR (Z12) BMB (ECa)
NWE - 2 INF (GBr) 2-7, FTR (Pol) 3 FTR (Z5)
Fra - 2 INF (GBr) ART (Alg) (12-7) (3-7)
Z62 - SS (Z59) BMB (WUS)
Ala - INF (WCa) FTR (WUS) 2 BMB (ECa)
Cze - INF (Pol)

Ger AARolls: 3@1; Total Hits: 23@1: (1, 2, 1)
FraRolls: 1@1 2@2; Total Hits: 01@1: (5)2@2: (5, 4)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)

[gamerman01]

There goes my AA advantage
Ger SBRRolling 1:
(2)  
Fra2Rolls: 1@1 2@2; Total Hits: 11@1: (5)2@2: (6, 1)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[gamerman01]

For the record, I’m only 1 aircraft ahead of the game now on AA….  :-)

NWERolls: 2@1 4@3; Total Hits: 22@1: (2, 5)4@3: (1, 4, 5, 3)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)

[gamerman01]

Z62Rolls: 1@2 1@4; Total Hits: 11@2: (4)1@4: (2)Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (5, 2)

[gamerman01]

Come onnnnn….  Let’s speed this game up a little.
Z62 round 2Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 11@4: (4)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[gamerman01]

That’s what I’m talking about
AlaRolls: 1@1 1@3 2@4; Total Hits: 21@1: (5)1@3: (4)2@4: (3, 1)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[gamerman01]

LibRolls: 1@1 2@3; Total Hits: 01@1: (5)2@3: (5, 5)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[gamerman01]

Lib2Rolls: 1@1 2@3; Total Hits: 21@1: (5)2@3: (3, 1)Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[gamerman01]

Sui - BMB (Z62)
ECa - 3 INF (EUS) ARM (WUS) 2 BMB (Ala)
Bul - ARM (Pol)
EPl - ARM (Kar)
Kar - INF (Fin) ARM (Nwy)
BSt - INF (GBr) INF (Nwy)
FEq - INF (Cng)
Alg - 2 FTR (Lib)
Z7 - CV (2 UK FTR) 2 DD, CV (Z12) 4 FTR (NWE) DD, CV (Z5)
Mid - 2 FTR (WUS)
WCa - FTR (Ala)
Z52 - SS (Z56)
Z59 - SS (Z56)
Z58 - SS (Z65)
Z57 - SS (Z56)
Z1 - TP (Z2)
Z9 - TP (Z12)
Eve - BMB (Ger)

Place 2 INF (Sui)
Place 5 INF (EUS)
Place 2 ARM, FTR, SS (WUS)
Collect 58 + 1 saved = 59 on hand

S3_JWW(x)_v_Gamerman01(12)_14f.AAM

[666]

Missing that ss last rd really hurt

[gamerman01]

@JWW:

Missing that ss last rd really hurt

2/3 Berlin AA takes a lot of sting out
Factory damaged for 2 points in exchange for 2 bombers!

[666]

G 15 rpr 2 purch arm & 5 inf spend 22 (save 1)

combat
#1 fra (aa,2inf, art) v 3inf, art & 2 fgt (ger)
#2 nwe (inf) v 2inf & 2 fgt (ger)
#3 cze (inf) v 2inf & 2 fgt (ger)
#4 pol (inf) v 2 inf, 2 fgt (ger)

[666]

@Gamerman01:

@JWW:

Missing that ss last rd really hurt

2/3 Berlin AA takes a lot of sting out
Factory damaged for 2 points in exchange for 2 bombers!

lost 37 ipc worth of ships…i think…sbr an IC is the risk you take. didn’t think I needed to go heavy attacking the lone ss. That was my mistake…