TGC (German) vs. Doman (Allies) Original Europe

[The_Good_Captain]

@DoManMacgee

Beginning or round 5 Allies for Germany this game:
-1.88 in the Atlantic
-4.83on the east front
-0.59 in the ME/Africa

Net: -7.30

[The_Good_Captain]

@DoManMacgee

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 3 bombers and 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        3 armour moved from East Poland to Caucasus
        1 bomber moved from East Poland to Stalingrad
        1 fighter moved from East Poland to Caucasus
        1 infantry moved from East Poland to Belorussia
              Germans take Belorussia from Russians

    Combat - Germans
        Strategic bombing raid in Stalingrad
                Russians roll AA dice in Stalingrad : 1/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
            1 bomber owned by the Germans killed by AA in Stalingrad
            Bombing raid costs 0 PUs
        Battle in Caucasus
            Germans attack with 3 armour and 1 fighter
            Russians defend with 3 armour
                Germans roll dice for 3 armour and 1 fighter in Caucasus, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 2.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 armour in Caucasus, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Caucasus
                2 armour owned by the Russians lost in Caucasus
                Germans roll dice for 2 armour and 1 fighter in Caucasus, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 armour in Caucasus, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Caucasus
                1 armour owned by the Russians lost in Caucasus
            Germans win, taking Caucasus from Russians with 1 armour and 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
            Casualties for Germans: 2 armour
            Casualties for Russians: 3 armour

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 fighter moved from Caucasus to East Poland
        4 fighters moved from Germany to East Poland
        8 armour moved from Germany to East Poland
        18 armour, 10 artilleries and 52 infantry moved from East Poland to Belorussia
        1 infantry moved from Baltic States to Belorussia
        1 aaGun moved from Austria to Germany

    Place Units - Germans
        3 bombers and 1 infantry placed in Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 43 PUs; end with 44 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : 0.67
Germans regular : -0.50
Russians AA : 0.83

G5.tsvg

If the German bomber hadn’t gotten shot down, I have Moscow at 59%.
Since it was shot down, I have it at 43%. This says nothing for Berlin.

While the dice were poor for the Germans from the first turn and didn’t change, so too were they last game and so its now very important: What do you ascribe your ability to go from 89% German win in the last game to these results with essentially the same dice in this game?

[DoManMacgee]

@The_Good_Captain I said it to you privately in DMs but I’ll post in the forums for record keeping purposes:

I am rapidly coming to the realization that ME control may be much more vital than we gave it credit for, and rather than the current balance recommendations giving the Germans -1 DD in the Med (as well as denying them their initial 12 IPC bid) might be the better move overall than -1 TANK + -1 SUB

In this game specifically, Germany never took a single territory in the Middle East, which had the dual effect of denying Germany income (Which I feel amounted to ~1-2 “lost” tanks) while also boosting USA by ~1-2 Fighters over the course of the game. I don’t have concrete math to back up those guesses (you can probably go back and do the math yourself there) but I think the difference in the counts of power units (lost German Tanks, added US FTRs) contributed to a sizable % swing.

One last note, I feel like I did a better job guarding the Soviet Convoy over the course of this game Vs. last (mostly due to luck, of course). Any turn the USSR doesn’t have their convoy is effectively 1 lost INF for the endgame, which also adds up over the course of the game.

Will post my moves later. Your %s for Germany is much higher than I anticipated, but I got a few planes shot down over the last few turns so that may explain it.

[DoManMacgee]

@The_Good_Captain Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        3 armour moved from Karelia to Moscow
        3 infantry moved from Russia to Moscow
        5 infantry moved from Turkestan to Moscow
        1 bomber moved from Moscow to Leningrad
        1 bomber moved from Leningrad to Baltic Sea Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from Baltic Sea Sea Zone to Germany

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in Germany
            Russians attack with 1 bomber
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 3 bombers, 1 factory, 1 fighter and 3 infantry
                Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 1/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the Russians lost in Germany
            Germans win with 3 bombers, 1 fighter and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is -15
            Casualties for Russians: 1 bomber

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        1 aaGun moved from Stalingrad to Turkestan
        1 aaGun moved from Leningrad to Russia

    Place Units - Russians
        7 infantry placed in Moscow

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 15 PUs; end with 15 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans AA : 0.83

[DoManMacgee]

@The_Good_Captain

This game may end up having a very unexpected conclusion. OOL?

[DoManMacgee]

Other thoughts while waiting;

• The 4 extra Soviet INF off the bid (instead of the naval placement I tried last game) makes a world of difference when doing numbers-crunching. After losing the last game we did, I went back and checked what would have happened if Moscow had +4 INF, the % would have shifted to something like 6X% German-favored instead of the ~90% result we got.

• I tried comparing the Germany Vs. USA income spread for this game but it didn’t add up. Germany actually pulled in more money this game Vs. the previous one (probably from nabbing Caucasus a few times). Furthermore, USSR’s income was net lower as well.

Basically, I have no clue what happened. It may just be the alternate bid placement for Soviets but I suspect there’s something going on with the margins units lost during minor trades along the eastern front. You might want to do a deep dive on what exactly went on here after the game is over.

[DoManMacgee]

OOL was discussed offline:

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - British
        British buy 5 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 5 PUs; 

    Combat Move - British
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from Moscow: 4 fighters
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Russians to Moscow: 4 fighters
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to Germany
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from United Kingdom to English Channel Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 3 infantry and 2 transports moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Germany
        2 carriers and 4 fighters moved from English Channel Sea Zone to Danish Sea Sea Zone
        1 armour moved from France to Netherlands-Belgium
              British take Netherlands-Belgium from Germans
        1 armour moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
        1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Algeria to Morocco
        1 fighter moved from Iran to Moscow
        EDIT: British undo move 9.
        1 fighter moved from Iran to Moscow

    Combat - British
        Battle in Morocco
            British attack with 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 armour
                British roll dice for 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Morocco, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Morocco, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Morocco
                1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Morocco
            British win, taking Morocco from Germans with 1 artillery and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 1 armour
        Battle in Germany
            British attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 3 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 aaGun, 3 bombers, 1 factory, 1 fighter and 3 infantry
                Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 3 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 0/6 hits, 2.17 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 3 bombers, 1 fighter and 3 infantry in Germany, round 2 : 0/7 hits, 2.17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 3 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 5/6 hits, 2.17 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 3 bombers, 1 fighter and 3 infantry in Germany, round 3 : 3/7 hits, 2.17 expected hits
                3 infantry owned by the British lost in Germany
                2 bombers owned by the Germans and 3 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 bomber in Germany, round 4 : 0/3 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 fighter in Germany, round 4 : 2/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the British and 1 armour owned by the British lost in Germany
                British roll dice for 1 bomber in Germany, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 fighter in Germany, round 5 : 0/2 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in Germany
                British roll dice for 1 bomber in Germany, round 6 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber in Germany, round 6 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the Germans lost in Germany
            British win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 48
            Casualties for British: 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 3 bombers, 1 fighter and 3 infantry

    Non Combat Move - British
        1 bomber moved from Germany to Russia

    Place Units - British
        5 infantry placed in United Kingdom
        1 transport placed in English Channel Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - British
        British collect 29 PUs; end with 34 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans AA : -0.17
Germans regular : -0.50
British regular : -0.17

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 6 infantry and 3 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        6 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
        6 infantry and 3 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
        3 fighters moved from Russia to Moscow
        4 fighters moved from Danish Sea Sea Zone to Moscow

    Non Combat Move - Americans

    Place Units - Americans
        3 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
        6 infantry placed in United States

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Americans collect 40 PUs; end with 40 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

ff645843-03b5-44dc-914e-abe7b7c17c83-AAE-game10-A5.tsvg

That outcome in Berlin was <10% BTW. Sorry.

[The_Good_Captain]

@DoManMacgee

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 14 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        18 armour, 10 artilleries and 54 infantry moved from Belorussia to Moscow
        8 armour moved from East Poland to Moscow
        1 armour moved from Caucasus to Iraq
              Germans take Iran from Middle_East
              Germans take Iraq from Middle_East
        5 fighters moved from East Poland to Moscow

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Moscow
            Germans attack with 26 armour, 10 artilleries, 5 fighters and 54 infantry
            British defend with 1 fighter; Americans defend with 7 fighters; Russians defend with 1 aaGun, 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 1 factory, 5 fighters and 73 infantry
                Russians roll AA dice in Moscow : 1/5 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                1 fighter owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 26 armour, 10 artilleries, 4 fighters and 54 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 31/94 hits, 29.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 13 fighters and 73 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 31/93 hits, 35.33 expected hits
                31 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                31 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 26 armour, 10 artilleries, 4 fighters and 23 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 30/63 hits, 23.83 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 13 fighters and 42 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 24/62 hits, 25.00 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the Germans and 23 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                30 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 26 armour, 9 artilleries and 4 fighters in Moscow, round 4 : 13/39 hits, 18.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 13 fighters and 12 infantry in Moscow, round 4 : 19/32 hits, 15.00 expected hits
                9 artilleries owned by the Germans and 10 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                12 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 artillery owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 16 armour and 4 fighters in Moscow, round 5 : 7/20 hits, 10.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 3 armour, 3 artilleries and 13 fighters in Moscow, round 5 : 11/19 hits, 10.67 expected hits
                11 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                1 fighter owned by the Russians, 3 armour owned by the Russians and 3 artilleries owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 5 armour and 4 fighters in Moscow, round 6 : 4/9 hits, 4.50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 12 fighters in Moscow, round 6 : 9/12 hits, 8.00 expected hits
                4 fighters owned by the Germans and 5 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                4 fighters owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
            Russians win with 8 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -82
            Casualties for Germans: 26 armour, 10 artilleries, 5 fighters and 54 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 3 armour, 4 artilleries, 5 fighters and 73 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Germans

    Place Units - Germans
        14 infantry placed in Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 44 PUs; end with 46 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : -0.00
Germans regular : -0.33
Russians AA : 0.17

G6 GG.tsvg whatever you did, please do it again lol - same sides please. You’re doing the lords work.

[VictoryFirst]

Net TUV Round 1

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EF: -7.31
Atlantic/WA: -18.89
Africa/Med: -0.44
Total: -26.64

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Net TUV Round 2

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EF: -12.74
Atlantic/WA: -4.19
Africa/Med: -27.59
Total: -44.52

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Net TUV Round 3

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EF: -2.68
Atlantic/WA: -4.19
Africa/Med: -24.13
Total: -31.00

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Net TUV round 4

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EF: +2.43
Atlantic/WA: +10.89
Africa/Med: -22.61
Total: -9.29

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Net TUV Round 5

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EF: -14.73
Atlantic/WA: +10.89
Africa/Med: -24.13
Germany: -13.98
Total: -41.95
Total without Germany: -27.97

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Net TUV Round 6

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EF: -14.73
Atlantic/WA: +10.89
Africa/Med: -24.13
Germany: -13.98
Moscow: +19.22
Total: -22.73

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Overall TUV swing throughout the entire game
EF: +11
Atlantic/WA: +64
Africa/Med: +2
Germany: -33
Total: +44
Total (without combined attack on Germany): +77
(Moscow: -82)

[VictoryFirst]

I think it’s safe to say that the Germans in each battle lost more TUV on average than in the last game. Also, the overall TUV swing is a bit lower. That might be a part of the explanation why the odds for Moscow are significantly lower. Germany got the wrong dice at the wrong moments in this game.

[The_Good_Captain]

@VictoryFirst Thanks!

[VictoryFirst]

So to elaborate on what I was calculating here:

“Net TUV swing” is the difference between the Average TUV swing and the Actual TUV swing of each battle. So, a completely average game should have this number as close to 0 as possible. It is more or less equivalent to the Net Pieces that TGC calculated but with the IPC-value of each piece factored in (so -1.00 Net Pieces could mean one 3-IPC infantry or one 15-IPC bomber lost, this would be respectively around -3.00 and -15.00 with Net TUV swing).
So, the battles in the Atlantic generally have more extreme numbers because the naval units are far more expensive than land units.

“Overall TUV swing throughout the entire game” is just a sum of the TUV swings of each battle. This number doesn’t really have an average but it should be compared to other games. It gives a sense for how many IPC worth of units the Germans killed versus how many they lost themselves, or in other words, how much they “gained”.

The names of the calculations might be a bit confusing though, I would rather see the second calculation be called “Net TUV swing”, the first one perhaps “TUV Swing Differential”?