Mikawagunichi analysis of PTV results

[gamerman01]

Mika going crazy with analysis:
Enjoy

[mikawagunichi]

There are certainly more ways to splice the data, but here are some initial findings and some commentary regarding historical PTV win rates, bids, player ELO etc.

1. Player quality matters far more than bid (no surprise).
2. The game was pretty clearly imbalanced in favor of the Axis in the early years (2020-2021), with Axis winning percentages in the 63-71% range. I personally wasn’t here at the very beginning (discovered the game in 2021) but I recall there being some significant changes (limiting the carrier scramble, partitioning the SZ off Malaya) that probably hurt the Axis and made the game more balanced.
3. In 2022-2023 bids trended up and the overall Axis winning percent dropped to the 54-56% range.
4. If you exclude lower tier players, the results become even more balanced.
5. The Axis winning percentage has plummeted so far in 2024, even though the average bid is at an all time high.
6. Bid amount is almost certainly a lagging indicator (in response to game results). So it may be reasonable to expect the average bid to increase if the current trend stays as is.
7. If we can keep up the current pace, we may set the record for number of PTV league games this year, surpassing the high water mark set in 2021.

[Daaras]

Well, I guess the biggest question I have now is why the absolute cliff dive of axis win percentage. roughly -30% is crazy. Are people trying new dumb strategies, punting, or is it an influx of new players who suck at axis (me) ?

[Daaras]

@mikawagunichi another question I have is what are the actual bids. We’d need some other players to comment on this though. I usually feel so far behind as axis and then I never catch up.