VF (Germany) vs. DoMan (Allies) | Original Europe, Game 6 - Balance 3.0

[VictoryFirst]

@DoManMacgee

The balance 3.0 rules include:

• No Special Cash Advance (SCA) for Germany
• One German sub from Bay of Biscay removed from starting setup
• One German infantry from Germany removed from starting setup

Allied bid: 4 infantry in Ukraine

[VictoryFirst]

TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 1

TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved

Game History

Round: 1

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 13 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone: 1 submarine
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Germany: 1 infantry
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        1 submarine moved from Denmark Strait Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone
              Germans take British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from British
        1 submarine moved from British Convoy 4 Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from Halifax Sea Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from Mid-Atlantic Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Northern Italy to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 battleship, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Malta
        1 submarine moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from Azores Sea Sea Zone to British Convoy 3 Sea Zone
              Germans take British Convoy 3 Sea Zone from British
        1 submarine moved from British Convoy 3 Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
        1 submarine and 1 transport moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from Barents Sea Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from Germany to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Norway to North Sea Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Poland to North Sea Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Germany to North Sea Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Germany to English Channel Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from France to English Channel Sea Zone
        1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States
        1 armour moved from Poland to East Poland
        3 infantry moved from Poland to East Poland
        1 armour moved from Rumania to Bessarabia
        1 armour moved from Hungary to Bessarabia
        1 armour moved from Germany to East Poland
        3 infantry moved from Rumania to Bessarabia
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Hungary to Bessarabia
        1 infantry moved from Hungary to East Poland

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Davis Strait Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 3 submarines
            British defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 transport in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                1 transport owned by the British lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 6 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 6 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
            British win with 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is -16
            Casualties for Germans: 3 submarines
            Casualties for British: 1 transport
        Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 1 bomber and 3 submarines
            British defend with 1 destroyer and 2 transports
                Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 2 transports in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                2 transports owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            Germans win with 1 bomber and 3 submarines remaining. Battle score for attacker is 28
            Casualties for British: 1 destroyer and 2 transports
        Battle in Bessarabia
            Germans attack with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 5 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 armour and 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 2 armour, 1 artillery and 5 infantry in Bessarabia, round 2 : 2/8 hits, 2,33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 1 infantry in Bessarabia, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Bessarabia
                1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 armour owned by the Russians lost in Bessarabia
            Germans win, taking Bessarabia from Russians with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 1 armour and 1 infantry
        Battle in East Poland
            Germans attack with 2 armour and 4 infantry
            Russians defend with 4 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 4 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 2/6 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 4 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in East Poland
                2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland
                Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 3 infantry in East Poland, round 3 : 2/5 hits, 1,50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in East Poland, round 3 : 2/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in East Poland
                2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland
            Germans win, taking East Poland from Russians with 2 armour and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 4 infantry
        Battle in Baltic States
            Germans attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            Russians defend with 3 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 1,50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 4 : 1/3 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 4 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 1 artillery in Baltic States, round 5 : 0/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 1 artillery in Baltic States, round 6 : 1/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 6 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
            Germans win, taking Baltic States from Russians with 1 armour remaining. Battle score for attacker is -4
            Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 3 infantry
        Battle in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
            British defend with 1 destroyer
                Germans roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the Germans lost in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
                1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
            Germans win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Germans: 1 destroyer
            Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
        Battle in North Sea Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 3 fighters, 2 submarines and 1 transport
            British defend with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
            Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British
                Germans roll dice for 3 fighters and 1 transport in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,50 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Germans and 1 transport owned by the Germans lost in North Sea Sea Zone
                1 destroyer owned by the British, 1 transport owned by the British and 1 battleship owned by the British lost in North Sea Sea Zone
            Germans win with 3 fighters and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 28
            Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine and 1 transport
            Casualties for British: 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
        Battle in Malta
            Germans attack with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
            British defend with 1 fighter
                Germans roll dice for 1 battleship in Malta, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 fighter in Malta, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the British lost in Malta
            Germans win, taking Malta from British with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
            Casualties for British: 1 fighter
        Battle in English Channel Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 2 fighters and 1 submarine
            British defend with 1 destroyer
                Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in English Channel Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 2 fighters in English Channel Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in English Channel Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in English Channel Sea Zone
                1 destroyer owned by the British lost in English Channel Sea Zone
            Germans win with 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
            Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine
            Casualties for British: 1 destroyer

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        2 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Rumania
        2 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Hungary
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Greece to Yugoslavia
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Czechoslovakia to Poland
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Austria to Hungary
        2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
        1 armour moved from Germany to Poland
        2 armour moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Poland
        1 infantry moved from Denmark to Germany
        1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to Austria
        4 infantry moved from Eastern France to Germany
        3 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
        2 armour moved from France to Germany
        1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from France to Netherlands-Belgium
        2 fighters moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium
        1 bomber moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Germany
        2 infantry moved from Norway to Finland
        2 fighters moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Finland
        1 fighter moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Norway
        1 infantry moved from Morocco to Algeria
        1 fighter moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Algeria
        2 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy
        2 armour moved from Northern Italy to Hungary
        1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia

    Place Units - Germans
        13 infantry placed in Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 42 PUs; end with 43 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : 2,33
Germans regular : -1,17
British regular : 0,00

Savegame

[DoManMacgee]

@VictoryFirst Game History

Round: 1

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        1 infantry moved from Iran to Caucasus
        1 bomber moved from Moscow to Baltic States
        1 infantry moved from Leningrad to Baltic States
        1 fighter moved from Moscow to East Poland
        1 artillery moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to East Poland
        1 artillery moved from Belorussia to East Poland
        1 infantry moved from Belorussia to East Poland
        1 submarine and 1 transport moved from White Sea Sea Zone to North Atlantic Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Vyborg to Leningrad
        2 infantry moved from Karelia to Leningrad
        1 infantry moved from Leningrad to Belorussia
        1 armour and 3 infantry moved from Archangel to Russia
        1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Siberia to Russia
        2 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from Russia to Belorussia
        1 armour and 4 infantry moved from Moscow to Belorussia
        1 armour and 3 infantry moved from Turkestan to Belorussia
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Belorussia
        8 infantry moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Belorussia
        1 armour moved from Caucasus to Belorussia
        3 infantry moved from Caucasus to Stalingrad

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in East Poland
            Russians attack with 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 1 infantry
            Germans defend with 2 armour and 1 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 1 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 1 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in East Poland
                Russians roll dice for 2 artilleries and 1 fighter in East Poland, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 2 armour in East Poland, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                2 armour owned by the Germans lost in East Poland
            Russians win, taking East Poland from Germans with 2 artilleries and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 10
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 2 armour and 1 infantry
        Battle in Baltic States
            Russians attack with 1 bomber and 1 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 armour
                Russians roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Baltic States, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
                1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
            Russians win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 1 armour

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        1 bomber moved from Baltic States to Leningrad
        1 fighter moved from East Poland to Leningrad
        1 aaGun moved from Archangel to Russia
        1 aaGun moved from Moscow to Belorussia

    Place Units - Russians
        8 infantry placed in Leningrad

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 23 PUs; end with 23 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : 0.00
Russians regular : 0.50

[DoManMacgee]

@VictoryFirst British attack Germans in Celtic Sea SZ:

[dice 3d6<=3]
[dice 1d6<=4]

[dicebot]

3d6<=3: 6, 6, 5; Hits: 0
1d6<=4: 6; Hits: 0

[DoManMacgee]

@VictoryFirst Game History

Round: 1

    Purchase Units - British
        British buy nothing; Remaining resources: 25 PUs; 

    Combat Move - British
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        1 destroyer moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Syria to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Palestine to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Iraq to Syria
        2 infantry moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Egypt
        1 armour moved from Egypt to Libya
              British take Libya from Germans
        1 armour moved from Libya to Egypt
        1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        EDIT: 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Halifax Sea Sea Zone

    Combat - British

    Non Combat Move - British
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        EDIT: 1 destroyer moved from Halifax Sea Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        EDIT: 2 fighters moved from Halifax Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom
        1 bomber moved from Halifax Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom

    Turn Complete - British
        British collect 16 PUs; end with 41 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

[DoManMacgee]

@VictoryFirst Trying again with the Americans:

[dice 2d6<=3]
[dice 1d6<=4]

[dicebot]

2d6<=3: 4, 2; Hits: 1
1d6<=4: 5; Hits: 0

[DoManMacgee]

@VictoryFirst The German sub fires back:

[dice 1d6<=2]

[dicebot]

1d6<=2: 5; Hits: 0

[DoManMacgee]

@VictoryFirst Game History

Round: 1

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 2 fighters and 2 submarines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        Turning on Edit Mode
        1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from United States to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 destroyer moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone

    Combat - Americans
        EDIT: Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            EDIT: British loiter and taunt; Americans attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 transport
            EDIT: Germans defend with 3 submarines
                EDIT: 2/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                EDIT: 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
            EDIT: 1 destroyer owned by the Americans and 1 transport owned by the Americans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            EDIT: 3 submarines owned by the Germans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            EDIT: Americans win
            EDIT: Battle casualty summary: Battle score (TUV change) for attacker is 4
        EDIT: Recording Battle Statistics

    Non Combat Move - Americans
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Celtic Sea Sea Zone: 2 submarines
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Celtic Sea Sea Zone: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom

    Place Units - Americans
        2 submarines placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
        2 fighters placed in United States

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Americans collect 40 PUs; end with 40 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

AAE-modified-game4-A1.tsvg

[VictoryFirst]

@DoManMacgee

I wanted to calculate the statistics here but I realized I have been calculating the sub battles incorrectly. When subs are NOT hit, they submerge and don’t fire back. This is not represented in the battle calculator, which assumes the subs do fire back. Fortunately you can calculate it by hand however for that I need to calculate the odds for 1, 2, and 3 hits and I am not sure how to do that.

UK attacked with 2 F, 1 DD and 1 B.

The chance for exactly one hit would be (3/6)^3 * (4/6) + (3/6)^3 * (2/6) ?

[VictoryFirst]

Oh actually I think it should be

(3/6)(3/6)(3/6)(2/6)3 + (3/6)(3/6)(3/6)*(4/6)

[VictoryFirst]

TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 2

TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved

Game History

Round: 2

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 14 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 submarine moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
              Germans take U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone from Americans
        1 submarine moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from Germany to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Tunisia to Libya
              Germans take Libya from British
        1 fighter moved from Algeria to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
        1 battleship moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Finland to North Atlantic Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Norway to North Atlantic Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia
              Germans take Karelia from Russians

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 2 submarines
            British defend with 1 destroyer; Americans defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 fighters in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 2 destroyers and 1 transport in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                2 submarines owned by the Germans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                1 transport owned by the Americans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 fighters in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 2 destroyers in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 destroyer owned by the Americans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            Germans win with 1 bomber and 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 16
            Casualties for Germans: 2 submarines
            Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
            Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
        Battle in North Atlantic Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 3 fighters
            Russians defend with 1 submarine and 1 transport
            1 submarine owned by the Russians submerged
                Germans roll dice for 3 fighters in North Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 transport in North Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
                1 transport owned by the Russians lost in North Atlantic Sea Zone
            Germans win with 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for Russians: 1 transport
        Battle in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 1 battleship and 1 fighter
            British defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                Germans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 fighter in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 transport in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                1 battleship owned by the Germans lost in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
            1 fighter owned by the Germans retreated
            British win with 1 destroyer and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is -24
            Casualties for Germans: 1 battleship
        Battle in Libya

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Changing ownership of Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians to Germans
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        1 fighter moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Crete
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Malta to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Libya
        1 infantry moved from Algeria to Tunisia
        1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium
        1 bomber moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
        3 fighters moved from North Atlantic Sea Zone to Finland
        2 infantry moved from Norway to Finland
        1 armour moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine S.S.R.
        1 armour moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Bessarabia
        2 infantry moved from Rumania to Bessarabia
        2 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Hungary to Bessarabia
        2 armour moved from Germany to Poland
        21 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
        1 aaGun moved from Germany to Poland
        1 aaGun moved from Austria to Germany
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Rumania
        1 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Northern Italy

    Place Units - Germans
        14 infantry placed in Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 44 PUs; end with 45 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : -0,17
Russians regular : -0,17
Germans regular : -2,67
British regular : 1,33

Savegame

[DoManMacgee]

@VictoryFirst It’s worse, actually. UK scored 0 hits in their attack with 3 @ 3 and 1 @ 4:
(1/2)^3*(1/3) = ~4.125%

Expanding that to include the US attackers and the fact that in total only one hit was scored between all of them would be more difficult. I could probably do it but will need a bit to hash it out.

[VictoryFirst]

@DoManMacgee

Yeah so what I wanted to calculate is the average TUV swing of the battle. For that, you would multiply the TUV swing of each scenario from the German perspective with the chance of that scenario coming up.

So to give an example, I will use this notation X / Y where X is the number of hits that the British scored and Y the number of German hits.

0 / 0
This would have a TUV swing of 0 so no need to look at this.

0 / 1 would be 4.125% * 33% = 1.4%
TUV swing: +12
1.4% * 12 = 0.17 IPC

1 / 0 not sure how to calculate this chance
TUV swing: -8

1 / 1 something times 33%
TUV swing: +4

2 / 0

etc.

Probably the best way to do this is to write a program that rolls these dice 10000 times and then let it add up the number of times a certain number of hits has been scored. Or even better, let it simulate the combat entirely and calculate the average TUV swing from there. However right now I am too tired to work on that lol.

[DoManMacgee]

@VictoryFirst said in VF (Germany) vs. DoMan (Allies) | Original Europe, Game 6 - Balance 3.0:

(3/6)(3/6)(3/6)(2/6)3 + (3/6)(3/6)(3/6)*(4/6)

That is correct for exactly one hit for just the UK stuff. To add in the USA stuff, it becomes a bit more involved:

UK Force: 3 @ 3, 1 @ 4
US Force: 2 @ 3, 1 @ 4
Total force: 5@3, 2 @ 4

So to expand it, we have:
(ODDS OF 1 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 0 @4 HIT) + (ODDS OF 0 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 1 @4 HIT)
(5*(1/2)^5 * (1/3)^2) + (1/2)^5 * 2*(2/3)(1/3)
.0016/9 + .013889 = .0141 = 1.41%

[DoManMacgee]

@VictoryFirst Game History

Round: 2

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Leningrad to Karelia
        1 artillery and 6 infantry moved from Russia to Karelia
        1 infantry moved from Caucasus to Stalingrad
        3 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Belorussia
        1 armour moved from Belorussia to Baltic States
              Russians take Baltic States from Germans
        1 armour moved from Baltic States to Belorussia
        2 artilleries moved from East Poland to Belorussia
        11 infantry moved from Leningrad to Belorussia
        1 submarine moved from North Atlantic Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone
              British take British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from Germans

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in Karelia
            Russians attack with 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 6 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 6 infantry in Karelia, round 2 : 0/9 hits, 2.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Karelia, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 6 infantry in Karelia, round 3 : 4/9 hits, 2.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Karelia, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Karelia
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Karelia
            Russians win, taking Karelia from Germans with 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Karelia to Belorussia

    Place Units - Russians
        7 infantry placed in Leningrad

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 22 PUs; end with 24 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : 0.33
Russians regular : -1.33

Game History

Round: 2

    Purchase Units - British
        British buy 2 carriers; Remaining resources: 5 PUs; 

    Combat Move - British
        1 infantry moved from Syria to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Libya
        1 destroyer moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
        1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Egypt to Libya
        1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Leningrad

    Combat - British
        Battle in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            British attack with 1 destroyer
            Germans defend with 1 transport
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 transport in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 transport in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 transport in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                1 transport owned by the Germans lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            British win with 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for Germans: 1 transport
        Battle in Libya
            British attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 armour, 2 artilleries and 2 infantry
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Libya, round 2 : 2/6 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 2 artilleries and 2 infantry in Libya, round 2 : 0/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Libya
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Libya, round 3 : 0/6 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 2 artilleries in Libya, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Libya, round 4 : 0/6 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 2 artilleries in Libya, round 4 : 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                2 infantry owned by the British lost in Libya
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Libya, round 5 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 2 artilleries in Libya, round 5 : 0/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the Germans lost in Libya
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Libya, round 6 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 1 artillery in Libya, round 6 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Libya
                1 artillery owned by the Germans lost in Libya
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Libya, round 7 : 2/3 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Libya, round 7 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Libya
                1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Libya
            British win, taking Libya from Germans with 1 armour and 1 artillery remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Germans: 1 armour, 2 artilleries and 2 infantry
            Casualties for British: 4 infantry

    Non Combat Move - British

    Place Units - British
        2 carriers placed in Atlantic Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - British
        British collect 21 PUs; end with 26 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : -2.17
British regular : -3.33

[DoManMacgee]

@VictoryFirst Re: TUV calculator:
I can work on something for this later this week or this weekend. I’ll let you know.

[DoManMacgee]

@VictoryFirst Update to this. The calculator on this very site (http://calc.axisandallies.org/) already does most of what you are looking for (“simulates combat 10,000 times and checks number of times a certain number of hits have been scored”). You might want to look into using that unless there is some other functionality you need.