VF (Germany) vs. DoMan (Allies) | Original Europe, Game 6 - Balance 3.0


  • @DoManMacgee

    The balance 3.0 rules include:

    • No Special Cash Advance (SCA) for Germany
    • One German sub from Bay of Biscay removed from starting setup
    • One German infantry from Germany removed from starting setup

    Allied bid: 4 infantry in Ukraine


  • TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 1

    TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved

    Game History

    Round: 1
    
        Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 13 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Germans
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Germany: 1 infantry
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 submarine moved from Denmark Strait Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone
                  Germans take British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from British
            1 submarine moved from British Convoy 4 Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Halifax Sea Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Mid-Atlantic Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Northern Italy to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 battleship, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from Tyrrhenian Sea Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Malta
            1 submarine moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Azores Sea Sea Zone to British Convoy 3 Sea Zone
                  Germans take British Convoy 3 Sea Zone from British
            1 submarine moved from British Convoy 3 Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
            1 submarine and 1 transport moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Barents Sea Sea Zone to North Sea Sea Zone
            1 submarine moved from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Germany to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Norway to North Sea Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Poland to North Sea Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Germany to North Sea Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Germany to English Channel Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from France to English Channel Sea Zone
            1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States
            1 armour moved from Poland to East Poland
            3 infantry moved from Poland to East Poland
            1 armour moved from Rumania to Bessarabia
            1 armour moved from Hungary to Bessarabia
            1 armour moved from Germany to East Poland
            3 infantry moved from Rumania to Bessarabia
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Hungary to Bessarabia
            1 infantry moved from Hungary to East Poland
    
        Combat - Germans
            Battle in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 3 submarines
                British defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                    Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 transport in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                    1 transport owned by the British lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                    Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 5 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 6 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Davis Strait Sea Zone, round 6 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in Davis Strait Sea Zone
                British win with 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is -16
                Casualties for Germans: 3 submarines
                Casualties for British: 1 transport
            Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 1 bomber and 3 submarines
                British defend with 1 destroyer and 2 transports
                    Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 bomber in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 2 transports in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                    2 transports owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                    Germans roll dice for 3 submarines in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans win with 1 bomber and 3 submarines remaining. Battle score for attacker is 28
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer and 2 transports
            Battle in Bessarabia
                Germans attack with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 5 infantry
                Russians defend with 1 armour and 1 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 2 armour, 1 artillery and 5 infantry in Bessarabia, round 2 : 2/8 hits, 2,33 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 armour and 1 infantry in Bessarabia, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Bessarabia
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 armour owned by the Russians lost in Bessarabia
                Germans win, taking Bessarabia from Russians with 2 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
                Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 1 armour and 1 infantry
            Battle in East Poland
                Germans attack with 2 armour and 4 infantry
                Russians defend with 4 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 4 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 2/6 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 4 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in East Poland
                    2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland
                    Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 3 infantry in East Poland, round 3 : 2/5 hits, 1,50 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in East Poland, round 3 : 2/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in East Poland
                    2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland
                Germans win, taking East Poland from Russians with 2 armour and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
                Casualties for Germans: 3 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 4 infantry
            Battle in Baltic States
                Germans attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                Russians defend with 3 infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 1/5 hits, 1,50 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 3 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 4 : 1/3 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in Baltic States, round 4 : 1/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 1 artillery in Baltic States, round 5 : 0/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 1 artillery in Baltic States, round 6 : 1/2 hits, 0,83 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 6 : 1/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    1 artillery owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
                Germans win, taking Baltic States from Russians with 1 armour remaining. Battle score for attacker is -4
                Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery and 3 infantry
                Casualties for Russians: 3 infantry
            Battle in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 1 destroyer and 1 fighter
                British defend with 1 destroyer
                    Germans roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 fighter in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the Germans lost in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
                    1 destroyer owned by the British lost in Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone
                Germans win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Germans: 1 destroyer
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
            Battle in North Sea Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 3 fighters, 2 submarines and 1 transport
                British defend with 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                    Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the British
                    Germans roll dice for 3 fighters and 1 transport in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,50 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport in North Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,33 expected hits
                    1 submarine owned by the Germans and 1 transport owned by the Germans lost in North Sea Sea Zone
                    1 destroyer owned by the British, 1 transport owned by the British and 1 battleship owned by the British lost in North Sea Sea Zone
                Germans win with 3 fighters and 1 submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 28
                Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine and 1 transport
                Casualties for British: 1 battleship, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
            Battle in Malta
                Germans attack with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                British defend with 1 fighter
                    Germans roll dice for 1 battleship in Malta, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 fighter in Malta, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    1 fighter owned by the British lost in Malta
                Germans win, taking Malta from British with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
                Casualties for British: 1 fighter
            Battle in English Channel Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 2 fighters and 1 submarine
                British defend with 1 destroyer
                    Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in English Channel Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,33 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 2 fighters in English Channel Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer in English Channel Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0,50 expected hits
                    1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in English Channel Sea Zone
                    1 destroyer owned by the British lost in English Channel Sea Zone
                Germans win with 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
                Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
    
        Non Combat Move - Germans
            2 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Rumania
            2 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Hungary
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Greece to Yugoslavia
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Czechoslovakia to Poland
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Austria to Hungary
            2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
            1 armour moved from Germany to Poland
            2 armour moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Poland
            1 infantry moved from Denmark to Germany
            1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to Austria
            4 infantry moved from Eastern France to Germany
            3 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
            2 armour moved from France to Germany
            1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from France to Netherlands-Belgium
            2 fighters moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium
            1 bomber moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Germany
            2 infantry moved from Norway to Finland
            2 fighters moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Finland
            1 fighter moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Norway
            1 infantry moved from Morocco to Algeria
            1 fighter moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Algeria
            2 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy
            2 armour moved from Northern Italy to Hungary
            1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
    
        Place Units - Germans
            13 infantry placed in Germany
    
        Turn Complete - Germans
            Germans collect 42 PUs; end with 43 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Russians regular : 2,33
    Germans regular : -1,17
    British regular : 0,00
    

    Savegame


  • @VictoryFirst Game History

    Round: 1
    
        Purchase Units - Russians
            Russians buy 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Russians
            1 infantry moved from Iran to Caucasus
            1 bomber moved from Moscow to Baltic States
            1 infantry moved from Leningrad to Baltic States
            1 fighter moved from Moscow to East Poland
            1 artillery moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to East Poland
            1 artillery moved from Belorussia to East Poland
            1 infantry moved from Belorussia to East Poland
            1 submarine and 1 transport moved from White Sea Sea Zone to North Atlantic Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Vyborg to Leningrad
            2 infantry moved from Karelia to Leningrad
            1 infantry moved from Leningrad to Belorussia
            1 armour and 3 infantry moved from Archangel to Russia
            1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Siberia to Russia
            2 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from Russia to Belorussia
            1 armour and 4 infantry moved from Moscow to Belorussia
            1 armour and 3 infantry moved from Turkestan to Belorussia
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Belorussia
            8 infantry moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Belorussia
            1 armour moved from Caucasus to Belorussia
            3 infantry moved from Caucasus to Stalingrad
    
        Combat - Russians
            Battle in East Poland
                Russians attack with 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 1 infantry
                Germans defend with 2 armour and 1 infantry
                    Russians roll dice for 2 artilleries, 1 fighter and 1 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 1 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in East Poland
                    Russians roll dice for 2 artilleries and 1 fighter in East Poland, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 2 armour in East Poland, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                    2 armour owned by the Germans lost in East Poland
                Russians win, taking East Poland from Germans with 2 artilleries and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 10
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Germans: 2 armour and 1 infantry
            Battle in Baltic States
                Russians attack with 1 bomber and 1 infantry
                Germans defend with 1 armour
                    Russians roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Baltic States, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
                    1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Baltic States
                Russians win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
                Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
                Casualties for Germans: 1 armour
    
        Non Combat Move - Russians
            1 bomber moved from Baltic States to Leningrad
            1 fighter moved from East Poland to Leningrad
            1 aaGun moved from Archangel to Russia
            1 aaGun moved from Moscow to Belorussia
    
        Place Units - Russians
            8 infantry placed in Leningrad
    
        Turn Complete - Russians
            Russians collect 23 PUs; end with 23 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Germans regular : 0.00
    Russians regular : 0.50
    

  • @VictoryFirst British attack Germans in Celtic Sea SZ:

    764b74de-f8ce-4f10-a372-a9826b177b5f-image.png

    [dice 3d6<=3]
    [dice 1d6<=4]


  • 3d6<=3: 6, 6, 5; Hits: 0
    1d6<=4: 6; Hits: 0


  • @VictoryFirst Game History

    Round: 1
    
        Purchase Units - British
            British buy nothing; Remaining resources: 25 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - British
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 destroyer moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Syria to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Palestine to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Iraq to Syria
            2 infantry moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Egypt
            1 armour moved from Egypt to Libya
                  British take Libya from Germans
            1 armour moved from Libya to Egypt
            1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            EDIT: 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 2 fighters moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Halifax Sea Sea Zone
    
        Combat - British
    
        Non Combat Move - British
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            EDIT: 1 destroyer moved from Halifax Sea Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            EDIT: 2 fighters moved from Halifax Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom
            1 bomber moved from Halifax Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom
    
        Turn Complete - British
            British collect 16 PUs; end with 41 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :


  • @VictoryFirst Trying again with the Americans:

    e7331e41-7348-404f-9a76-8f7b1208854e-image.png

    [dice 2d6<=3]
    [dice 1d6<=4]


  • 2d6<=3: 4, 2; Hits: 1
    1d6<=4: 5; Hits: 0


  • @VictoryFirst The German sub fires back:

    [dice 1d6<=2]


  • 1d6<=2: 5; Hits: 0


  • @VictoryFirst Game History

    Round: 1
    
        Purchase Units - Americans
            Americans buy 2 fighters and 2 submarines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Americans
            Turning on Edit Mode
            1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from United States to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 transport moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
    
        Combat - Americans
            EDIT: Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                EDIT: British loiter and taunt; Americans attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 transport
                EDIT: Germans defend with 3 submarines
                    EDIT: 2/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                    EDIT: 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                EDIT: 1 destroyer owned by the Americans and 1 transport owned by the Americans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                EDIT: 3 submarines owned by the Germans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                EDIT: Americans win
                EDIT: Battle casualty summary: Battle score (TUV change) for attacker is 4
            EDIT: Recording Battle Statistics
    
        Non Combat Move - Americans
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Celtic Sea Sea Zone: 2 submarines
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Celtic Sea Sea Zone: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom
    
        Place Units - Americans
            2 submarines placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
            2 fighters placed in United States
    
        Turn Complete - Americans
            Americans collect 40 PUs; end with 40 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    AAE-modified-game4-A1.tsvg


  • @DoManMacgee

    I wanted to calculate the statistics here but I realized I have been calculating the sub battles incorrectly. When subs are NOT hit, they submerge and don’t fire back. This is not represented in the battle calculator, which assumes the subs do fire back. Fortunately you can calculate it by hand however for that I need to calculate the odds for 1, 2, and 3 hits and I am not sure how to do that.

    UK attacked with 2 F, 1 DD and 1 B.

    The chance for exactly one hit would be (3/6)^3 * (4/6) + (3/6)^3 * (2/6) ?


  • Oh actually I think it should be

    (3/6)(3/6)(3/6)(2/6)3 + (3/6)(3/6)(3/6)*(4/6)


  • TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 2

    TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved

    Game History

    Round: 2
    
        Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 14 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
    
        Combat Move - Germans
            1 submarine moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
                  Germans take U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone from Americans
            1 submarine moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            2 fighters moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from Germany to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
            1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Tunisia to Libya
                  Germans take Libya from British
            1 fighter moved from Algeria to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
            1 battleship moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
            2 fighters moved from Finland to North Atlantic Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Norway to North Atlantic Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia
                  Germans take Karelia from Russians
    
        Combat - Germans
            Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 2 submarines
                British defend with 1 destroyer; Americans defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                    Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 fighters in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                    Americans roll dice for 2 destroyers and 1 transport in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                    2 submarines owned by the Germans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                    1 transport owned by the Americans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                    Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 fighters in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1,67 expected hits
                    Americans roll dice for 2 destroyers in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
                    1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 destroyer owned by the Americans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
                Germans win with 1 bomber and 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 16
                Casualties for Germans: 2 submarines
                Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
            Battle in North Atlantic Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 3 fighters
                Russians defend with 1 submarine and 1 transport
                1 submarine owned by the Russians submerged
                    Germans roll dice for 3 fighters in North Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,50 expected hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 transport in North Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
                    1 transport owned by the Russians lost in North Atlantic Sea Zone
                Germans win with 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                Casualties for Russians: 1 transport
            Battle in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
                Germans attack with 1 battleship and 1 fighter
                British defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                    Germans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 fighter in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
                    British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 transport in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
                    1 battleship owned by the Germans lost in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
                1 fighter owned by the Germans retreated
                British win with 1 destroyer and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is -24
                Casualties for Germans: 1 battleship
            Battle in Libya
    
        Non Combat Move - Germans
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Changing ownership of Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians to Germans
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 fighter moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Crete
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Malta to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Libya
            1 infantry moved from Algeria to Tunisia
            1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium
            1 bomber moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
            3 fighters moved from North Atlantic Sea Zone to Finland
            2 infantry moved from Norway to Finland
            1 armour moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine S.S.R.
            1 armour moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Bessarabia
            2 infantry moved from Rumania to Bessarabia
            2 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Hungary to Bessarabia
            2 armour moved from Germany to Poland
            21 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
            1 aaGun moved from Germany to Poland
            1 aaGun moved from Austria to Germany
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Rumania
            1 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Northern Italy
    
        Place Units - Germans
            14 infantry placed in Germany
    
        Turn Complete - Germans
            Germans collect 44 PUs; end with 45 PUs
    

    Combat Hit Differential Summary :

    Americans regular : -0,17
    Russians regular : -0,17
    Germans regular : -2,67
    British regular : 1,33
    

    Savegame


  • @VictoryFirst It’s worse, actually. UK scored 0 hits in their attack with 3 @ 3 and 1 @ 4:
    (1/2)^3*(1/3) = ~4.125%

    Expanding that to include the US attackers and the fact that in total only one hit was scored between all of them would be more difficult. I could probably do it but will need a bit to hash it out.

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