DouchManMacgee (G) Vs. The Dream Team (TGC/Kasper) (Allies) - AAE Round 5 ~No Sealion No Problem~

[DoManMacgee]

@The_Good_Captain @kwaspek104

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 3 fighters and 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        8 armour moved from Germany to Baltic States
        20 infantry moved from Poland to Baltic States
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Rumania to Ukraine S.S.R.
        11 armour, 4 artilleries and 19 infantry moved from East Poland to Ukraine S.S.R.
        1 infantry moved from Bulgaria to Rumania
        1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Egypt to Palestine
              Germans take Palestine from Middle_East
        1 infantry moved from Tunisia to Algeria
        1 battleship and 1 destroyer moved from Western Mediterranean Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Hungary to East Poland
        6 fighters moved from Poland to Germany

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Ukraine S.S.R.
            Germans attack with 11 armour, 5 artilleries and 20 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 artillery
                Germans roll dice for 11 armour, 5 artilleries and 20 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 15/36 hits, 11.33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 artillery owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R.
            Germans win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians with 11 armour, 5 artilleries and 20 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
            Casualties for Russians: 1 artillery
        Battle in Baltic States
            Germans attack with 8 armour and 20 infantry
            Russians defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 8 armour and 20 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 4/28 hits, 7.33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Baltic States, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Baltic States
            Germans win, taking Baltic States from Russians with 8 armour and 20 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
        Battle in South Atlantic Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 1 battleship and 1 destroyer
            Americans defend with 1 transport
                Germans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 destroyer in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 destroyer in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 1 transport in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                1 transport owned by the Americans lost in South Atlantic Sea Zone
            Germans win with 1 battleship and 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for Americans: 1 transport

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 aaGun moved from Northern Italy to Austria
        1 aaGun moved from East Poland to Ukraine S.S.R.

    Place Units - Germans
        3 fighters and 3 infantry placed in Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 39 PUs; end with 40 PUs

  EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Ukraine S.S.R.: 11 armour
  EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Baltic States: 11 armour

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : -0.33
Russians regular : -0.67
Germans regular : -1.00

Let it be known that if this was a live game I would have impulsively walked into Baltic States with an under-defended stack and got wiped.

AAE-game5-G2-Edit.tsvg

[kwaspek104]

@DoManMacgee @The_Good_Captain

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        1 armour moved from Karelia to Finland
              Russians take Finland from Germans
        1 armour moved from Karelia to Vyborg
              Russians take Vyborg from Germans
        1 armour moved from Vyborg to Karelia
        1 armour moved from Finland to Karelia
        2 infantry moved from Karelia to Russia
        1 infantry moved from Belorussia to Moscow
        4 artilleries moved from Stalingrad to Turkestan
        7 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Turkestan

    Combat - Russians

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        4 artilleries moved from Leningrad to Russia
        17 infantry moved from Leningrad to Russia
        1 aaGun moved from Moscow to Belorussia
        1 aaGun moved from Russia to Moscow
        1 submarine moved from Soviet Convoy Sea Zone to Atlantic Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from White Sea Sea Zone to North Atlantic Sea Zone

    Place Units - Russians
        7 infantry placed in Moscow

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 23 PUs; end with 23 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

r3.tsvg

[The_Good_Captain]

@kwaspek104

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Changing PUs for Americans from 44 to 43
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        Americans buy 1 artillery, 1 fighter, 1 infantry and 3 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        1 infantry moved from France to Vichy France
              Americans take Vichy France from Germans
        1 transport moved from Bay of Biscay Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone
        2 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 3 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone
        2 destroyers moved from Mid-Atlantic Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from British Convoy 3 Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to Northern Italy
        1 fighter moved from United Kingdom to Karelia
        1 fighter moved from Leningrad to Moscow

    Combat - Americans
        Strategic bombing raid in Northern Italy
            Bombing raid in Northern Italy rolls: 5 and costs: 5 PUs.
            Bombing raid costs 5 PUs
        Battle in South Atlantic Sea Zone
            Americans attack with 2 destroyers, 2 infantry, 1 submarine and 4 transports
            Germans defend with 1 battleship and 1 destroyer
                Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 2 destroyers and 4 transports in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits
            Units damaged: 1 battleship owned by the Germans
                Germans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 destroyer in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                2 transports owned by the Americans lost in South Atlantic Sea Zone
                Americans roll dice for 1 submarine in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 2 destroyers and 2 transports in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 3 : 2/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 destroyer in South Atlantic Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                1 transport owned by the Americans lost in South Atlantic Sea Zone
                1 battleship owned by the Germans and 1 destroyer owned by the Germans lost in South Atlantic Sea Zone
            Americans win with 2 destroyers, 1 submarine and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12
            Casualties for Americans: 3 transports
            Casualties for Germans: 1 battleship and 1 destroyer

    Non Combat Move - Americans
        2 infantry moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Morocco
        1 bomber moved from Northern Italy to France

    Place Units - Americans
        1 artillery, 1 fighter and 1 infantry placed in United States
        3 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Americans collect 45 PUs; end with 45 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : 1.33
Germans regular : 0.67

USA3.tsvg +2.01 Germany

[DoManMacgee]

@The_Good_Captain @kwaspek104

Game History

Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 1 bomber and 5 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        5 artilleries and 20 infantry moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Belorussia
              Germans take Belorussia from Russians
        1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from East Poland to Belorussia
        19 armour and 20 infantry moved from Baltic States to Belorussia
        1 fighter moved from Germany to East Poland
        8 fighters moved from Germany to East Poland
        1 infantry moved from Rumania to Ukraine S.S.R.
        1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Palestine to Syria

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Syria
            Germans attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry
            British defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry in Syria, round 2 : 2/5 hits, 1.50 expected hits
                Middle_East roll dice for 1 infantry in Syria, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Syria
            Germans win, taking Syria from Middle_East with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 aaGun moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to East Poland
        1 aaGun moved from Austria to Germany

    Place Units - Germans
        1 bomber and 5 infantry placed in Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 39 PUs; end with 40 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : 0.50
Middle_East regular : -0.33

AAE-game5-G4.tsvg

[The_Good_Captain]

@DoManMacgee @kwaspek104 okay - you already went but I was going to point out and offer to give you back 4 IPC bc the UK should have attacked the E. Poland forces and exchanged the UK bomber for the two inf and arty there.

Instead of giving Germany 79% on Moscow, they would be reduced to 59%.

There is a short list of other deficiencies on the allies as well which can be easily corrected in a future game. I just wanted to point out this particular situation right now.

[kwaspek104]

@DoManMacgee @The_Good_Captain

Game History

Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        5 armour moved from Karelia to Moscow
        4 artilleries and 19 infantry moved from Russia to Moscow
        4 artilleries and 7 infantry moved from Turkestan to Moscow
        1 transport moved from North Atlantic Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from Atlantic Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone

    Non Combat Move - Russians

    Place Units - Russians
        7 infantry placed in Moscow

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 22 PUs; end with 24 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

final-stand.tsvg

[The_Good_Captain]

@kwaspek104 @DoManMacgee

Game History

Round: 4

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 1 armour, 2 artilleries, 2 infantry and 3 transports; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Americans
        3 infantry moved from Morocco to Algeria
        1 infantry moved from Vichy France to Northern Italy
              Americans take Northern Italy from Germans

    Combat - Americans
        Battle in Algeria
            Americans attack with 3 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 infantry
                Americans roll dice for 3 infantry in Algeria, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Algeria, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 3 infantry in Algeria, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Algeria, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 3 infantry in Algeria, round 4 : 0/3 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Algeria, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Americans roll dice for 3 infantry in Algeria, round 5 : 2/3 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Algeria, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Algeria
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Algeria
            Americans win, taking Algeria from Germans with 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Americans: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Americans
        1 transport moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Western Mediterranean Sea Zone
        2 destroyers and 1 submarine moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Western Mediterranean Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from United States to United Kingdom
        1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
        1 aaGun, 1 artillery, 4 infantry and 3 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone
        1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 4 infantry moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Morocco
        1 fighter moved from Karelia to Moscow

    Place Units - Americans
        1 armour, 2 artilleries and 2 infantry placed in United States
        3 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Americans collect 50 PUs; end with 52 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : 0.00
Germans regular : -0.33

USA4.tsvg barring dice beyond +2 or some overhaul to the German play, this will be the last time the Axis have it so good.

[The_Good_Captain]

@kwaspek104 @DoManMacgee

USA4 bomber edit.tsvg

[DoManMacgee]

@The_Good_Captain said in DouchManMacgee (G) Vs. The Dream Team (TGC/Kasper) (Allies) - AAE Round 5 ~No Sealion No Problem~:

@DoManMacgee @kwaspek104 UK should have attacked the E. Poland forces and exchanged the UK bomber for the two inf and arty there.

Can you explain this one to me? You potentially lose 1 FTR/1 BOMB if you roll poorly in exchange for 3 HP. If you pull off the idea move then yes you only drop 1 Bomber in exchange for the land units but that is a strangely risky move.

I’m willing to rewind to B3 if you want to manually restore the game-state and replay from there.

[DoManMacgee]

“ideal move” not “idea move*”

[The_Good_Captain]

@DoManMacgee

Well, if you remember why you wanted to trade bombers for transports or risk the air attack on @kwaspek104 transports in the previous game, then I feel I’m pushing at an open door.

But I can articulate it further: Given that we are sitting on only a 21% chance to win as the Allies, it makes sense to place a bet in which 75% of the time, we destroy these three pieces in exchange for a single unit that is otherwise useless on defense and thereby gain an additional 20% chance to win. There is even a further argument that @kwaspek104 should have ensured this outcome by launching his bomber at those units in order to ensure fighter survival. But we would like to take the house odds at this point.

[The_Good_Captain]

@DoManMacgee @kwaspek104

for all the marbles (or not, who knows)

UK fighters [dice 2d6]
UK bomber [dice 1d6]

Germans [dice 3d6]

[dicebot]

2d6: 2, 6
1d6: 5
3d6: 3, 5, 1

[DoManMacgee]

@kwaspek104 @The_Good_Captain

You guys got your ~25% outcome. GG

[DoManMacgee]

Turn Summary for Completeness/dice analysis:

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 13 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Moscow: 1 bomber
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Belorussia: 1 infantry
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Poland: 1 infantry
            EDIT: Changing PUs for Germans from 1 to 2
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        19 armour, 6 artilleries and 42 infantry moved from Belorussia to Moscow
        9 fighters moved from East Poland to Moscow
        1 bomber moved from Germany to Moscow
        EDIT: Germans undo move 3.
        EDIT: Germans undo move 2.
        19 armour, 6 artilleries and 41 infantry moved from Belorussia to Moscow
        9 fighters moved from East Poland to Moscow
        1 bomber moved from Germany to Moscow
        1 infantry moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Stalingrad
              Germans take Stalingrad from Russians
        1 infantry moved from Poland to Germany
        1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Syria to Iran
              Germans take Iran from Middle_East
        1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Syria to Iran
              Germans take Iran from Middle_East
        1 armour moved from Iran to Caucasus

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in Moscow
            Germans attack with 19 armour, 6 artilleries, 1 bomber, 9 fighters and 41 infantry
            British defend with 3 armour, 4 fighters and 2 infantry; Americans defend with 1 bomber and 2 fighters; Russians defend with 1 aaGun, 5 armour, 9 artilleries, 1 bomber, 1 factory, 1 fighter and 42 infantry
                Russians roll AA dice in Moscow : 2/10 hits, 1.67 expected hits
                2 fighters owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 19 armour, 6 artilleries, 1 bomber, 7 fighters and 41 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 21/74 hits, 23.50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 8 armour, 9 artilleries, 2 bombers, 7 fighters and 44 infantry in Moscow, round 2 : 29/70 hits, 25.33 expected hits
                29 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                17 infantry owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the Russians, 1 bomber owned by the Americans and 2 infantry owned by the British lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 19 armour, 6 artilleries, 1 bomber, 7 fighters and 12 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 16/45 hits, 18.67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 8 armour, 9 artilleries, 7 fighters and 25 infantry in Moscow, round 3 : 20/49 hits, 18.67 expected hits
                6 artilleries owned by the Germans, 12 infantry owned by the Germans and 2 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                16 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 17 armour, 1 bomber and 7 fighters in Moscow, round 4 : 10/25 hits, 12.67 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 8 armour, 9 artilleries, 7 fighters and 9 infantry in Moscow, round 4 : 15/33 hits, 13.33 expected hits
                15 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                9 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 artillery owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
                Germans roll dice for 2 armour, 1 bomber and 7 fighters in Moscow, round 5 : 8/10 hits, 5.17 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 8 armour, 8 artilleries and 7 fighters in Moscow, round 5 : 11/23 hits, 10.00 expected hits
                1 bomber owned by the Germans, 7 fighters owned by the Germans and 2 armour owned by the Germans lost in Moscow
                8 artilleries owned by the Russians lost in Moscow
            Russians win with 8 armour and 7 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is -167
            Casualties for Germans: 19 armour, 6 artilleries, 1 bomber, 9 fighters and 41 infantry
            Casualties for Russians: 9 artilleries, 1 bomber and 42 infantry
            Casualties for British: 2 infantry
            Casualties for Americans: 1 bomber
        Battle in Caucasus
            Germans attack with 1 armour
            British defend with 1 infantry
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Caucasus, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry in Caucasus, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Caucasus
                1 infantry owned by the British lost in Caucasus
            Russians win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is -2
            Casualties for Germans: 1 armour
            Casualties for British: 1 infantry

    Non Combat Move - Germans

    Place Units - Germans
        13 infantry placed in Germany

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Germans collect 37 PUs; end with 39 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : 8.33
Germans regular : -4.50
Russians AA : 0.33

The Good Guys Did It.tsvg

[The_Good_Captain]

@DoManMacgee in a far too submissive position, 27% is not good enough and there were inefficiencies on our part. go again?