Battle of France
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fhtR1
att
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hitsdef
7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hitsR2
att
4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hitsdef
2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hitsR3
att
1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hitsdef
2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits75% battle for Germany
That reduces the combined probability from 48% to 36%. And if Sealion has a 70% chance IF all battles succeed, then this reduces to 25%
NCM
Ger to West Ger
6 inf, 4 art
South Ger to West Ger
4 inf
South Ger to Ger
1 art
sz113 to sz115
1 TT (load from Pol 2 inf to Fin)
Rom to Bulg
1 inf
Nor to Fin
2 inf
sz111 West Ger
1 tac, 1 bmb
sz110 to West Ger
2 tac
sz109 to sz112
1 fht
Place
sz112
1 CV, 1 TT, 1 sb
Collect
$64
What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?
Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).
Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect
If you’re that curious, type it into a calculator yourself. Jim has done all the real legwork by providing the battle odds. And Paris WASN’T included, as I said, “per posted odds” and the battle of France had not been posted yet. With Paris, as of that posting, odds are 36%. And as he posted afterwards, odds decrease with each additional battle.
-begin statistics lesson-
It’s a simple product of all statistical outcomes. For example, if you’re fighting two battles that are each 50% chance of success, you’ll win both 1/4 of the time (.5 x .5 = .25).
It’s around 50% for complete success in all seazones. However, just because you win one battle, it doesn’t reduce your chances in the next battle. Each chance of success is fully and completely independent. You could roll all battles except France and win and you’re still facing a 75% success in France as your last battle which is still good odds for success. The combined chance of success means that if you win in France, there was a 36% chance you’d arrive at that point.
Here it is. The only real ones that need to be won are sz110, 111, 112 and France.
The rest can be mutual annihilation.
More often than not, I would think you will get it to look close to this. The only one I don’t like is France.
I said before that it is not as good as the India Crush, but I like this the best.
Tinker with it and make it your own. You could forget attacking Nor Bor and use teh units in France to make that a sure thing.
Then you have a 60% chance of winning all 4 of those battles. Add to that the 70% chance of battle of London suceeding, you get 42%
You have to take into account the number of dice you are throwing as well if you want to be technical, as each throw is its own event. Also, the more dice you through in a battel, the more liely the outcome will be normalized.
Are we looking at counters to this or the odds? I’m here to look at counters.
It’s depressing to see the odds on the UK navy in G1. If balance really needs to be looked at I vote for a return of the “each side gets 12 IPC pre-game to spend” that we saw in the original Europe. Let’s say Germany/Italy has to place theirs first. It would throw a monkey wrench in the “always do this” strategies.
Italy might buy a cruiser to try to save her fleet. Then France gets four more inf! Germany would be hard pressed to devote it’s air force to the destruction of the UK navy in that scenario. There’s alot of different variations possible.
You have to take into account the number of dice you are throwing as well if you want to be technical, as each throw is its own event. Also, the more dice you through in a battel, the more liely the outcome will be normalized.
Are we looking at counters to this or the odds? I’m here to look at counters.
If something has a less than 50% chance and losing that set of moves will lose the game, then there need not be a counter.
Then fire up a real game.
Not to mention, I’m not locked into the tactic until I have to buy the 9 TTs.
Forgot the CV on the map as well.
C&H-liker
If Germany can expect to see success of a sealion in about half the games by round 3, 42% isn’t low odds, it’s actually very good odds considering the number of independent battles involved. In A&A I’d take almost ANY battle with a 75% chance of success (especially, as with G1 there are NO good counterattack options against these individual attacks), and if it meant a capital capture on the 3rd round, 70% is huge.
And even if one of the attacks fails, Germany hasn’t especially wasted anything if it can get past the first round (especially as the first turn buy is still fairly strong, strong enough to force Britain’s hand). If Germany loses a critical battle in G1, it’s unlikely Germany will try for a Sealion, but it’s not in bad shape for Russia or helping in Africa.
But if Germany gets past the round 1 gambit, the UK will probably lose to the Sealion, which means Germany should more often than not start with those moves, and based on the 60% chance of winning the attacks proposed by Jim, will more often than not invest in a navy for G3 sealion.
In about half the games, Germany will pull off a sealion per that strat. In the other games their G2 is as strong as pretty much any other and they’re not locked into anything.
Britain needs a strat to reduce the likelyhood of the 70% sealion G3 sealion, not praying for Germany to get diced on G1. Or we need verification that the Sealion strategy doesn’t have enough momentum for Russia later. Right now, @ 42%, any smart German player will do that, because I suspect there isn’t a higher percentage of success that nets THAT much for Germany in ANY other combination of moves.
42% is HUGE. not small.
I’ll take you up on it Jim, not low luck but dice. I have some ideas, such as SZ 113 being not safe for your transports. Other than that I’m not 100% sure of the counters.
The reason I say dice is simply that some strats that are broken in low luck, are not broken in dice due to odds of one or two important close battles. While in the India Crush scenario this is unimportant due to the overwhelming odds, in the case of the J1 Pearl strike in oob setup it does play a huge role, to use examples. As far as counters go I’m not really sure. Does the US have to forces to liberate? Can russia get nutty? Its all up in the air a bit.
Lastly, I wouldn’t be the quickest player, mostly on weekends, usually 1 turn a day during the week but not always. Go ahead and start one/post map if you like.
Let me finish up a game and I’ll go w/ you.
I’m gone for a couple days, so by Sunday likely.
I’ll tell you right now, though, I’m building the TTs in sz112. I will have a lone TT in sz113 after G2 only.
I assumed as much, I have ideas though. Possibly not good ones but I do have them.
Also, Calvin,
I will try not to come across as pushy or defensive in the future. I like playing you, and look forward to friendly games again. You didn’t say I was this way, but reading my posts, I certainly think I was.
Also, Calvin,
I will try not to come across as pushy or defensive in the future. I like playing you, and look forward to friendly games again. You didn’t say I was this way, but reading my posts, I certainly think I was.
No worries, anyone would be defensive when their ideas that they worked hard on to develop are dismissed in a single post
anyone would be defensive when their ideas that they worked hard on to develop are dismissed in a single post
:wink:
In either case, whether you are a believer or not, those are my openers.
I have no doubt someone out there will tinker with it. Maybe forgo Nor Bor for better odds in France. Maybe buy 2 sb instead of a TT and sb - save your $.
In G2, buy 9 TTs and place them in sz112. Use the TT in sz115 and bring it back to sz113 and drop off the art and inf in Ger to Nor (They will go to Fin on G3)
In G3, attack with 11 loaded TTs. 11 inf, 4 art, 7 tanks (8 if you survived with 5 in France) and all remaining planes. If UK bought ships or something other than inf and art, you can get away with going in with less and transport them to the Russian front or something. Ships to sz109, TTs to sz110 so you can get stuff off UK/West Ger and into Pol right away.
Good Luck!!
